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2017 Edelman Trust BarometerSupplementary Research
Trust and the U.S. Presidential Election
Informed Public
9 years in 20+ markets
Represents 13% of total global population500 respondents in U.S. and China; 200 in all other countries
Must meet 4 criteria:
Ages 25-64College educatedIn top 25% of household income per age group in each countryReport significant media consumption and engagement in business news
General Online Population
6 years in 25+ markets
Ages 18+1,150 respondents per country
All slides show General Online Population unless otherwise noted
2017 Edelman Trust Barometer Methodology
28-country global data margin of error: General Population +/-0.6% (N=32,200), Informed Public +/- 1.2% (N=6,200), Mass Population +/- 0.6% (26,000+). Country-specific data margin of error: General Population +/- 2.9 ( N=1,150), Informed Public +/- 6.9% (N = min 200, varies by country), China and U.S. +/- 4.4% (N=500), Mass Population +/- 3.0 to 3.6 (N =min 740, varies by country), half sample Global General Online Population +/- 0.8 (N=16,100).
2
17 years of data
33,000+ respondents total
All fieldwork was conducted between October 13th and November 16th, 2016
Online Survey in 28 Countries
Mass Population
All population not including Informed PublicRepresents 87% of total global population
U.S. Post-Election Supplementary Survey788 American voters, weighted to be nationally representative based on age, gender and region, with oversamples of Trump voters (360) and Clinton (367) voters
372 respondents had also participated in the global Trust Barometer Survey
Supplementary fieldwork was conducted from November 28th to December 11th.Margin of error for Clinton and Trump voter numbers = +/- 5.2%Margin of error for the total voter numbers = +/- 3.8%
Contents
3
1. Trust Among U.S. VotersTrust in institutions, before and after the presidential election
2. A Vote Based on Fear and Distrust• Percent of Americans who feel the system is
broken, and hold various societal and economic fears
• Percent of Trump and Clinton voters who hold various fears
Trust and the U.S. 2016 Presidential Election
3. A Nation Divided• Demographics
• Fairness of the election outcome
• Trust in political institutions
• Support for increased regulations
• Support for general policy priorities
• Support for business reforms
• Support for trade policies
U.S. Trust Index Largely Unchanged Among U.S. Voters
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer and U.S. Flash Poll. Q11-620. Below is a list of institutions. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that institution to do what is right using a nine-point scale, where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal.” (Top 4 Box, Trust) Audience: U.S. General Population of voters who participated both in main and re-contact study.
4
Percent trust in the four institutions of government, business, media and NGOs, pre- and post-U.S. 2016 presidential election
45U.S. Trust Index
before Nov. 8, 2016
44U.S. Trust Index after November 9, 2016
50%52 49
40 40
54 51
35 37
Trust in Two Institutions Declines
5
Percent trust in the four institutions of NGOs, business, media and government, pre- and post-U.S. 2016 presidential election
Business MediaNGOs Government
Two of four institutions decline post-election
Neutral
Trusted
Distrusted
+2 -5 -3
Change+−
Pre-election Post-election
+2
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Below is a list of institutions. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that institution to do what is right using a nine-point scale, where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal.” (Top 4 Box, Trust) Full Flash Poll sample who voted in the Presidential election.
4250
21 25
4760
1526
6250
57 576045 51 46
Trust Diverges Along Voting Lines
6
Percent trust in the four institutions of government, business, media and NGOs, pre- and post-election, Trump vs. Clinton voters
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer Q11-620 and U.S. Flash Poll. Below is a list of institutions. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that institution to do what is right using a nine-point scale, where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal.” (Top 4 Box, Trust) Audience: U.S. General Population of Trump and Clinton voters who participated both in main and re-contact study.
+10 -6 +1
-6-5-2
+5
Media highly distrusted by Trump voters; declines among both
Government highly distrusted by Trump voters
Change+−
Pre-election Post-election
Trump Voters
Clinton Voters
-11
Business MediaNGOs Government
A Vote Based on Fear and Distrust
Without Trust, Belief in the System Fails
8
How true are each of the following?
Sense of Injustice
Desire for Change
Need forceful reformers to bring change
Lack of Confidence
No confidence in current leaders
Lack of Hope
Hard work not rewarded, children will not have a better life, country not moving in right direction
System biased in favor of elites, elites indifferent to the people, getting richer than they deserve
How true is this for you?
