Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Labour Party Conference

Labour Party Conference 2011

Gideon Skinner, Ipsos [email protected]

Is ‘good’good enough?

A quick recap….2010…

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80%

Base : c. 1,000 - 2,000 British adults 18+ each survey Source: Ipsos MORI

But was it inevitable? …Time for a change?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80%

Base : c. 1,000 - 2,000 British adults 18+ each survey Source: Ipsos MORI

BLAIR BROWN

But was it inevitable? …Time for a change?

So where are we now?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

Economy

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Unemployment

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

The economy is the number one issue

8

The British are amongst the world’s leading pessimists…

Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?

*Note that the total global average does not include this month’s two ad-hoc countries: Greece and Ireland.

9

Net

sat

isfie

d

1992

1983

The government isn’t pulling up any trees…

1987

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?

1997

2001

2005

20101979

General Election

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

MAJOR

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

THATCHER

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

BLAIR

BROWNBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month

CAMERON

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

…and most are dissatisfied with Cameron (and Clegg)

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter

37%

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?


13%

35%

2010 General Election

…and yet Labour have only a small lead in the polls

Net

sat

isfie

d

HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

HOWARD (2003-2005)

Satisfaction with Miliband

Number of months from becoming leader

CAMERON (2005-2010)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

BLAIR (1994-1997)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Note: methods change for Cameron; see below

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month;

MILIBAND (2010-2011)

Net

sat

isfie

d

HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

HOWARD (2003-2005)

Satisfaction with Miliband – where will it go?

Number of months from becoming leader

CAMERON (2005-2010)

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

BLAIR (1994-1997)

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

Note: methods change for Cameron; see below

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month;

MILIBAND (2010-2011)

35%

38%

20%

6%1% Very concerned

Don’t know

Not very concerned

Fairly concerned

Not at all concerned


And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?

Widespread concern about the effects of cuts

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011

25%

70%

3%2%

And which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about reducing the deficit?

It is important to cut spending quicklyeven if this means immediate job losses, because it will be better for the economy in the long term

It is better to cut spending more slowly, to reduce the impact on public services and the economy

Don’t know

Neither

And most prefer cuts to be slow rather than fast

Source: Economist/Ipsos MORI

March 2011

Base:1,000 British adults 18+, 11-13 March 2011

But Labour are still getting a lot of the blame


If the British economy gets worse in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly to blame?

Base: 503 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011

The Conservative Party

The Liberal Democrat Party

The state of the global economy

Conservatives and Lib Dems together

The previous Labour government

The banks

Don’t know

Other

And the Conservatives hold the lead on the number one issue

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?

33%

23%

8%

Not quite hitting the spot?

15

5

25

9

6

19

16

28

4

8

21

5

Ed is no more red than Dave is blue….Some people describe their political views as being left wing or right wing. How would you describe your own views, would you say they are…? And how would you describe..?

% Left of centre

% Right wing% Right of centre% Left wing

Your own views

The views ofDavid Cameron

% Centre

The views ofEd Miliband

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,009 British adults 18+, 15th - 17th October 2010“Don’t knows” not shown

33

14

23

12

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… MilibandCameron

His image has improved on some key aspects…

A capable leader

Understands the problems facing Britain

Good in a crisis

Clegg

Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011

+9

+11

+12


But still trails Cameron on key leadership qualities

A capable leader

Good in a crisis

Clegg

Has sound judgement


Has a clear vision for Britain

Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011


But still trails Cameron on key leadership qualities

A capable leader


Good in a crisis

Likeable

Clegg

Has sound judgement

Out of touch with ordinary people


Puts the interest of the country above those of his own party

Has a clear vision for Britain

More style than substanceBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Labour partyConservative party

Keeps its promises


Liberal Democrat party


Looks after the interests of people like me

Labour are the most ‘liked’ party

Public sector: 42% Lab, 25% ConPrivate sector: 38% Lab, 37% Con


Has a good team of leaders



Fit to govern

But not yet ready for government?


Keeps its promises

Will promise anything to win votes


Has a good team of leaders


Divided

Extreme


Looks after the interests of people like me

Fit to govern

Out of date

But not yet ready for government?

So what’s missing?

+12 +11

+18

+12 +13

+3

+10 +10+13 +12

-11-14

-16 -16

-11

-6

-16

-11-13

-9

-3-1

-7

14

1 0

-2-4 -3

Men Women 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ AB C1 C2 DE

Where is your vote coming from?

Source: Ipsos MORI Election/Monitor aggregatesBase: British adults 18+ voting/with voting intention

You have time before the election, but…

You can’t just rely on concern about the economy –satisfaction with the government may well fall, but need to be convinced that you are a better alternative

Have you reached the limits of support from those (core vote and unhappy LibDems) who don’t believe in what the government is doing?

You now need to persuade Con-Lab floating voters – from all social groups - that you have something to offer their head as well as their heart

Gideon Skinner, Ipsos [email protected] 7347 3000

News & Politics

Beyond the Bubble: Ipsos MORI at the Labour Party Conference