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1© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
GfK | Gino Thuij | E-Fashion – September 8 2016
The clash of the generations
(Online) Fashion overview
2© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
3© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Industry Lead Fashion & Lifestyle
GfK
Gino Thuij
4© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
We have more than 13,000 experts in more than 100 countries
5© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Our Fashion & Lifestyle industry scope
Bags & casesSports
Luxurygoods
Clothing
Watches
Eyewear
Furniture andhome textiles
Shoes
6© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Clash of the generationsThe difference between generations regarding shopping for fashion
An international overviewHow is fashion shopping developing in Europe?
What’s going on in The Netherlands?Long term developments of (online) fashion in NL
Content
123
7© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
An international overview
8© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Positive trend for 2016 in most European countries – additional challenges in non-EU countries
Forecasted stationary retail turnover, 2016
© GfK European Retail Study 2016source: GfK calculations on the basis of publications from Eurostat and the European Commission, values from official bureaus of statistics and our retail database. These values are based on Eurostat‘s exchange rate prognosis of November 5,2015.
1.1% growth in the EU-28The solid store retail business from last year continues in 2016. For the EU-28 countries, we forecast somewhat decelerated progress, with a nominal growth of 1.1%.
All rates are based on nominal values in €, meaning they have not been adjusted for inflation.
Map created with RegioGraph www.gfk.com/geomarketing
9© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
No growth in international spendings. Strongest decline in Spain.
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
60
70
80
90
100
110
Source: GfKMarket: upperwear Index based on value
International development Fashion market
10© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Growth of the online channel (+49%) does not compensate the decline of offline sales (-16%).
Source: GfK Consumer Panel & Kantar Consumer PanelCountries included: DE, FR, ES, NL, BE, AT
European upper wear spending declined with 10% since 2011. Stationairy Fashion retail lost 16%.
MAT June 2011 (=100)
MAT June 2012 MAT June 2013 MAT June 2014 MAT June 2015 MAT June 2016 75
95
115
135
155
175
97 94 93
91 90
112
123
134 140
149
100
96 91 89 86 84
Total market Online Offline
Development European market development upper wear (growth indices compared to same period 2011)
11© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Source: GfK Consumer Panel & Kantar Consumer Panel, MAT June 2016Countries included: DE, FR, ES, NL, BE, AT
The Dutch and Spanish upperwear market is under pressure. Germany, the biggest upperwear market among these six countries, drop with 6% in sales.
30.1
25.7
17.4
8.9
4.7 3.8
28.3
24.6
13.9
7.4
4.2 3.5
MAT June 2011MAT June 2016
Upperwear sales value (billion)
-6% -20% -17% -12% -9%
Trend (2016 vs. 2011)
-4%
12© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Source: GfK Consumer Panel & Kantar Consumer Panel, MAT JuneCountries included: DE, FR, ES, NL, BE, AT
Massive growing of online share in the fashion industry.
201312.7%
201413.8%
201514.8%
15.9%MAT June
2016
Development internet sales in upperwear market (% of total sales value, 2012- 2016)
201211.1%
13© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Germany, no 1 in online upperwear spending.
22
98
4
7
1
27
17
12 1210
3
YE Jun '12
YE Jun '16
Internet sales (% total sales value)
IndexMAT June 2016
vs. MAT June 2012
Source: GfK Consumer Panel & Kantar Consumer Panel, MAT June 2016Countries included: DE, FR, ES, NL, BE, AT
Overall internet sales are
accounting for 15.9%(6 countries)
118 162 148 287 138 209
133
14© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Chinese Fashion shoppers, global no 1 in omnichannel behavior
Source: GfK Future Buy 2015Countries included: CN, UK, DE, US, IT, FR, AU, RU, NL, SE, NO, DK, BR, ES, BEBase: all people who have shopped for fashion in 2015 (per country)
China
United
King
dom
German
y
United
Stat
es Italy
France
Austra
lia
Russia
The N
etherl
ands
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
Brasil
Spain
Belgium
81%
69%
57% 56% 54% 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 48% 47%
40% 40% 38%
% shoppers reporting omni-channel shopping for fashion (15 countries)
15© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Disruptive potential of mobile devices as purchase channel yet to be unleashed
Source: GfK Future Buy 2015Countries included: CN, UK, DE, US, IT, FR, AU, RU, NL, SE, NO, DK, BR, ES, BEBase: all people who have shopped for fashion in 2015 (per country)
30%
21%
17% 17%15% 15% 15% 15%
11% 11%10% 10%
9% 9%7%
Share of All Online Shopping Activity on Smartphone and Tablet (15 countries)
Share of All Online Shopping Activity
on Smartphone
16© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
2015 reported levels of showrooming
Source: GfK Future Buy 2015Countries included: CN, UK, DE, US, IT, FR, AU, RU, NL, SE, NO, DK, BR, ES, BEBase: all people who have shopped for fashion in 2015 (per country)
Don’t over estimate the impact of showrooming in NL
32%31%
26%
23%
20% 20%19%
17% 17%15%
13% 13% 13%12%
7%
Saw product in store then
purchased on phone elsewhere
18© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
What’s going on in The Netherlands?
19© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Source: CBSConsumer confidence and propensity to buy
Consumer confidence is recovering.
2007 januari 2007 juli 2008 januari 2008 juli 2009 januari 2009 juli 2010 januari 2010 juli 2011 januari 2011 juli 2012 januari 2012 juli 2013 januari 2013 juli 2014 januari 2014 juli 2015 januari 2015 juli 2016 januari 2016 juli-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Consumer Confidence
Propensity to buy
Financial Crisis
Euro Crisis
21© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
7,4 billion
677 euro per year
8,9 billion 815 euro per year
2014
-0.4% -17%Buyers
Pieces
-17%Spending
Internationalization + growth online offer + recession + stagnating consumer spending
Oversupply …. and 8,3% vacancy rate
2011 2016
Changing shopper behavior leads to € 1,5 bln lost sales in upperwear.
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ MAT JuneSource vacancy rate in m2: Locatus
22© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Development expenditures total upperwear
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ in value
Recovery is ahead, mostly due to more online salesE
xpen
ditu
res
* €
1.00
0.00
0
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
480 488 531 690 789 879 988 1080 1280
8612 8461 8319 82607541 6944 6564 6291 6127
9,092 8,949 8,850 8,950
8,330 7,823
7,552 7,372 7,407
Total
Offline
Online
23© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Development expenditures upperwear
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Upperwear 2+ in value
Strongest decrease in kids.
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
5,078
4,171
3,153
2,589
861 647
Ladies upperwear 12+ Men upperwear 12+ Kids upperwear 2-11
Exp
endi
ture
s *
€ 1.
000.
000
24© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Dutch fashion retailers are expanding.
Reasons to be optimistic.
25© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Independents are under pressure.
Retailsegments - 2016 vs. 2008
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ based on value
MAT June 2008 MAT June 2016
25.919.1
4.19.4
22.8 26.4
20.821.7
6.97.71.71.1
17.8 14.5Others
Discount store
Department store
(Multi) Brandstore
Clothing store
Homeshopping/internet only
Independents
% v
alue
26© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Three new retailers in the top 14.
Retail - 2016 vs. 2008
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ based on value, MAT June 2008 – MAT June 2016
OUT
STABLE IN
27© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Price and presence of the latest fashion is considered more important.
Average importance per aspect
4.17
4.47
3.69
3.63
3.69
3.93
3.78
4.17
3.67
3.93
3.23
ASPECTS
Prices
Special offers
Extensive collection
Quality of the clothing
Presence of the latest fashion
Availability of the right size
Expertise of staff
Friendliness of staff
Helpfulness of staff
Clear presentation
Store / website ambiance
2016 2007
3.98
3.78
3.82
4.17
3.17
4.40
3.61
4.03
3.85
3.58
3.76
Source: GfK Consumer Panel Netherlands
28© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
A completely different Top 5 „best appreciated retailers“ in upperwear age group under the age of 50 versus 50 year and older.
Best appreciated upperwear retailers 2016
Source: GfK Consumer Panel Netherlands
1. WINNER: Bonita 7.66
2. Witteveen 7.58
3. Claudia Sträter 7.54
4. Jeans Centre 7.53
5. Open 32 7.51
1. WINNER: Zalando 7.57
2. Esprit 7.42
3. Steps 7.41
4. Wehkamp.nl 7.40
5. Bon Prix 7.36
15-49 year 50 year and older
Best appreciated fashion webshop available October
first!
29© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
77% 77% 76% 73% 72% 70%66%
63%60%
22% 21% 22% 24% 25% 27%30% 31%
34%
1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6%
Pure offline buyers
Cross channel buyers
Pure online buyers
Development buyer profile upperwear 2+% buyers
40% of the fashion buyers bought online last year. Especially the amount of cross channel buyers has increased strongly.
30© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
69% 68% 67%63%
60%58%
54% 52%
47%
31% 32% 33%36%
38%41%
45%46% 50%
0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
Pure offline buyers
Cross Channel buyers
Pure online buyers
Development buyer profile upperwear 2+% value
34% of the upperwear buyers are cross channel buyers, who are responsible for half of the sales.
31© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Upperwear 2+ valueOnline sales since 2008 (index)
Online sales: bricks & clicks grow more than pure players since 2013.
€
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
50
100
150
200
250
300
267
244
298
Total Online Home Shopping / Pure players Bricks & Clicks
Inde
x in
val
ue (
2008
=100
)
52.347.7
Value %MAT June 2016
32© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Strong increase of online expenditures.
Online - 2016 vs. 2008
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ based on value
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2016
5.3% 17.3%
33© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Development promotion total upperwear
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ in units
Online sales grow, but with a lot of promotions.%
in u
nits
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
48.3
57.9
46.6
Total Total Online Total Offline
34© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Development average price total upperwear
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ – average price
More expensive (brand) items are purchased online, which raises average price.
€
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
19.96
27.16 24.98
24.25
Total Online Total Offline
35© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Wehkamp, H&M and Esprit stable online. Two new entries.
Top 5 online retail - 2016 vs. 2008
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ based on value
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2016
36© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Clash of the generations
37© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Source: CBSDevelopment Dutch population
Oldest age groups have grown the most
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0-11 year 12-19 year 20-29 year 30-39 year 40-49 year 50-64 year 65+ year
38© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Online sales 50+ grow more than younger generations since 2008.
MAT June 2008
MAT June 2009
MAT June 2010
MAT June 2011
MAT June 2012
MAT June 2013
MAT June 2014
MAT June 2015
MAT June 2016
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
267
231
234
327
496
Inde
x in
val
ue (
2008
=100
)
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ online, in value
Online sales since 2008 (index) - Upperwear 2+
50-64 years
65 years or older
35-49 years
15-34 years
Total 15+
39© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
65 years or older
50-64years
35-49years
% Online in value - upperwear 2+
Highest online share for the youngest age groups.
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ online, in valueMAT June 2016
15-34 years
23.2% 20.0% 13.9% 11.2%
17.3% online share total market
40© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
55.0
64.4
55.9
47.2
% upperwear bought in promotion online
Age group 35-49 buying above average in promotion online.
15-34 years
50-64 years
35-49 years
65 years or older
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ online, in units
% in
uni
ts
57.9% bought in promotion online
41© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
65 years or older
50-64years
35-49years
Top retailer online in value - upperwear 2+
Zalando no. 1 position youngest age group. Wehkamp strong in 35+.
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ online, in value, MAT June 2016
15-34 years
42© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
46.1 50.5 52.1
70.7
53.9 49.5 47.9
29.3
Bricks & Clicks
Home Shopping / Pure players
Online sales in value – upperwear 2+
More online bricks & clicks sales among the younger age groups.
15-34 years
50-64 years
35-49 years
65 years or older
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ online, in value
% in
val
ue
43© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
65 years or older
50-64years
35-49years
% online devices in value - upperwear 2+
Nearly 12% of online purchases by smartphone among the youngest age group.
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Total upperwear 2+ online, in value
15-34 years
75.4
12.811.7
73.8
20.65.6
82.5
15.3
2.2
84.9
14.50.6
44© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
65 years or older
50-64years
35-49years
Clothing styles – Ladies upperwear
Different clothing styles among age groups.
Source: GfK Consumer Panel NetherlandsMarket: Ladies upperwear 15+, above average buyers
15-34 years
45© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
But style extremes are getting smaller
relaxed
styled
chal
leng
ing safe
48© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016© GfK 2016 | Emerce Live
Keytakeaways
Age groups differ in shopping
behavior, but clothing
styles become more ageless
Mass digitization and changing consumers have upturned
fashion retail in the last years
The oldest age groups are the
fasters growers in online fashion
Increasing importance of both price
and assortment No compromise!
49© GfK May 1, 2023 | E-Fashion 2016
Thank youAny questions?
Presentation (extract) will be shared after personal request with business card.
Gino Thuij | GfK | [email protected] | M: 06-22200411
