Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Liberal Democrat Conference

Liberal Democrat Conference 2011Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI

How deep is the hole?

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-03M

ar-03M

a y-03Jul-03S

e p-03N

ov-03Jan-04M

ar-04M

ay-04Jul-04S

ep-04N

ov-04Jan-05M

ar-05M

a y-05Jul-05S

e p-05N

ov-05Jan-06M

ar-06M

ay-06Jul-06S

ep-06N

ov-06Jan-07M

ar-07M

a y-07Jul-07S

e p-07N

ov-07Jan-08M

ar-08M

a y-08Jul-08S

e p-08N

ov-08Jan-09M

ar-09M

a y-09Jul-09S

e p-09N

ov-09Jan-10M

ar-10M

a y-10Jul-10S

e p-10N

ov-10Jan-11M

ar-11M

a y-11Jul-11S

e p-11

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

37%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?2005

General Election

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13%

35%

2010 General ElectionCampbell

becomes leader (March 06)

Clegg becomes leader (Dec 07)

Support for the Lib Dems has fallen away since the election

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan-03M

ar-03M

a y-03Jul-03S

e p-03N

ov-03Jan-04M

ar-04M

ay-04Jul-04S

ep-04N

ov-04Jan-05M

ar-05M

a y-05Jul-05S

e p-05N

ov-05Jan-06M

ar-06M

ay-06Jul-06S

ep-06N

ov-06Jan-07M

ar-07M

a y-07Jul-07S

e p-07N

ov-07Jan-08M

ar-08M

a y-08Jul-08S

e p-08N

ov-08Jan-09M

ar-09M

a y-09Jul-09S

e p-09N

ov-09Jan-10M

ar-10M

a y-10Jul-10S

e p-10N

ov-10Jan-11M

ar-11M

a y-11Jul-11S

e p-11

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

37%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?


13%

35%

And is lower than usual in “peace time”

2010 General ElectionCampbell

becomes leader (March 06)

Clegg becomes leader (Dec 07)

2005 General Election

30%

12%

58%62%

24%

14%

61%21%

18%

Most 2010 Lib Dem voters would not now vote LD

Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011

Voted Toryin 2010

Voted LDin 2010

Voted Labin 2010


Still Conservative/Labour/LibDem and certain to vote

Not Conservative/Labour/LibDem any moreStill Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem but not certain to vote


+53%

+58%

*Since first comparable MORI measure (1977)Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000-2,000 British adults 18+ in each survey

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? (Net ratings = satisfied minus dissatisfied)

Clegg best(April 2010)

Best ever* Lib/LD(Ashdown, May 1997)

While Nick Clegg has seen the best of times and the worst of times….

-28%

-32%

-28%

+53%

+58%

*Since first comparable MORI measure (1977)Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000-2,000 British adults 18+ in each survey

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? (Net ratings = satisfied minus dissatisfied)

Clegg worst(May 2011)

Clegg best(April 2010)

Best ever* Lib/LD(Ashdown, May 1997)

Worst ever* Lib/LD(Steel, Jan 1988)

Clegg now(Sept 2011)

While Nick Clegg has seen the best of times and the worst of times….

Who are you appealing to – and who have you lost?

15

2

28

29

9

3

19

10

16

33

8

10

8

14

7

5

Some people describe their political views as being left wing or right wing. How would you describe your own views, would you say they are…?

% Left of centre

% Right wing% Right of centre% Left wing

Your own views

Con voters

% Centre

Lab voters

LD voters

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,009 British adults 18+, 15th - 17th October 2010“Don’t knows” not shown

33

34

25

37

Who are you appealing to – and who have you lost?

30%

12%

58%62%

24%

14%

61%21%

18%


Base: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011

Voted Toryin 2010

Voted LDin 2010

Voted Labin 2010





30%7%

18%

12%33%

62%24%

14%

61%21%

18%

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 4,000 GB adults 18+, May-August 2011




A quarter of Lib Demshave swung to Labour


Voted Toryin 2010

Voted LDin 2010

Voted Labin 2010

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76 saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011

Which one of the following Prime Ministers do you consider the most capable leader?

