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Manufacturing’s Future
and What It Might Mean
for the Workforce
1
A FEW CORE BELIEFS: 1. Manufacturing is reemerging and
will become more important if
communities prepare themselves
2. We need to maintain places for
people to work and make things –
we all can’t live and work in a mixed
use world
3. We will need to help people create
their own jobs – which means
changing the risk profile of
economic development
4. We will need to get serious about
job training
2
WHAT IS MODERN INDUSTRY? CAN IT THRIVE IN THE U.S.?
3
MANUFACTURING IS NOT THIS ANYMORE
4
NOR THIS
5
IT’S MORE LIKELY TO BE THIS
6
OR THIS
7
OR EVEN THIS
8
AND TAKE PLACE HERE...
9
OR HERE
10
AND QUITE POSSIBLY HERE SOMEDAY
11
12
WARNING!
CONSULTANT JARGON
FORTHCOMING !
Advanced Manufacturing
Digital Manufacturing
Industrial 4.0
13
THE MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE
14
TRANSLATION
Source: DFKI (German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence), 2011
15
Computing power
Communication network speed
Cheap data storage
Digital to physical conversion technology
New materials and electronics
Human - Computer interfaces
Data visualization
WHAT IS DRIVING THIS ?
16
ARE JOBS GOING TO DISAPPEAR ? DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU STAND
17
ARE JOBS GOING TO DISAPPEAR ? DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU STAND
BCG Study for Germany – Impact of Industry 4.0
Source: BCG Perspectives Sept 2015
18
ARE JOBS GOING TO DISAPPEAR ? DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU STAND
BCG Study for Germany
Source: BCG Perspectives Sept 2015
Loss of 610k production related jobs (production (4% of production jobs),
quality control (7%), maintenance, production planning)
Gain of 210k new jobs related to new technology deployment, integration and
support
ROBOT COORDINATOR
Additional gain of 700k+ jobs from new product opportunities related to
intelligent machinery, and more custom products
Net gain of 350k jobs
19
WARNING!
MORE CONSULTANT JARGON
FORTHCOMING !
20
OPPORTUNITIES WILL EMERGE THAT ARE HARD TO FORESEE
MICRO PLANTS
POP UP FACTORIES
DECONSTRUCTED VALUE CHAINS (INDUSTRIAL
ECO SYSTEM)
HYPER SPECIALIZED SUPPLIERS
and a new jobs yet to be defined – ROBOT
COORDINATOR
Additive Manufacturing
THE FUTURE OF MANUFACTURING IS ALREADY HERE
21
$6b to $10.8b by 2021 (Wolters)
Aerospace major mover in metals
Materials advances making it more
practical
DIGITAL HAS ALREADY IMPACTED MANUFACTURING
PRINTING: YESTERDAY
PRINTING: TODAY
22
At one time this was a growing industry
Now commercial printing facilities are ….
Challenged due to technology
23Credits to Chris Anderson
BUT WAIT – THERE’S MORE – THE OTHER MFG RENAISSANCE
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“FOR PROFIT”MAKER ACTIVITY MORE PREVALENT THAN MOST REALIZE
25
FROM MAKER TO PRODUCT ENTREPRENEUR
26
Firms
Employees
IT’S REAL AND MAKING AN IMPACT
Massachusetts
RE-INDUSTRIAL
TOOLBOX
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Land & Buildings
Supply Chain
Access & Mobility
Talent
LAND & BUILDINGS THAT “FIT” ARE CRITICAL
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Old industrial building – notice column
structure & ceiling clearance
Modern high bay building – notice column structure & ceiling clearance
TEST FIT YOUR LAND AND ROADS
29
CONTEMPORARY INDUSTRIAL SPACE REFLECTS CHANGES IN MANUFACTURING
PROCESS AND LOGISTIC REQUIREMENTS
SOURCE: images Northeastern University Urban Manufacturing Design Studio, 201430
SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENT IS AN INCREASING FOCUS
31
UNDERSTAND LABOR SHED TO UNDERSTAND ACCESS AND MOBILITY
ISSUES
32
“WE HAVE A WORKFORCE PROBLEM”
33
Industry says…
We can’t find
anyone qualified
Workforce system
says…
Tell us what you need
and we can provide
the training
They can’t
define the skills
they need
I can train them
– I can’t find
people who can
pass the initial
screen
MANUFACTURING WORKFORCE THOUGHT EXPERIMENT
34
City of Philadelphia
Sample of Production Worker Age & Percentage of Occupational CategoryAge 55 to 64
% of Total Occupation
Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers 33 23%
Team Assemblers 318 17%
Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal and Plastic 36 21%
Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic29 21%
Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 54 20%
Machinists 149 25%
Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic 32 22%
Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 53 23%
Production Workers, All Other 24 16%
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 1096 13%
1824 production workers in these sample categories are over 55
Source: Philadelphia Manufacturing Strategy - 2013
HIRING PROCESS ATTRITION
35
COMPANY A
1053 applications requested
562 applications received
524 take pre-employment
exam
227 pass exam
20 invites to highest
test scores
10 offers
COMPANY B
780 pre-applications completed
Notified drug test would be required
475 completed full application
430 took employment test
75 passed test
75 Group Dynamics test
29 Interviewed
15 offers
Source: Philadelphia Manufacturing Strategy - 2013
36
OBSERVATIONS ON THE WORKFORCE PROBLEM
Some of the attrition is reflective of broader social issues
Some is tied to lack of basic skills in math and literacy
The remainder are “classic” workforce issues
In other words 70%-80% of the “workforce problem” is not one
the workforce training system was designed to solve but owns
the policy “baggage”
HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM – OR DO WE?