Sense of injustice Lack of hope Lack of confidence Desire for change
57%
33%
10%
Majority in U.S. Believe the System is Failing Them
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer. Q672-675, 678-680, 688-690. United States. For details on how the “system failing” measure was calculated, please refer to the Technical Appendix.
9
Not at all true
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
1 in 3 are uncertain
Completely true
System failing System working
Corruption Globalization Eroding Social Values Immigration Pace of Innovation
Widespread corruption
Compromising the safety of our citizens
Makes it difficult to institute the changes necessary to solve our problems
Protect our jobs from foreign competition
Foreign companies/influence damaging our economy/national culture
Foreign corporations favor their home country
Most countries cannot be trusted to engage in fair trade practices
Values that made this country great are disappearing
Society changing too quickly and not in ways that benefit people like me
Influx of people from other countries damaging our economy and national culture
Technological innovations happening too quickly and leading to changes not good for people like me
Concerns Have Become Fears
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer. Corruption Q685-687, Globalization Q681-684, Eroding social values Q676 and Q758, Immigration Q685, Pace of innovation Q677. United States. For details on how the societal fears were measured, please refer to the Technical Appendix.
10
Percent of respondents who are concerned or fearful regarding each issue
76% Concerned41% Fearful
66% Concerned39% Fearful
67% Concerned36% Fearful
74% Concerned40% Fearful
61% Concerned31% Fearful
The Cycle of Fear and Distrust
11
11
34
Trump Won the Fear Vote
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election, grouped by “system failing” segments and level of fear from the Trust Barometer. For details on how systemic distrust and societal fears were measured, please refer to the Technical Appendix. Respondents were labeled as “fearful” if they were fearful of at least one of the following societal issues: corruption, immigration, globalization, eroding social values, and pace of innovation. 12
Percent of voters for each candidate who are fearful
Trump Voters Clinton Voters
25
42
67% are fearful
45% are fearful
System Failingand Fearful Fearful
Trump Voters Most Fearful of Immigration & Globalization
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population, grouped by “system failing” segments and level of fear from the Trust Barometer. Corruption Q685-687, Globalization Q681-684, Eroding social values Q676 and Q758, Immigration Q685, Pace of innovation Q677. For details on how systemic distrust and societal fears were measured, please refer to the Technical Appendix. Respondents were labeled as “fearful” if they were fearful of at least one of the following societal issues: corruption, immigration, globalization, eroding social values, and pace of innovation. 13
Percent of voters for each candidate who have specific fears
Trump Voters
67% are fearful
45% are fearful
Immigration 46 +29
Globalization 44 +25
Eroding Social Values 35 +14
Corruption 34
Pace of Innovation 20
Immigration 17
Globalization 19
Eroding Social Values 21
Corruption 29
Pace of Innovation 15
Trump voters twice as likely to fear globalization and immigration than Clinton voters
Clinton Voters
A Nation Divided
47
52
47
56
30
55
80
58
55
31
50+ years old
White
Male
College-educated
Household income $100K+
Demographic Divide
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
Percent of Trump and Clinton voters with each characteristic
Trump and Clinton voters equally affluent and educated
Trump voters more likely to be white, male and over 50 years old
Trump voters Clinton voters
15
6
21
28
34
11
22
26
23
25
4
21
35
28
16
1
Matures
Boomers
Gen X
Millennials
Gen Z
Generational Divide
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Audience: U.S. General Population who voted and did not vote in the Presidential election.
Percent of Trump, Clinton and respondents who did not vote who are from each generation
Boomers overwhelmingly voted for Trump
The youth vote went to Clinton—but was largely missing in the voting booth
Trump voters Clinton voters Did not vote
16
Divided on Fairness
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll Q14. Who did you vote for? Q10.The Presidential election was a fair and accurate reflection of the will of the people. (% Yes). Q13. Do you regret not having voted? (% Yes). Q16. Do you now regret how you cast your vote? (%Yes). Audience: U.S. General Population who voted and did not vote in the Presidential election.
17
Percent who agree that the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was a fair and accurate reflection of the will of the people
34
96
28%of non-voters
3%of voters
regretnot voting or voting for the candidate they supported
Trump Voters
Clinton Voters
7
11
27
43
12
28
Matures
Boomers
Gen X
Millennials
Gen Z
Total average
Regrets for Those Who Did Not Vote—Especially Among Millennials
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Q13. Do you regret not having voted? (% Yes). Audience: U.S. General Population who did not vote in the Presidential election.
