EGYPT AFTER THE 2011 REVOLUTION

THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL MEDIA & NETWORK GOVERNANCE ON STATE STABILITY IN TIMES

OF TURBULENCE

EGYPT AFTER THE 2011 REVOLUTION

Faculteit Economische, Politieke en Sociale Wetenschappen en Solvay Business School

Vakgroep Politieke Wetenschappen

By

Karim Hamza

Egyptian Revolution 2011

21 Feb.2013 Karim Hamza 2

During the revolution it appeared that social media as well as network governance played an important steering role as instruments that can impact state

stability, but they were not used adequately.

Problem Definition

• There is a growing attention toward political analysis models that can:

– Assess state governance situation.

– Consider non-state actors influence

– Consider other non-western forms of organisation, rule-making and conflict resolution (OECD, 2008).


Main Objectives

• Develop a model to describe the state governance situation with respect to state stability in times of turbulence


Contribution of the Study

Circle of State Stability Model (CSS)

Circle of State Stability Model – Why?

• The proposed model represents an improvement of existing models because it is:

– Simpler and easier for policy-makers to understand.

– Covers the macro level.

– Tailored for different state conditions.

– Functions as a general conceptual framework.

– Other models can be embedded inside it.


Circle of State Stability Model – What ?

• The model was designed to represent the impact of network governance on state stability in a specific state or country based on the following assumptions.

1. The main types of governance structure in the country: hierarchy and network.

2. State instability appears due to four main categories of instability conditions: confrontation, dictatorship, anarchy and failed state (P.77-79 and P.87).

3. State stability can be achieved if the state governance structure can achieve a reasonable balance between legal, democratic and economic values (P.44-47).

• CSS is designed as a conceptual model to help describe and document Egypt’s political situation after the 2011 revolution.


Governance Analysis Framework (GAF)


Phase / Component

Phase I Scope Map

Phase II Stakeholder Map

Phase III Process Map

Phase IV Governance Map

Objective Describe the main streams: • Problem Stream • Solution Stream • Political Stream

Describe who are the main actors and their relation with each other inside the governance model. • Citizen Power • Executive Authority • Judicial Authority • Legislative Authority • Non-state Political

Power

Identify policy networks collations and their usage of social media. • Identify Control level of

main actors on social media.

• Identify Confrontation level on social media.

Describe the progress (or not) of the state transformation from transition state toward a state stability.

Based on Multiple Stream Model, (Kingdom, Porter, 1984/1995)

Policy Network Analysis [PNA], (Rhodes, 1995)

Advocacy Coalition Framework [ACF], (Sabatier & Jenkins-Smith, 1999) and Social media

Circle of State Stability

Case Study Analysis

• Different drivers influence state stability.

• Focus on the impact of social media on state stability by considering :

– Control over social media

and

– Confrontation over social media.


Case Study Analysis

Egyptian Constitutional Referendum 2011

February 2011 - March 2011

• Result

– Proponents (YES): 77.27%

(Brotherhood, Salafis movement, Old Regime supporters)

– Opponents (NO): 22.73%

(Liberal , Kefaya, 6th April, Baradei, Amr Mousa, Christians)

Fig. 9 P.125

Egyptian Parliamentary 2012 elections

October 2011 – March 2012

• Result – Islamic Ideology Parties

(Al Horreya Wel Adala, Al-Nour)

Aprox. 70%

– Liberal Ideology Parties (Egyptian Bloc)

Aprox. 15%

– New Revolutionary Parties (Revolution Continues Alliance)

Aprox. 1.38%

P. 145, 147, Fig 5 P. 151



High

Hiera

rchy

High

Network

Anarchy S

tate

Dictato

rship

State

Network Governance control level

Hie

rarc

hy

Go

vern

ance

Co

ntr

ol l

eve

l

Tendency to State Control


Tendency to Non-State Control

Tendency to Revolution

Tendency to State Failure


Low Netw

ork &

Hierarchy No Control

Extreme State Control

State Control against Policy

Network ControlHigh

Network &

Hierarchy

Extreme Network control

Confrontation State

Failed State

EGYPT2

EGYPT3

EGYPT1

Egypt during the 2011 RevolutionJan’11- March’11

Egypt after the 2011 RevolutionMarch’11-Dec’12

Egypt before 2011 Revolution

Confrontation level with Network

Confrontation level with Hierarchy

Governance transformation in Egypt after 2011 revolution


High

Hiera

rchy

High

Network

Anarchy S

tate

Dictato

rship

State


Hie

rarc

hy

Go

vern

ance

Co

ntr

ol l

eve

l






Low Netw

ork &


Absolute State Control


Network ControlHigh

Network &

Hierarchy

Absolute Policy Network control

Confrontation State

Failed State

EGYPT

EGYPT

EGYPT

EGYPT

2011 RevolutionJan’11- March’11

Constitution ReferendumFebruary’11-April’11

Parliamentary Elections October’11-March’12

Presidential Elections April’12 - June’12

Circle of State Stability Confrontation level

with Network


Egypt ideal Positions on the Circle of State Stability Model


High

Hiera

rchy

High

Network

Anarchy S

tate

Dictato

rship

State


Hie

rarc

hy

Go

vern

ance

Co

ntr

ol l

eve

l






Low Netw

ork &


Absolute State Control


Network ControlHigh

Network &

Hierarchy

Absolute Policy Network control

Confrontation State

Failed State

EGYPT

EGYPT

EGYPT

EGYPT

2011 RevolutionJan’11- March’11

Constitution ReferendumFebruary’11-April’11

Dissolving the ParliamentJune’12

Presidential Elections April’12 - June’12

Circle of State Stability ModelConfrontation level

with Network


EGYPTParliamentary Elections October’11-March’12

EGYPT

Constitution Reformation March’12-November’12

EGYPT

scenario A: networks confrontation

scenario B: State control

Egypt’s Actual Progress on CSS since 2011

Conclusion

• The role of social media in Egypt after the 2011 revolution can be understood through its relationship with the creation of policy networks, organisations, communications and mobilisation mechanisms for mass protest.

• Social media provided the space and tools to form and expand networks that the Egyptian authorities could not easily control during the time frame of the two case studies.

• Despite debate on impact of social media, it actually helped different policy networks by facilitating new connections among the middle-class youth and supporting the circulation of stories, videos, blogs, tweets, posts that promoted the interests of these policy networks.


Future Discussions

• Address the role that market governance plays with regard to state stability.

• Outline the role of different drivers, like culture and societal structure.

• State stability prioritisation issues must be reviewed more carefully and in detail for each country because needs such as security safeguards, welfare, food and others differ across countries.

• The effect of external influences on state stability requires additional study from an international relations prospective.


Thank You Questions

News & Politics

EGYPT AFTER THE 2011 REVOLUTION