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POCKET GAMER CONNECT,San Francisco, July 7-8th
State of the App Store 2015
@anders_lykke, Head of Talking to PeopleJuly, 2015
www.prioridata.comConfidential
Confidential
Agenda1. Intro2. Role of Games & State of The App Store, 20153. Chance of Success for Gaming Publishers?4. Some Good News5. Questions?
Confidential 3
Talking to People at Priori Data
Nationality: Danish (tiny country, happy people, north of Germany)
Twittering: @anders_lykke & @prioridata
Gamer?: Since the break of dawn. Certaintly spent more time than my mom thought was reasonable playing games.
Before going Tech: I studied opera, did stand-up and had a TV Production Company in Denmark.
Talked to: about 1000 app publishers over the past 2 years
Excited about: The concentration of talent in the mobile space
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Anders LykkeVP OF
TALKING TO PEOPLESales/BD
Ex.
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1.INTRO
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OUR MISSION
Our mission is to crowdsource the world’s largest panel of mobile app data.
We want to deliver reliable statistics on any app, publisher and market trend
WIR SIND WE ANALYSEEIN BERLINER APP STORES
Founded June 2013International team of 18
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Background
Every media era needs to be maken sense of. Priori Data is making sense of the app economy.
INTRO
TV, Radio, Print1950s
Web1990s
Mobile Apps2010s
??
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July 10th, 2008: App Store born with 500 apps availableINTRO
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Today: Apple’s phenomenal Q1
“Highest-ever revenue & earnings drive 48% increase in EPS. Growth led by record revenue from iPhone, Mac & App Store”
INTRO
Apple: http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2015/01/27Apple-Reports-Record-First-Quarter-Results.html)
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2015: The Apple App Store
• 70 million downloads / day!• 1.5 million apps / 480k
Publishers• $1bn paid out to publishers /
month• So… What´s the problem?
INTRO
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NO ONE CAN EVER KNOW!!
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NO ONE CAN EVER KNOW!!
HOW ANY OTHER APP IS DOING
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Collecting public and proprietary data sources to solve the problem
THE SOLUTION
Public Data Obtained
directly from the app stores
Proprietary Data Downloads, Revenue, Usage
shared bypublisher
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Store Feed “Ranks”
Partner Feed“Downloads”
0 50 100 150 200 250
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Publisher Partner
Data
Curve fitting for download and revenue estimates
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Keeping up with the Kardashians (and other games) in the App Store
DATA FOR EVERY GAME AND APP: WWW.PRIORIDATA.COM
PRIORI DATA OVERVIEW
Pioneering a Like-for-Like Data Exchange for Mobile App Publishers
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Partners get free access to data to Priori Data PRO.
Over 500 top Publishers work with Priori Data. Together we are building a better platform for the Mobile App Economy.
www.prioridata.com/for-app-publishers
Some of our partners:
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2.
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STATE OF THE APP STORESupply
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More Apps Across the Board, but with Massive Variance by Category
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - SUPPLY
# of Apps Globally Growth in # of Apps (by Category)
5,200
Dec 31, 2014
June 29, 2015
+6%
1.54m1.44m Top 5 Categories +115%
Bottom 5 Categories -24%
But what is driving growth?
(295,445 games)
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Most volatility in games (growth in #apps Jan-July, 2015)STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - SUPPLY
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2.STATE OF THE APP STOREDemand
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - DEMAND
Late 2014 Marked a Turning Point in the Top Charts....
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# App Publisher Category
1 Song Yang Action Games
2 Clash of Clans Supercell Strat. Games
3 Despicable Me: Minion Rush Gameloft Action Games
4 GungHo RPG Games
5 Deer Hunter 2014 Glu Sim. Games
6 Lei Qiao Puzzle Games
7 Flight Through – Hardest.. Zhou Qiao Arcade Games
8 Hay Day Supercell Sim. Games
9 LINE Pokopang Naver Action Games
10 Song Yang RPG Games
# App Publisher Category
1 Facebook Facebook Social Netw.
2 Facebook Messenger Facebook Social Netw.
3 Instagram Instagram Photo & Video
4 WhatsApp WhatsApp Social Netw.
5 AliPay Alipay.com Finance
6 YouTube Google Photo & Vid
7 Snapchat Snapchat Photo & Vid
8 腾讯视频 - 电视剧，综艺 .. Tencent Entertainment
9 Taobao for iPhone Taobao Lifestyle
10 Musify – Free Music Dow Alfadevs Music
Top Global Free Apps on iOS(in-month downloads, October 2013)
Top Global Free Apps on iOS(in-month downloads, October
2014)
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - DEMAND
...where Gaming Apps No Longer Dominated...
