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Changing society and globalisation– new threats and opportunities?

Dr Liz Campbellliz.campbell@ed.ac.uk

Enlighten…

Overview

• Changes in UK society – 1950s onwards…

• Global changes – and those still to come?

• Globalisation – meaning, cause, effects?

• Threats

• Opportunities

• Concluding remarks

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Changes in society

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Technological shifts

• Internet coverage: 16% in 2004, 82% in 2014 • Smart phone ownership:27% adults in 2011; 51% in 2013; now 61%• Use of online shopping and banking

Source : OFCOM

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Technological shifts:use of social media

Source: Guardian, 4/2/14

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Global population growth

Source: Science, 2014

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• “Global North” became mostly urban around 1950

• Developing regions still mostly rural

• Majority will live in urban areas by 2030;

70% by 2050

Source: UN, 2013

Urbanisation

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Effect of global population changes

Pressure on resources Environmental

exploitation

Geo-political consequences

Global inequality

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Share of global wealth of the top 1% and bottom 99% respectively

Source: Credit Suisse (Oxfam 2014)

• Moore’s law

• Internet access: EU 75%, globally 39%

• Mobile money

• Darknet

• Virtual currencies

Technological changes

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Looking forward…

• Population growth • Aging • Resourceimplications

Geopolitics?

Source: UN, 2013

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• Technology

• 3-d printers

• Drones

• Quantum computers

• Deepweb

• Worldwide currency? Or diversification?

Looking forward…

Globalisation

• international integration of markets in goods, services, capital

• integration of economies, industries, markets, cultures, policy-making

• increased labour mobility

• cultural homogenisation

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Origin of threats

• “criminogenic asymmetries” (N. Passas)

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Asymmetries:inequalities and

uneven factors in relation to the

economy, politics, culture, and legal

regulation

Criminogenicin terms of the effect on

demand,motivation and

responses

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Types of global crime threats

• Human trafficking, migrant smuggling

• Illegal drugs trade

• Cybercrime

• Firearms trafficking

• Illegal trade of environmental

resources

• Production & sale of counterfeit

goods

• LINKED TO geopolitical instability -- national security?

Opportunities

• For who?

• Criminal actors

• Cybercrime

• Trafficking

• Legitimate state/private actors

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Cybercrime

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• Golden rule of computer security• A ‘new’ type of crime -- or same

crime(s), new means?• “Hacktivism”• State-sponsored• Jurisdictional issues

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• …of people and of goods, such as drugs, environmental resources, firearms and counterfeit products

• Source and market countries

Trafficking

Concluding remarks

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“A new breed of organisedcrime groups is emerging inEurope, capable of operatingin multiple countries and criminal sectors. These groupsare no longer defined by their nationality or specialisation in one area of crime but by an ability to operate on an internationalbasis, with a business-like focus on maximising profit and minimising risk.They are the epitome of our new globalised society.”

-- Rob Wainwright, 2013.

Concluding remarks

• Revision of orthodox interpretations of crime -- and workable reactions

• Significance of inequalities/unevenness in the economy, politics, culture & legal regulation

• Public complicity?

• The four Ps – and globalisation

• Pursue – Prevent – Protect – Prepare

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