Percent of respondents who did not vote with regrets that they did not vote, by generation
18
4 in 10 millennials who did not vote have regrets
27
58
46
60
46
39
40
49
59
66
Congress
Government regulators, agencies
State and local government
Supreme court
American voters
Trump Voters Trust “the People” More Than Political Institutions
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q14_17. Below is a list of political and government entities. For each one, please indicate how much you trust that it to do what is right using a 9-point scale where one means that you “do not trust them at all” and nine means that you “trust them a great deal”. (Top 4 Box, Trust) Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election.
Percent who trust each of the following to do what is right
Among Trump voters, American voters more trusted than institutions
77%of Trump voters
8%of Clinton voters
trust the Trump administration to do what is right
Trump voters Clinton voters
19
Majority Favor Increased Regulation for Pharma and Financial Services
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q699. For each of the industries listed below, please indicate whether you think it should be subject to: More regulation, Less regulation, The same amount of regulation as it has currently. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
20
Percent of U.S. voters who think each industry sector should be subject to more regulation
5953
44 43 4234 33 31 28 25 23
Phar
ma-
ceut
ical
s
Fina
ncia
l se
rvic
es
Med
ia
Hea
lth c
are
Ener
gy
Tele
com
-m
unic
atio
ns
Food
&
beve
rage
Auto
mot
ive
Man
ufac
turin
g
Tech
nolo
gy
Beer
, win
e &
spiri
ts
More Support for Increased Regulation from Clinton Voters—Except for Media
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q699. For each of the industries listed below, please indicate whether you think it should be subject to: More regulation, Less regulation, The same amount of regulation as it has currently. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election.
21
Percent who think each industry sectors should be subject to more regulation
Media is only sector with stronger support for increased regulation from Trump voters
5445
54
3930 29 27 24 23 24
19
64 63
34
4954
39 39 38 3426 26
Phar
ma-
ceut
ical
s
Fina
ncia
l se
rvic
es
Med
ia
Hea
lth c
are
Ener
gy
Tele
com
-m
unic
atio
ns
Food
&
beve
rage
Auto
mot
ive
Man
ufac
turin
g
Tech
nolo
gy
Beer
, win
e &
spiri
ts
Trump voters Clinton voters
Policy Priorities: Training, Education,Keeping Profits and Manufacturing at Home
22
Percent of U.S. voters who would support each of the follow government policies, top ten policies shown
70
70
76
77
77
78
79
79
80
83
Mandate that companies offer health and retirement benefits
Mandate family-friendly benefits
Tax laws that encourage corporations to repatriate profits
More infrastructure projects
Government programs to encourage entrepreneurship
Incentivize companies to source locally
Tax incentives to encourage local manufacturing
Penalize companies who move profits abroad
Invest more in education
Incentives for companies to develop job training programs
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q698. The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
Divergence on Corporate Tax Laws, Education and Benefits
23
Percent who would support each of the follow government policies, Trump voters and Clinton voters
80
82
88
77
80
80
75
86
69
74
60
61
74
78
75
80
82
82
83
85
Mandate that companies offer health and retirement benefits
Mandate family-friendly benefits
Invest more in education
Government programs designed to encourage entrepreneurship
More infrastructure projects
Penalize companies who move profits abroad
Incentivize companies to source locally
Incentives for companies to develop job training programs
Tax laws that encourage corporations to repatriate profits
Tax incentives to encourage local manufacturing Trump voters more likely to support
Bipartisan support
Clinton voters more likely to support
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q698. The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election.