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Top Global Free Apps on iOS(in-month downloads, October 2013)
Top Global Free Apps on iOS(in-month downloads, October
2014)Category
Action Games
Strat. Games
Action Games
RPG Games
Sim. Games
Puzzle Games
Arcade Games
Sim. Games
Action Games
RPG Games
Category
Social Netw.
Social Netw.
Photo & Video
Social Netw.
Finance
Photo & Vid
Photo & Vid
Entertainment
Lifestyle
Music
10 out of 10
Games
0 out of 10
Games
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - DEMAND
...in 2015 we have (somewhat) Seen a Reversion to Normal
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Top Global Free Apps on iOS(in-month downloads, April 2015)
# App Publisher Category
1 Facebook Messenger Facebook Social Netw.
2 Facebook Facebook Social Netw.
3 YouTube Google Photo & Vid
4 梦幻西游 -2015 国民手游 人人都玩 不玩才怪
网易移动游戏
Action (Games)
5 WhatsApp Facebook Social Netw.
6 Mortal Kombat X Warner Bros Action (Games)
7 Instagram Facebook Photo & Vid
8 美团团购 - 团购 Sankuai Lifestyle
9 Uber Uber Travel
10 脑力达人 Tencent Puzzle (Games)
• 3 games• 3 China-
based• Facebook,
Google, and (newcomer) Uber
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Year to Date, Download: 38% Gaming / Revenue: 48% Gaming
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - DEMAND
Downloads Revenues
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Year to date, download growth: Driven by GamesSTATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - DEMAND
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Year to date, revenue growth: Driven by GamesSTATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS - DEMAND
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SUMMING UP & ADDITIONAL PERSPECTIVES
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State of affairs
• Market supply (new apps and publishers) continues to grow, meaning more competition amongst developers/publishers, particularly within gaming.
• Revenue is growing faster than downloads ($20 per 75 installs to $25 per 75 installs in 6 months) in most categories, suggesting better monetization strategies and/or more consumer willingness to pay.
• Growth (downloads and revenues) is driven by emerging markets and shifting trends around gaming categories. Double-digit market growth in established markets appears to be a phenomenon of the past
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS – SUPPLY & DEMAND
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State of affairs
• Gaming Publishers although fewer in numbers are leading innovation in the App Store
• They are experimenting, publishing new apps and testing new categories much more frequently., but…
What chance does a new game have of achieving success in today’s market environment?
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS – SUPPLY & DEMAND
http://mobiledevmemo.com/mobile-games-a-flawed-industry-guest-post/
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3.CHANCE OF SUCCESS?
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There is more freshness in the Top Charts than you thinkDaily # of NEW Apps in Top 200 Overall Charts (by country, by chart type, over 2 week period)
TOP CHARTS
100-120 New Apps Achieve a Top 200 Overall Position
Every Day.
Australia #1 test market (58
new games each day)
Confidential 31Priori Data Chart Freshness Analysis.
Avg. Length of Stay for New Apps% of New Apps Out Within 1 Day
days
days
Arriving in the Top Charts is One Challenge. Staying is Another.
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What we have learned from our data and best Publisher Partners?
• Yes, there are opportunities for new apps to claim the precious space in the Top Charts.
• The core question should not be whether you can land a position in the Top Charts, but for how long you can sustain it?
• Little room for failure: Testing and UA has become more expensive as CPIs continue to go up (FIKSU: $3 per install for free to play games) “…this seems like a flawed industry: You need DATA, DATA, DATA”. Michael Velkes. VP Marketing at Plamee.
• Do the research, set expectations right: A lot of publishers are taken by surprise. They run out of money, or they simply target the wrong market.
• Data alone won’t do it. You need people who can phrase the right questions: What is our optimal rank, where is local demand for our niche game on the rise? What is the necessary budget to reach out goal?
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4.SOME GOOD NEWS!
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Indie App Developers Grow in Numbers and Revenues
In 6 months, nearly 1,000 new developers have entered the >1k/month revenue bracket.# and % Increase of Developers per Income Bracket
