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“The Impact of the Bush Presidency ON Public Opinion: Partisanship and Polarization”Kathleen A. FrankovicEvaluating the George W. Bush PresidencyUH-Hilo July 29-31, 2009
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“The Impact of the Bush Presidency ON Public Opinion: Partisanship and Polarization”
Kathleen A. FrankovicEvaluating the George W. Bush Presidency
UH-Hilo July 29-31, 2009
OVERVIEW• Presentation will examine:
– Polarization between parties and partisans in the 21st century
– Changes in the structure of opinion and voting
• The major questions: 1) whether these changes are directly attributable to the Bush Presidency or are part of longer-term developments in American society, and 2) whether they continue
WHY EXPECT POLARIZATION?We often assume there has been
polarization in the last decade, whether elite or general public– Changes in media environment: 24-hour news
cycles, assumption that news outlets are not objective, point-counterpoint debate
– Accusations of bias in the media comes from both sides (though in the last 20 years mostly from the right)
– The 2004 electoral strategies
MOMENTS OF INCREASED PARTISANSHIP
• 1990’s: Thomas nomination, Clinton impeachment, rise of talk radio
• Disputed 2000 election
• Development of more sophisticated partisan spin apparatus
• 2004 election focus on mobilizing the “base”
MEASURES OF POLARIZATION
• During the Bush Presidency, polls increasingly came under attack– Polls have always been attacked by those
who disagree but…– The criticism increased during the 1998
Clinton impeachment – It may even have been exacerbated by exit
poll concerns and criticisms in the 2000 and 2004 elections
Partisan Criticism: NOT NEW
“The whole scheme is one of fraud and debauchery, and may be taken as the first step to do away with popular elections under the law, and place the molding of public opinion in the hands of millionaires and corporations.”
-- Chicago Democratic Party, 1896
PARTISAN POLARIZATION IS MAINLY ABOUT LEARNING
• Americans have learned how they are supposed to respond in elections and to pollsters
• They have also learned how to respond to information that challenges their expectations
• The media environment encourages rapid response as the 24-hour news cycle requires point-counterpoint behavior and political figures supply it
DID THE BUSH PRESIDENCY INCREASE
POLARIZATION?
IS POLARIZATION STILL INCREASING?
Polarization: PARTISANSHIP IN ELECTIONS
17
23
18
24
27
32
31
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
NUMBER OF STATES
Number of States Outperforming Either Party’s National Average by More than 5 Points
1984 17
2008 31
Evidence: CHANGES IN PARTY-LINE VOTING 1992-2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Republicans Democrats
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
WITHIN-PARTY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VOTE FOR OWN PARTY AND OPPOSING PARTY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES (CBS NEWS Exit Polls)
PARTISANSHIP AND VOTING: 3-CANDIDATE RACE 1992
0102030405060708090
100
Republicans Democrats
Clinton
Bush
Perot
Difference = 63 Difference = 67REP-DEM % DEM–REP %
REPERCENTAGING WITHOUT PEROT, POLARIZATION STILL REMAINS BELOW LEVEL IN LATER ELECTIONS
PARTISANSHIP AND VOTING:2-CANDIDATE RACE 2004
0102030405060708090
100
Republicans Democrats
Kerry
Bush
Difference = 87 Difference = 78REP%-DEM % DEM%–REP %
PARTISANSHIP AND VOTING:2-CANDIDATE RACE 2008
0102030405060708090
100
Republicans Democrats
Obama
McCain
Difference = 79 Difference = 81REP%-DEM % DEM%–REP %
Polarization: APPROVAL
SOURCE: Pew Research Center
Polarization: APPROVAL
25
25
46
38
45
51
61
NIXON
CARTER
REAGAN
BUSH
CLINTON
BUSH
OBAMA
BETWEEN-PARTY PERCENTAGEDIFFERENCES EARLY IN ADMINISTRATIONS
Polarization: PARTISANS LEARNED WHAT TO SAY IN POLLS
6/92 GHW Bush 34% APPROVAL RATING
Republicans 55%
Democrats 18%
REP-DEM APPROVAL: 37 pts.3/06 GW Bush 34% APPROVAL RATING
Republicans 74%
Democrats 6%
REP-DEM APPROVAL: 68 pts.CBS News/NY Times Polls
OPINION STRUCTURE: Party and Ideology
HAS PARTISAN DISTRIBUTION CHANGED? Republican Democrat
1/2001 23% 35 +121/2005 31% 34 + 312/2005 28% 32 + 41/2007 25% 36 +114/2009 21% 38 +177/2009 23% 35 +12
CBS News/NY Times Polls
OPINION STRUCTURE: Party and Ideology
HAVE PARTISANS BECOME MORE IDEOLOGICAL?
