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Growing complexity of civilization is likely to become unsustainable at some point. How can we take control and guide our civilization toward a path that is sustainable?
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Civilization 1.0The experiment continues
Civilization 1.0• Civilization is an
ongoing experiment• It continues to adapt
and evolve• It is not, however,
evolving into any preconceived utopia
• We make it up as we go along
Why?• Sixty minutes per
hour• Twenty-four hours per
day• Seven days per week• 365 days a year…• Civilization never
stops• It is the culmination
of all our activities
Civilization 1.0• How did this come to
pass?• What does this
civilization look like?
Civilization 1.0• The keyboard was
designed to slow down typists so the mechanical keys would not jam
• We live with that legacy now even though keyboards are no longer mechanical
• This is typical of our civil inheritance
Civilization 1.0• Houses are still being
built with 2x4s, boards and tar shingled roofs even though we have many better ways to build them
• Modern social sciences are based on 18th century physics and 19th century biology
Civilization 1.0• Management
practices are based on military traditions going back over a thousand years, even though the management revolution supposedly took place forty years ago
Civilization 1.0• Most of the things
that make up our civilization are historical accidents
• If we had it to do over again, we’d do things differently – and better
• But the past is sticky• Everything we think
about is somehow linked to old ideas
Civilization 1.0• Is religion still
relevant?• Are some religions
better than others?• Do you put your choice
of religion on hold while you figure out which ones are best?
• Are religions evolving to better reflect human needs and interests?
Civilization 1.0• Built-in corrective
mechanisms keep civilization relatively on track
• What track?• Where to?• What are the
boundaries?
Markets• We have a free market
system to encourage enterprise and innovation and relatively equitable distribution of goods and services
• Improvements are financially rewarded
• Waste is discouraged• Competition is based
on consumer choices
Markets• Marketing has become
a high science• Based on psychology,
demographics, scientific-type surveys, and media technology
• Consumers choose between products and vendors
• Not so much between a product and, say, quiet time
Government• Governments are to
keep the free market fair and opportunities equitable
• They try to create a fair and honest playing field to ensure citizens’ needs are met
• You vote your favourite leaders
Government• Governments need
their checks and balances▫ Lobbyists▫ Advocates▫ Civil disobedience▫ Petitions and letter
campaigns▫ Plebiscites and
referenda
Citizens• As citizens we have
responsibilities • Educate ourselvs on
electoral candidates, issues, policies
• Stay informed as stories evolve
• Vote! And vote wisely• When a vote isn’t
enough, speak up
Specialized Knowledge• Scientists explore and
discover new things about nature, the universe and ourselves
• Applied scientists conduct research and develop new technologies, materials and products
Specialized Knowledge• Management
scientists increase efficiency and effectiveness of processes, methods, programs and projects
Production• We have hard working
people who get things done
• They make, assemble and ship the goods
• They deliver services
Management• Managers make tough
decisions that keep our work organized and moving ahead
• Ensuring tasks and skills are appropriately matched and people are well trained and rewarded
Leadership• Leaders paint a
picture of our common future against the gray fog of the future and point the direction forward
• They motivate us to work toward a better place
Consumers• As consumers we all
benefit from the fruits of our collective labour and wisdom
• We share in yesterday’s utopia
• And dream about tomorrow’s…
Civilization 1.5: Assessment
•What has not changed from the past?•What is different now?
•How sustainable is this system?•How has the system already reinvented
itself?
Civilization 1.5: Assessment
•Is there any other way to run a civilization?
•What could cause it to fail?•What would you choose to do differently?
Civilization 2.0
•What we learn from the past and today’s world will determine the shape of the next civilization
Civilization 2.0• Will Civilization 2.0 be
a webby world managed by a synthesis of artificial and collective intelligence?
Civilization 2.0• Will Civilization 2.0 be
a bio-mimicry world, based on a modern understanding of man’s inherent place in nature?
Civilization 2.0• Will Civilization 2.0 be
auto-regulating, providing an appropriate range of efficient responses to nature’s demands?
Civilization 2.0• The pace of change is
accelerating with no relief in sight
• Terrorist actions, rogue states, failed states and the global economic recession have not deterred the march of progress
Civilization 2.0• One thing that is
emerging with greater clarity is that organizations are needed more than ever
• Collaboration, not the old-fashioned charismatic leader, will be needed to find our way
Civilization 2.0: The Way Forward
• Only organizations can provide the number of experts and mix of skills needed to come to a reasonable understanding of the complex modern world
• And not just any organization, at that
Civilization 2.0: The Way Forward
• Only an organization that is highly organized around the central purpose of matching the complexity of the global civilization will be able to read the trends, foresee changes and plot a course for survival
Civilization 2.0: The Way Forward
• Only an organization that sees itself as a collective intelligence emerging from the interaction of the diverse intelligences of its members…
• Only this organization will be able to survive, bringing its members along in a protective envelop
Civilization 2.0: The Way Forward
• Individuals and their organizations must now form collective intelligence to match the diversity in their own continuously unfolding civilization