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Tupras, 3 Quarter Analyst Teleconference Presentation.
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1
Results for 3rd Quarter 2009Analyst Teleconference
2
Key Messages
• Benchmark MarginsEven Worse
• Tupras MarginsMaintained
Margins
• Still no pick up in localdemand
Demand
• No Change
• Low Volumes
• High Yields
• Low Exports
Strategy
• Final Choice of Contractor Imminent
Coker Update
3
Market
Operations
Financials
4
Global Crude Differentials $/bbl
6.0
4.9
3.6
4.3
5.4
6.4
5.3
7.6
5.7
3.1
2.0
3.7
3.2
2.3 2.4
3.3
4.7
2.4
1.7
1.1 0.9
0.3
58
6975
89
97
121
115
55
44
59
68
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09
Iran Heavy Ural Brent
Last 4 Quarters Brent Wave Adjusted Figures for Iran Heavy
5
1.22
1.19
1.11
0.74
1.26
1.28
1.03
0.82
1.12
1.10
1.14
0.90
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Diesel
Jet
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
2009 2008 2007
3rd Q Product Ratios (bbl/bbl Brent)
0.770.80
0.77
0.82
0.860.84
0.90 0.890.91
0.75
0.85
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
1.45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Diesel Jet Gasoline Fuel Oil
2009 Price Ratios to Brent
6
Turkish Market versus Tüpraş ( 9M - Thousand Tons)
1475
-1,063
167
-895
-444
-45
75
-876
310
-566
-450
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Gasoline Jet Fuel 1000ppm Diesel 10ppm Diesel Total Gasoil Fuel Oil
Tüpraş Market
7
Market
Operations
Financials
8
Production, Ton*000
9M 2008 9M 2009 3Q 2008 3Q 2009
600 473 (127) LPG 195 180 (14)
495 4 (491) Naphtha 187 0 (187)
3,316 2,855 (462) Gasoline 1,160 1,140 (20)
2,260 1,448 (811) Jet Fuel 813 561 (252)
3,234 1,737 (1,497) Diesel 1,255 452 (803)
1,857 1,896 39 Diesel 50 / 10 658 829 171
7,350 5,081 (2,269) Middle Distillate 2,726 1,843 (883)
3,912 1,593 (2,319) Fuel Oil 1,032 333 (700)
250 169 (81) Lube Oil 87 78 (9)
1,689 1,485 (204) Asphalt 939 745 (194)
295 225 (70) Other 157 119 (38)
17,907 11,885 (6,022) Total 6,484 4,439 (2,046)
32.24 32.29 0.05 Crude API 32.15 31.63 (0.52)
9
Gasoline24.0%
Naphtha0.0%
Jet12.2%
1000 ppm Gas Oil14.6%
ULSD15.9%
Other3.3%
LPG4.0%
Fuel Oil13.4%
Asphalt12.5%
OtherWhite
BlackProducts 24.1%
42.8%
7.3%
25.9%
Gasoline18.5%
Naphtha2.8%
Jet12.6%
1000 ppm Gas Oil18.1%
ULSD10.4%
Other3.0%
LPG3.4%
Fuel Oil21.8%
Asphalt9.4%
21.3%
41.0%
6.4%
31.3%
9M Products Yields
Middle Distillate
LightDistillateBlack
Products
White Product 73.2%Production : 11.9 mn ton
2008 2009
Other White
White Product 68.2 %Production : 17.9 mn ton
LightDistillate
MiddleDistillate
BlackProducts
Other White
10
Domestic Sales, Ton*000
9M 2008 9M 2009 Product 3Q 2008 3Q 2009
711 655 (56) LPG 243 244 2
427 83 (344) Naphtha 142 0 (142)
1,500 1,514 14 Gasoline 602 594 (8)
1,811 2,015 204 Jet Fuel 703 804 101
4,816 3,782 (1,035) Diesel 1,760 1,355 (405)
1,589 1,756 167 Diesel 50/10 ppm 629 688 59
8,216 7,553 (663) Middle Distillate 3,092 2,847 (245)
2,300 2,085 (215) Fuel Oil 711 480 (231)
1,678 1,474 (204) Asphalt 990 793 (197)
393 417 24 Other 107 183 76
15,224 13,780 (1,444) Total 5,885 5,141 (744)
11
Full Year (Million Tons)
2.6
1.1
2.3
0.2
2.2
0.9
2.7
0.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Gasoline Middle Dist.