9%

7%

36%

10%

11%

27%

None/DK

Major

Thatcher

Cameron

Brown

Blair

% LD “stickers”% All adults % LD “defectors”

Can you guess which past PM is most admired?



4%

3%

24%

4%

13%

52%

9%

7%

36%

10%

11%

27%

None/DK

Major

Thatcher

Cameron

Brown

Blair



Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76 saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011



5%

11%

51%

17%

3%

13%

4%

3%

24%

4%

13%

52%

9%

7%

36%

10%

11%

27%

None/DK

Major

Thatcher

Cameron

Brown

Blair



Base: 508 British adults 18+ (including 76 saying they voted LibDem in 2010 – note small base), 17-19 June 2011

Difficult time to be in government

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

Economy

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Unemployment

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

The economy is the number one issue

35%

38%

20%

6%1% Very concerned

Don’t know

Not very concerned

Fairly concerned

Not at all concerned


And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?

Widespread concern about the effects of cuts

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011

But that’s not the whole story - the Coalition effect

34%

8%

58%

40%

8%

52%

No one party having an overall majority is seen as a bad thing for the country

Good thingDon’t know

Bad thing

Do you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority?


May 2010

Good thingDon’t know

Bad thing

April 2011

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+

41%

51%

2%6%

Conservatives seen to be making most of the decisions in the Coalition

From what you know so far, which of these comes closes to your view?

Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Political Monitor

The new government is a genuine coalition in which decisions are made jointly between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats

The Conservatives are making most of the decisions in the new government

Don’t knowNeither

Base: 1,253 British adults 18+, 18th-20th June 2010, 1,005 British adults 12th-14th Nov 2010; 1000 British adults 18+, 15th-17th April 2011

25%

63%

4%8%

June 2010 April 2011

Source: Ipsos MORI

44%36%

8%

13%

Conservatives

Both equally

Neither/Don’t Know

Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th - 13th March 2011

Conservatives seen as truer to their pre-election plans than Lib DemsBefore the general election, both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats said they would address the national deficit. Which party do you think has been truer to their plans?

Liberal Democrats


The parties should stand up for the policies they believe in, even if this makes it more difficult to make decisions

Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 20-24 May 2011

Which, in any, of the following statements comes closest to your opinion on how parties should work together in coalition?

The parties should work together to reach agreement, even if this means giving up on policies they promised and taking on new policies

Lib Dem voters prioritise principles – even in a Coalition

60%

61%

36%

49%

34%

37%

61%

47%

Voted LD

Voted Lab

Voted Con

All

25%

19%

6%

49%

So although “winning” was supposed to help your chances…..

Conservatives

Liberal Democrats

Labour

Other

Lib Dem lead = +24

How would you vote on May 6 if you thought the Liberal Democrats had a significant chance of winning the election nationally?

Source: YouGovBase: 1,509 British adults 18+, 18th - 19th April 2010

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Labour partyConservative party

Keeps its promises

Will promise anything to win votes

Liberal Democrat party

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011

Instead you’re seen as divided, and losing out on your principles…..

Divided

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Labour partyConservative party

Keeps its promises

Will promise anything to win votes

Understands the problems facing Britain

Has a good team of leaders

Liberal Democrat party

Divided

Extreme

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011

Looks after the interests of people like me

Fit to govern Out of date

…but not made up for it on credibility to govern

So what does this all mean?

Being in government hasn’t helped your public image

– All hard choices but no hard benefit

You’ve lost the ‘soft left’ and the protest vote – but there’s still a big centre ground out there

– Is about winning them back, or building a new centre identity?

So, how do you differentiate yourselves without destroying the Coalition?

– Tories might survive a snap election, but the Lib Dems would not

Final thoughts

Gideon Skinner, Ipsos [email protected] 7347 3000

News & Politics

Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Liberal Democrat Conference