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THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010
Kathleen A. Frankovic
Hawaii Economic Association
August 26, 2010
OVERVIEW
• What are the national prospects for House and Senate?
• What can we expect the role of issues to be in the election campaign? Which issues have shown up in this year’s elections?
• How do political scientists forecast the outcome?
• Will it all be about the economy?
WHERE WE STAND
HOUSE COMPOSITION– 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans– All seats are up
SENATE COMPOSITION – 37 seats up (includes special elections)– Current Senate: 59 Democrats, 41
Republicans– Not up: 40 Democrats, 23 Republicans– Democrats ONLY need 10 wins to keep
control
WILL THIS BE 1994 ALL OVER AGAIN?
• In 1994, Republicans had an 8-point lead in House vote and captured 54 Democratic seats
• This year they need only 39• There are 49 Congressional districts with
Democratic Congressmen that were carried by McCain in 2008
• However, only 11 gave McCain 60% or more of the vote
• Most of those Congressmen seem secure
FORECASTING MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Elections have been nationalized since 1994 and Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America
Before then, many – if not most – of House and Senate races were decided by local and candidate factors
On many of the important issues, Republicans have an edge
And then there’s the Tea Party
POLITICAL SCIENCE’S ATTEMPTS AT PREDICTION
REGRESSION MODELS USING…-- Presidential approval
-- Current or the change over time-- Some measure of economic growth like the change in real disposable income per capita-- Whether party is “exposed” or controls Congress-- President’s victory margin when elected-- What voters say they will do
AND THE MARGIN IS THEN CONVERTED INTO SEATS
THE MODELS HAVEN’T BEEN PARTICULARLY
SUCCESSFUL!!!
________
WHAT ARE THE DATA ABOUT THE ISSUES
AND THE ELECTION?
MOSQUES
MOSQUES
SAME-SEX MARRIAGE
Which comes closest to your view?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry.
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry.
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Marry Civil Unions Nothing
2004
2010
IMMIGRATION
IMMIGRATION
AFGHANISTAN
THE ISSUES
THE ECONOMY
THE ECONOMY
THE ECONOMY
THE PRESIDENT
THE PRESIDENT
THE REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGES IN 2010
• Presidential approval below 50%
• Historical patterns (post-first presidential election)
• Transient issues favor them
• Greater enthusiasm
ENTHUSIASM GAP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
FollowingVery
Closely
Care a Lot
REPUBLICANS
DEMOCRATS
Talked About
THE IMPACT OF ISSUES
Economic concerns usually help Democrats, but this year, Democrats are in control.
Republican lead on most less important issues
BUT…Americans like the Republican Party even less than they like Democrats!
2010 National Congressional Ballot - Latest Poll August 22, 2010
LESS THAN 10 WEEKS TO GO!
THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010
Kathleen A. Frankovic
Hawaii Economic Association
August 26, 2010