Based on present yield rates from cases it would take 30,000 to 60,000 candidates over 10 years to fill those jobs
Conventional wisdom says for manufacturers to survive: either workforce system will
need to become more holistic to address social and basic literacy issues to ramp up
dramatic gains in productivity as well as increased automation will be required to replace these workers
37
Or does industrial 4.0
address the production
worker problem?
Will job losses caused by 4.0
be actual dislocation?
Will we be spending limited
training resources on jobs
that may not exist in 10
years?
IT’S PROBABLY NOT PROGRAM AVAILABILITY – IT’S TAKE UP
38
• Community College of Philadelphia engineering technologies did not issue any degrees or certificates in
manufacturing related fields
• Camden County and Delaware County offer programming
• For Allegheny County as an illustration take up rates are still low in manufacturing oriented fields
• 4 industrial production technologies
• 2 mechanical technologies
• 6 electrical engineering
Source: Philadelphia Manufacturing Strategy - 2013
39
THE IMAGE ISSUE MUST GET FIXED
PART OF PROBLEM IS THERE IS NO SUCH THING
AS “MANUFACTURING”MAKING SHOES AND MAKING STEEL ARE
ABOUT AS DIFFERENT AS IT GETS
40
AND THEN THERE IS OWEN
MANUFACTURING’S 4.0 FUTURE SUGGESTS A NEED FOR OWENS
41
NUMBER IS GOING UP
42
HIS FRIENDS NOT SO SURE ABOUT THIS INDUSTRIAL THING
43
PARENTS ARE OLD SCHOOL MANUFACTURING
Sledgehammer
44
FOR COMMUNITIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY OWEN MAY BE A DOUBLE-
EDGED PROBLEM
45
YOU MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH OWENS WHICH MEANS YOU NEED TO
BUILD A PIPELINE
46
YOUR PIPELINE MAY NOT BE BIG ENOUGH WHICH MEANS YOU NEED
TO RECRUIT
47
AND NOW YOUR ENTERING A WHOLE DIFFERENT ZONE OF
COMPETITION – BUILDING A DESTINATION COMMUNITY
GROWTH IN CREATIVE & INNOVATION-BASED ENTERPRISES IS DRIVEN BY TALENT
And
TALENT IS ATTRACTED BY A COMBINATION OF OPPORTUNITIES & LIFESTYLE
Therefore,
TO WIN AT THE TALENT RECRUITMENT GAME YOU NEED TO BUILD A DESTINATION
COMMUNITY - THE TYPE OF COMMUNITY WHERE TALENT EITHER WANTS TO LIVE OR
WANTS TO WORK FOR CAREER REASONS AND IDEALLY DOES BOTH
48
BUT OWEN DIDN’T NECESSARILY NEED TO GO TO COLLEGE
Talent might be in your backyard
But need to rewire job market
Have structures and programs to build credentials to overcome degree bias
49
PARTING THOUGHTS
Manufacturing is changing
The impact is unclear but it will be real
Many levers are needed to bring it back to your region
Manufacturing’s talent needs are changing
Balancing the legacy job market needs and emerging needs is a
major issue
Offering programming isn’t enough; must help drive demand
THE END
50