Western Australia Police

The Rise of

Evidence-Based

Policing

December 2015

The Changing Landscape - Technology has advanced more

in the last thirty years, than in the previous two thousand;

your organisation can only rely on one thing in determining its

future end-state………….. CHANGE, CHANGE, CHANGE. John Kotter

We have a new metropolitan operating model (RWA Model Under development), however essentially we are still delivering

old policing activities.

EBP = better understanding of

what works;

what doesn't; and

what's promising

EBP = Demand reduction and

problem solving (the “outside view”)

To share the EBP philosophy

within our agency and engage you in this exciting program

Why are we here?

This Evidence-Based Policing Program

– The Anchor Point –

It will be confronting It will be challenging

There will be new terminology, technology, methodology

You will have to think hard, ask questions, debate the issues

and make up you own mind

We need to know what worksWe need to be able to target resources

where they can be most effective

We need to know what reduces crimeWe need greater scope to sight

opportunities for crime prevention and reduction

• Random patrol

• Rapid response

• Reactive Investigation

Policing in 1975was largely in a

one-sized-fits-all strategy,

sometimes described as the

Three R’s

The Scale of Our Problem

Exactly Right Decisions

• Aiming for greatest impact. Targeting

• Deciding what works. Testing

• Making sure it happens. Tracking

Those who will die even with

immediate medical

attention

Those who will live even without

immediate medical

attention

Those who only with

immediate medical

attention will live

Triage: Live-or-Die Few

Targeting Concentrations of Crime:

“The Power Few”

• 17% of offenders yield 50% of arrests

• 3% of addresses yield 50% of police calls

• 1% of police officers yield most complaints

• Crime reduction: 15% of street segments in

Seattle produced 50% reduction in crime.

Where would you apply your resources?

The application of scarce resources directed at the small concentrations

of places, victims and offenders in any distribution of crime which

produces the greatest amount of harm

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Crime Peaks vs Crime Valleys

Focus

• Places, offenders, victims, gangs

• Specific Crime Types

Classify

• Concentrations

• Causes

Prioritize

• Greatest impact

• Best chance of success

Targeting – The Power Few

Philadelphia Robbery Hot Spots

Comparing two methods

Same kind of problems\ • Which one works

better?

• Which one costs less?

• Which one gets best result for same cost?

Then asking:

Testing

Randomised Controlled Trials

Crime Where When

Security Who What

Match? Ratios Trends Feedback

Tracking Outputs against

outcomes

• Take what we have and Realign effort to reduce demand based on those outcomes,

• Making sure we have productivity measures in place to ensure efforts are been

targeted towards demand reduction.

• Visioning process – looking ahead give EBP greater scope to sight opportunities for

crime reductions.

• Hand off - Build on the great work undertaken by our people to ensure investment is

focused on what works or what doesn’t work – Feedback Loop

• Experimental outcomes will assist in directing effort where it is most needed

How Do We Get There?

Punching Blind – swinging but not hitting the mark

The defensive responses to change:

•“Yeah we do that here. “Yeah we tried that, but it didn’t work.”

•“Yeah but it’s different here.”

Sometimes we react instinctively – because that’s how we have been taught / done it in the past

You are employed to ‘research, analyse and think’ about policing as much you are

employed to deliver policing.

Progress is impossible without change

The Importance of

the ‘Outside View’

The Evidence-Based

Policing Project

Project team commenced in January 2015 within the Policing Improvement Division.

Established under the 7th Stream of Reform.

Superintendent Noreen O’Rourke Senior Responsible Officer, Evidence-Based Policing

Inspector Tony Longhorn– Project Lead

• Project Officers

• Data collection, trend analysis, experimental design

Data Analytics and Assessment Officer x 5

Geospatial Analyst x 1

Data Extraction x 1

Project Managers x 5

• Cradle to grave training, internal and external.

• Liaison for workshops in August and December.

Training and Development x 2

The Team

• Geospatial analysis and targeting

• Data provisioning services

• Manages the project from design to evaluation.