Trump voters Clinton voters
Strong Support for Business Reform Policies
24
Percent of U.S. voters who favor each of the following reform policies, top 10 shown
62
63
64
65
71
72
76
77
80
81
Legislation to address climate change
Allow government to regulate prescription drug prices
Develop domestic fossil fuel supplies
No more bailouts of financial institutions
Ensure sharing-economy companies comply with regulations
Hold companies responsible for not spreading fake news
Food companies to clearly label ingredients such as GMOs
Limit fees and interest of credit cards and lenders
Financial company executives held responsible for meltdowns
Do not allow executives to walk away after a scandal
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q700. The following is a list of potential industry reform policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful. 9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
Divided on Fossil Fuels, Financial Bailouts and the Environment
25
Percent of Trump vs. Clinton voters who agree with each of the follow top ten priority reform policies, General Population
79
63
71
73
77
79
81
80
56
51
47
62
73
7075
76
82
82
75
79
Legislation to address climate change
Ban antibiotics in food production
Hold companies responsible for not spreading fake news
Ensure sharing-economy companies comply with regulations
Food companies to clearly label ingredients such as GMOs
Limit fees and interest of credit cards and lenders
Do not allow executives to walk away after a scandal
Financial company executives held responsible for meltdowns
No more bailouts of financial institutions
Develop domestic fossil fuel supplies
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q14. Who did you vote for? Q700. The following is a list of potential industry reform policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful. 9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government. Audience: U.S. General Population who voted for Trump or Clinton in the Presidential election.
Trump voters more likely to support
Bipartisan support
Clinton voters more likely to support
Trump voters Clinton voters
Support for Trade Policies: Local Sourcing and Job Protection
26
Percent who agree with each trade-related policy
59
60
68
74
78
Most countries can't be trusted on fair trade practices
Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements
More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country
Do more to protect jobs from foreign competitions
Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally Incentivize local
Protect jobs
Negotiate
Start over
Don’t trust
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q698.The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” (“Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally”, “More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country”, “Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements”) Q670 Below is a list of statements. For each one, please rate how true you believe that statement is using a nine-point scale where one means it is “not at all true” and nine means it is “completely true”. (“Do more to protect jobs from foreign competition”, “Most countries can’t be trusted on fair trade practices”) (Top 4 Box, True) Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
Trump Voters Far More Protectionist Than Clinton Voters
27
Percent of Trump and Clinton voters who agree with each trade-related policy
46
42
71
62
75
71
80
66
87
82
Most countries can't be trusted on fair trade practices
Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements
More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country
Do more to protect jobs from foreign competitions
Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll. Q698.The following is a list of potential policies that the new government could work to enact. Please indicate your feelings regarding each policy using the following nine-point scale where: 1 = “I would be strongly and completely against this policy. It would be harmful” and “9 = I would be enthusiastically in favor of this policy. It should be a high priority for the government.” (“Incentivize companies to get materials/parts locally”, “More trade agreements to move goods both in and out of the country”, “Get out of/renegotiate trade agreements”) Q670 Below is a list of statements. For each one, please rate how true you believe that statement is using a nine-point scale where one means it is “not at all true” and nine means it is “completely true”. (“Do more to protect jobs from foreign competition”, “Most countries can’t be trusted on fair trade practices”) (Top 4 Box, True) Audience: U.S. General Population who voted in the Presidential election.
Incentivize local
Protect jobs
Negotiate
Start over
Don’t trust
Trump voters Clinton voters
The Divisions
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll
28
Trump Voters
Clinton Voters
Economic and societal fears • More fearful of immigration and globalization • Less fearful across all societal concerns
Political institutions • More trusting of Congress and the American voter
• More trusting of government regulators and agencies
Regulation • Want more regulation of media • Want more regulation of nearly all other sectors
Policy priorities • Use tax laws to encourage local manufacturing and repatriate profits • Invest in education, training and benefits
Reform priorities • Develop domestic fossil fuel supplies, no more bailouts of financial institutions • Address climate change
Trade policies • Protect jobs, renegotiate trade agreements, don’t trust other nations • None that rank higher than for Trump voters
American voters are divided on:
All Voters
Crossing the Aisle
Source: 2017 Edelman Trust U.S. Flash Poll
29
All Voters
Political institutions • Just as likely to trust the Supreme Court, and state and local government
Policy priorities
• Incentives for companies to develop job training programs ad source locally• Penalize companies who move profits abroad• Invest in infrastructure projects• Programs to support entrepreneurship
Reform priorities
• Hold executives responsible for financial meltdowns and scandals• Limit lender/credit card fees and interest rates• Clear labeling of ingredients; ban antibiotics in food production• Sharing economy companies to comply with regulations• Hold companies responsible for spreading fake news
Trade policies • Incentivize local sourcing of materials• Negotiate trade agreements that move goods both in and out of the country
American voters agree on:
Thank You