REPUBLICANS: LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE1/2001 13% 47 +341/2005 5% 59 +5412/2005 5% 60 +551/2007 6% 53 +474/2009 9% 51 +427/2009 7% 53 +45
CBS News/NY Times Polls
OPINION STRUCTURE: Party and Ideology
HAVE PARTISANS BECOME MORE IDEOLOGICAL?
DEMOCRATS: LIBERAL CONSERVATIVE1/2001 31% 22 - 91/2005 34% 19 -1512/2005 31% 16 -151/2007 40% 17 -234/2009 40% 16 -247/2009 32% 19 -13
CBS News/NY Times Polls
OPINION STRUCTURE: Party and Ideology
IDEOLOGICAL CONSISTENCY ROSE WITH INCREASING NUMBERS
• Republicans became more ideological in the Bush first term (post-9/11)
• Democrats became more ideological as they increased in numbers in the second Bush Administration (post-Schiavo and post-Katrina)
PERCEPTIONS OF POLARIZATION
PARTY RATINGS
NOT FAVORABLE – FAVORABLE
6/2001 6/2009Republicans’ Views
of Democrats 40 56
Democrats’ Views of Republicans 57 77
CBS News/NY Times Polls
PERCEPTIONS OF POLARIZATION
DO MEMBERS OF THE OTHER PARTY SHARE YOUR NON-POLITICAL VALUES?
Yes NoRepublicans on Democrats
7/2005 56% 40
3/2007 43% 53Democrats on Republicans
7/2005 47% 493/2007 46% 51
CBS News/NY Times Polls
SOURCES OF POLARIZATION
WHEN DID THE CHANGES EMERGE?• The Clinton impeachment brought some
polarization, though there was less division in traditionally non-political areas
HOW DO THE CHANGES DEVELOP?• New areas of partisanship – beyond
traditional areas of party differences (economics, social issues) -- as public learns the expected poll responses
Polarization: APPROVAL
PARTISANSHIP CONTINUES EVEN IN HISTORICALLY LESS PARTISAN AREAS
FOREIGN POLICY APPROVAL
TOTAL REP. DEM
Clinton 5/99 55% 41% 79% +38
Bush 6/01 47% 73% 28% -45
Bush 1/05 42% 78% 15% -63
Obama 6/09 53% 26% 78% -52
CBS News/NY Times Polls
Polarization: OTHER ISSUES
Was U.S. military action against Iraq the right thing to do?
1991 2003 2006
Total YES 70% 69% 41%
Republicans 84% 87% 71%
Democrats 59% 50% 20%
PARTY DIFFERENCE 25 37 51
CBS News/NY Times Polls
Polarization: NATIONAL SECURITY
WHAT SHOULD BE DONE WITH GUANTANAMO?
6/09 Rep Dem
Continue to operate 60% 29%
Close 26 60
CBS News/NY Times Polls
Polarization: JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS
SHOULD THOMAS BE CONFIRMED?
Yes No Not Sure
Before Hearings
Republicans 32% 6 58
Democrats 19% 14 61
After Hearings
Republicans 77% 18 6
Democrats 46 42 11CBS News/NY Times Polls
Polarization: JUDICIAL NOMINATIONS
SHOULD … BE CONFIRMED? First Impressions
Yes No Not SureRoberts (8/05)
Republicans 46% 4 46 Democrats 13% 16 67
Sotomayor (6/09) Republicans 17% 22 56 Democrats 56% 2 40
CBS News/NY Times Polls
TODAY’S ENVIRONMENT
• Americans have learned what they are supposed to believe
• While party distribution has changed little, party divisions have increased
• Partisan polarization is high, giving rise to the notion of a culture war and reaffirming the prevalence of the Red State/Blue State concept
• Other divisions reinforce party differences: religion and religiosity, race, urbanity
• Consequently, when partisans are on the same side it becomes news
THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL ATTACKS ON POLLS
• The political nature of the attacks reduces belief in polls’ “precision”
• Attacks are magnified by the “echo chamber” of news shows and internet blogs -- from BOTH sides – and matter more in intense campaigns with polarization between the parties
• BUT… EVEN PARTISAN ATTACKERS OFTEN RAISE IMPORTANT METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS: WEIGHTING, QUESTION WORDING, INTERVIEWER BIAS
THE IMPACT OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY
• Overall, there has been little change in either party distribution or ideological composition
• Some items continue to show long-term partisan divisions, while others suggest easing of party differences
• Partisans are now educated on their expected reactions on nearly all subjects
THE IMPACT OF THE BUSH PRESIDENCY
• Increased polarization and partisan attacks increase the scrutiny of polls – probably a good thing, even when the criticism is unfair or wrong.
• So…the long-term effect of the Bush Presidency on public opinion may not be known for a while
“The Impact of the Bush Presidency ON Public Opinion: Partisanship and Polarization”
Kathleen A. FrankovicEvaluating the George W. Bush Presidency
UH-Hilo July 29-31, 2009