The Socialists have won an absolute majority in the French parliamentary elections, giving the new President, François

Hollande, a free hand to implement the key measures of his presidential programme.

The Socialists and their allies won an absolute majority in the National Assembly without the need for support from the Greens or

the far-left ‘Left Front’ party, and now have unprecedented freedom to govern. As well as the Presidency and the National Assemb ly,

the Socialists also have control of the Senate, having won, in 2011, a majority in the upper house for the first time in the Fifth

Republic. The Socialists and its allies also govern a majority of French cities and all but one of France’s regional councils .

This situation gives Mr Hollande a free rein to pass reforms promised in his presidential election manifesto, including a tax hike for

France’s highest earners. The President will also have backing for a new call at European level for growth measures - a position that

seems to puts him at odds with Angela Merkel’s austerity doctrine.

All members of the government passed the electoral test and there are likely to be few changes. Elsewhere, the far-right National

Front re-entered parliament, with 22-year old Marion Maréchal Le Pen becoming France’s youngest deputy since 1791.

Even the most optimistic predictions had not foreseen such a

large majority for the Socialists (PS). The party of the new

President, François Hollande, has 280 seats in the National

Assembly. This number increases to 314 with the support of

representatives of the moderate centre-left ‘Parti Radical de

Gauche’ (PRG - 12 seats) and other left-wing groups, such as the

Republican Movement, who entered an electoral pact with the PS

(and who won 22 seats).

With the Senate already controlled by the Left, Mr Hollande and

his new Prime Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, will have a free hand

to enact the laws proposed in the Socialists’ manifesto.

Socialist candidates in the parliamentary elections benefited from

the success of Mr Hollande. Every minister in the new government

was reelected, even those who were in difficult situations in their

constituencies. (This is in contrast to 2007, when Alain Juppé lost

his seat shortly after being named in the government of President

Nicolas Sarkozy).

As a result, the traditional ministerial reshuffle that occurs after

parliamentary elections should be very minor. It seems likely that

only a couple of deputy ministers will change or be appointed to

reflect the support of other parties in the left-wing parliamentary

alliance.

However, there are some concerns for the Socialists. The record

low turnout of 55.4% has somewhat distorted the landscape.

Some leading Socialist figures were defeated: Jack Lang, a former

minister, lost in Vosges (in Lorraine, North-East France); Segolène

Royal, the PS’s presidential candidate in 2007 and former partner

of Mr Hollande, lost in La Rochelle (Western France) to a dissident

Socialist candidate, Olivier Falorni. (Mr Falorni had rejected the

party's request to stand down when Ms Royal scored higher in

the first round, and controversially received a tweeted message of

support from Mr Hollande's new partner, Valérie Trierweiler.)

Ms Royal’s defeat means that Mr Hollande cannot appoint her to

the post of President of the National Assembly, paving the way

for a new race for that office.

This clear victory means that the Socialists will not have to give

into pressure from the Greens and the far-left ‘Left Front’ (FdG),

and their demands for even greater State spending.

However, with 17 deputies the Greens will be able to constitute

for the first time a proper parliamentary group in the National

Assembly. This status will give the Greens more money, more

political clout and more media attention. With two ministers and

a formal parliamentary group, the Greens have influence that

extends beyond their number of deputies - due in the main to an

advantageous alliance with the Socialists that was agreed before

the presidential election.

On the contrary, with only ten seats, the FdG does not reach the

threshold of 15 seats that is required to form a parliamentary

group. The FdG’s presidential candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,

lost in the first round of the parliamentary elections on 10 June.

With a total of 228 seats - a number that includes its centre-right

allies in New Centre party (NC, 12 seats) and the Radical Party

(PRV, six seats) - the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) faces

an identity crisis. Among the forthcoming challenges for the party

of the former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, is the redefinition of its

doctrine, which still bears the mark of Mr Sarkozy’s shift

rightwards, aimed at attracting voters away from the extreme-

right National Front (FN).

Claude Guéant - a hardline interior minister under Mr Sarkozy -

lost his seat, as did Michèle Alliot-Marie, a former foreign

minister.

The Democratic Movement (MoDem), the party of centrist leader

and former presidential candidate François Bayrou, won only two

seats. Mr Bayrou was himself defeated.

While the leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, was

defeated by around 100 votes in the north-eastern constituency

of Hénin-Beaumont, the extreme right was successful elsewhere.

Marion Maréchal Le Pen (the niece of Marine Le Pen. and at 22

France’s youngest deputy since 1791) and lawyer Gilbert Collard

won seats in the National Assembly. Jacques Bompard, a former

FN member, was elected in the south-eastern city of Orange and

will bring the number of far-right representatives in the lower

house of Parliament to three.

Despite this symbolic entrance, the difference between the FN’s

support (17.9% in the presidential election) and the number of

seats the party won in the National Assembly has revived the

debate over reform of the voting system for parliamentary

elections, where the second round can see supporters of

mainstream parties join together to defeat extremist candidates.

Turnout in Sunday’s second round was 55.4% - a record low.

However, this is the fourth time in eight weeks that voters have

been asked to go to the polls (in two rounds of presidential

elections and two rounds of parliamentary elections), and there is

a sense of electoral fatigue.

The low turnout sparked some calls to alter the electoral

timetable. Since 2002, parliamentary elections have taken place

straight after the presidential election, helping to give the

President a strong parliamentary majority and ensuring more

coherent government, but also somewhat reducing the power

and independence of the National Assembly.

For the first time, French citizens living abroad have been able to

elect Members of Parliament. Eleven super-constituencies were

created, the PS winning seven of them, including five of the seven

constituencies covering parts of Europe.

In terms of domestic politics, the results of the parliamentary

elections put the Socialists and their allies in position of

unprecedented power. Parliament is due to reopen on 26 June

and François Hollande is likely to call an extraordinary session

that will last until 3 August and which will examine the first bills of

his new government.

Public finance reform will be a major issue in the early months.

After the publication of a report by the French Court of Auditors

(due in late June or early July) the government will unveil its first

public finance measures. At stake are tens of billions of euros of

additional levies that were included in Mr Hollande’s pre-election

proposal for a new tax framework: the reinstatement of a wealth

tax, an end to tax cuts on overtime, and an end to tax cuts on

inheritance rights. Other bills, including a promised clean-up of

the banking sector, will be postponed to the autumn.

Bills on employment and industry issues will be first discussed

with social stakeholders and trade unions during the social

summit, to be held on 9-10 July. The bills include measures to

end abusive social security arrangements in companies, to restore

the retirement age to 60 for people who began work at the age

of 18, and equality in the workplace. The debates on these bills

are likely to continue beyond the extraordinary session.

The Socialists’ victory in the parliamentary elections does not

have any real significance for the euro crisis, although it does

help to reinforce Mr Hollande’s position in discussions with

Angela Merkel, especially on the issue of austerity measures. It

also means that his alternative to austerity will now be put to the

test: its success or otherwise may have a bearing not only on the

fortunes of the French President and government, but also on the

German federal parliamentary elections, due to be held in autumn

2013.

The establishment of similar growth measures at a European level

will be another challenge for Mr Hollande, who will be in Rome

on Friday 22 June with the leaders of Italy, Germany and Spain as

a prelude to the next summit of European leaders, which will take

place on 28-29 June.

Parliamentary elections

Composition of the National Assembly