Economic Indicators May 2014

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Economic Indicators

Last update 16.5.2014

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – May 2014

Europe:

• Consensus May GDP forecast for WE remained stable on 1,5% for 2014 and on 1,8% for 2015.

• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in April and

continued the positive development from the last months.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany slightly rose in April. Despite the crisis in Ukraine,

the positive mood in the Germany economy prevails.

• Latest data point to fairly positive growth in the Euro area. April’s manufacturing PMI picked up

again and retail sales rose in February and March, but employment remains very weak.

ECB, based on concerns regarding the Euro’s strength and low inflation, is widely expected to

cut its refinancing rate below the current record-low 0,25% in June.

US:

• Consensus May GDP forecast for the US decreased again from 2,7% to 2,5% for 2014.

Forecast for 2015 improved from 3,0% to now 3,1%.

• The US economy showed a mixed picture with a disappointing advance report for Q1 2014,

partly to be explained by frigid weather conditions, but also based on weakness from net trade

and inventories. On the other side Federal government spending rebounded after a decline in the

previous quarter, the trade deficit declined and the unemployment rate dropped.

Japan:

• The May GDP growth forecast for Japan remained stable on 1,3% for 2014 and 2015.

• Japanese household spending increased by its quickest rate in 39 years in March as

consumers stepped up their purchases in the build-up to the sales tax hike from 5% to 8%

implemented on April 1.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat May 14

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

14.Apr; 0,8

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat May 14

Apr.14; 0,7

May 14; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


10,5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Ja

n 0

8

Ja

n 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Ja

n 1

2

Ja

n 1

3

Ja

n 1

4

Ja

n 1

5

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in April, the industry remains in a

fairly positive mood.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 continued its positive path in April and reached

its highest level since October 2007.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

79,5

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14

The Ifo World Economic climate clouded slightly regarding expectations in Q2 2014

but remains friendly overall.

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14

The economic climate in Europe continued its positive path in Q2 2014.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14



Economic Indicators – IFO Asia Economic Climate

Source: IFO May 14


The economic climate in Asia slowed down quite significantly in Q2 2014.


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO May 14


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO May 14


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO May 14


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO May 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose slightly in April. Companies remain satisfied

with their current business situation and are more confident about future business

developments. Despite the crisis in Ukraine, the positive mood in the Germany economy

prevails.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO May 14

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose slightly in April. Companies remain satisfied

with their current business situation and are more confident about future business

developments. Despite the crisis in Ukraine, the positive mood in the Germany economy

prevails.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO May 14, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Ja

n 1

0

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved significantly from -3 to +10 in April.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – April 2014:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry is more optimistic again and improved by 12%points to 14%

in April.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – also improved considerably, reaching 10% after -3%

in the previous month.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months also improved. More

than a quarter of all companies expect an improvement of the business

situation in the coming 6 months.

Source: IFO May 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Global Advertising Growth – Zenith 4/14 Press Release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 4/14


Regional Advertising Development –

Zenith 4/14 Press Release



Global Advertising Market – Zenith 4/14 Press Release



Advertising by medium – Zenith 4/14 Press Release


Marketing

Economic Indicators May 2014