• Steering and working group facilitation.

Project Admin x 2• WBS, Gantt, risks, issues and reporting

• Project documentation

• Project Management

• Data collection and trend analysisEBPU skills

Frontline skills

Nudge Framework

• Internal record of experiment design and outcomes

• External record of experimental outcomesRegistry of Projects

Training and

Capability

• Masterclass and video workshops

• Data collection and trend analysis

• Experiment Proposals via crowdsourcing ideas

• Support and guidance from EBPU

Crackdown

First evidence based operation undertaken by

WA Police

Discovering

what works,

what’s promisingand

what doesn’t work

Use this information to

develop a crackdown

model for WA

Operation about targeting

resources for greater impact

Crackdown

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Day o

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Time of Day (in half-hour increments)

Fremantle Aoristic Crime Analysis: 2009/2014 financial year

0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25

Crackdown

Crackdown

Crackdown

Did it Work??

Findings

Findings

Weighing up variations in crime count, the most effective treatment strategy

was assessed to be the ‘all weeks on’ approach in Mandurah.

However from a cost benefit perspective, Strategy # 1 (Fremantle – week

on/off) and Strategy # 4 (Mandurah – all weeks on) showed similar outcomes,

with # 1 being 2/3 the resource cost of the other.

If a Crackdown was conducted again in the same locations for 12 weeks

using a week-on week-off strategy, the deployment costs could be reduced by

$53,280.

We can only confirm this by testing this approach in a subsequent Crackdown

operation in other entertainment precincts.

Turning Point

First time offenders who commit low risk

offences.

Program based on the principles of:

• Deterrence

• Desistance

• Diversion

Turning point agreement combines a deferred

prosecution with a set of conditions and

treatments agreed with the offender

These conditions are intended to address

underlying issues and deter further offending

Simple and achievable agreement

Turning Point

Turning Point

Excluded Offences All offences listed in Schedule 1 or Schedule 2 of the Young Offenders Act 1994;

Traffic related offences

Graffiti offences

Offences involving the use or threatened use of any prohibited or controlled weapon;

Domestic violence

Sexual or indecency offences;

Possession or attempted possession of drugs (sell/supply amounts);

Theft of property (excluding stolen motor vehicles) with a value exceeding $10,000;

Fraud exceeding $10,000;

Damage to property to a value exceeding $10,000;

Burglary – adult offending only

Breach of Bail or any other court initiated order;

Assault Public Officer

Offences related to national security;

Racist harassment/incitement to racial hatred

Offence must occur within the district and offender must reside within the district

Turning Point

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Offence

Offence Type of TP Participants

Turning Point

Gender: Male

Age: 19

Ethnicity: Caucasian

Offence: 1 x Carry or Possess Weapon other than Controlled or Prohibited with Intent to

Cause Fear

The participant was referred to Turning Point following an altercation with a neighbour

where he armed himself with a knife. When challenged by the neighbour, he realised his

error in judgement and ran back inside his house. He has since apologised to the neighbour

involved. During his meeting with the TPMT, the participant admitted that he has anger

management problems and was referred to anger management counselling as part of his

four month Agreement. He was also offered advice regarding seeking training to raise his

future employment prospects and provided a brochure of service providers.

Body Worn Video

A trial of body worn video across the

Agency.

Provides greater transparency

around incidents involving the public.

• increase early guilty pleas

• decrease police complaints

• use of force incidents

• increase community satisfaction (coming into contact with police)

• increased officer confidence

Benefits realised in

other jurisdictions have been:

Body Worn Video

• EBP exposure through watching and workshopping 24 of the 100 discoveries in EBP

• We intend to consider each of the 100 EBP discoveries for implementation in WA Police

The next phase…

EBP – In 100 Discoveries

“Policing in 1975 was largely delivered in a one-size-fits-all strategy, sometimes described as the “Three Rs”: random patrol, rapid response, and reactive investigations’’

Questions?

The Rise of Evidenced Based Policing

Lawrence Sherman (2013).