Fuel Oil Other
2007
2008
9 Month (KTons)
1,863
720
2,073
152
1,452
151
802
150
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Gasoline Middle Dist.
Fuel Oil Other
2008
2009
Export Volumes
12
Production – Import - Sales Balance / 9M
17.9
11.9
2.2
4.5
15.213.8
4.8
2.4
20.1 20.0
16.4 16.2
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2008 2009
Export Domestic SalesImport Production
12
(million ton)
20092008
13
3.79
1.56
6.37
1.87
5.38
3.75
6.72
1.59
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2006 3rd Q 2007 3rd Q 2008 3rd Q 2009 3rd Q
Tüpraş Net Margin Med Complex
• Lower blackproducts, optimised for highvalue products
Yields
• ASRFO, HVGO, Naphtha
Semi Finished Products
• Less Exports
Domestic Focus
Net Refining Margins
13
14
9M Trading Activities
• Finished Products
– Gasoil imports up 20%
– LPG & Jet imported to make up shortfall
109
862
150
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
HVGO + LCGO
ASR F.Oil Naphtha+ Other
Intermediate Imports, Ton*000
2008 2009
39
1,857
301134
2,233
401
30
565
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
LPG Diesel LSFO F.Oil Jet
Product Imports, Ton*000
2008 2009
• Intermediates
– HVGO & ASRFO were imported to keep the hydrocrackers running full capacity.
– Naphtha imported to producegasoline
15
Opet
-14.6
47.6
13.317.6
51.4
28.5
43.1
70.4
51.8
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q
Financials*, mn TL
Net Profit Operating Profit Gross Profit
• Results
– EBITDA $191 Million
• Network
– Opet: 795, Sunpet: 544,
– Total 1,339
• Terminal Capacity
– 1,128,500m3.
11.5
13.5
14.9
16.517.3
12.8
14.615.2
16.1 16.3
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 - 9M
% Market Share Development
Gasoline
Diesel
* Tüpraş’s 40% share
16
Market
Operations
Financials
17
Profitability Indicators , January-September
2008 2009Difference
Amount (%)
Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 111.02 57.15 -53.87 -48.5
Brent vs Tüpraş Crude Cost, ($/bbl) 5.30 1.91 -3.39 -64.0
Processed Crude API 32.24 32.29 0.05 0.2
White Product Yield, (%) 68.20 73.20 5.0 7.3
Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 5.57 2.15 -3.42 -61.4
Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 4.88 2.09 -2.79 -57%
Operating Profit, (mn. $) 1,189 474 -715 -60.1
EBITDA (mn. $) 1,286 566 -720 -56.0
EBITDA (mn. $) CCS 1,105 484 -621 -56.2
Opet Operating Profit -40% (mn. $) 86.29 62.44 -23.85 -27.6
Opet EBITDA -40% (mn. $) 102.41 76.21 -26.2 -25.6
18
Financial Highlights (mn $)
769 712
1081 11161286
566
0
500
1000
1500
2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009
EBITDA
508 575
998
333
932
392
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009
Net Income
-421
259
-229
215 199
-617-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009
Net Debt/(Cash)
0.220.25
0.34
0.12
0.37
0.23
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009
Return on Average Equity
19
FX Risk Exposure (30 September 2009 )
Million $
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
Financial Loans: 321
Short Term Loans: 274
Payables: 1,925
Stock : 1,343
Recievables:82
Cash: 968
-128
Sole Tüpraş -90 Million $
20
Income Statement
9 M 9 M% Diff. Million USD
3Q 3Q% Diff.
2009 2008 2009 2008
9.438 20.122 -53 Net Sales 4.406 7.814 -44
760 1.549 -51 Gross Profit 317 508 -38
-318 -390 -18 Operating Expenses -129 -135 -4
32 30 7Income/Loss from other
operations17 11 58
474 1.189 -60 Operating Profit 204 384 -47
131 240 -45 Financial Income 63 90 -30
-114 -256 -55 Finance Expenses -34 -34 0
490 1.173 -58 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 232 440 -47
392 932 -58 Net Profit 184 347 -47
21
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets
Million USD30 Sept.
2009End 2008 Difference
%
Difference
Current Assets 4.307 2.923 1.384 47
Cash & C. Equivalents 1.843 970 873 90
Receivables 770 722 47 7
Inventories 1.345 836 509 61
Other Current Assets 349 394 -45 -11
Long Term Assets 2.969 2.788 180 6
Financial Assets 51 46 5 10
Goodwill 128 125 3 2
Fixed Assets 2.390 2.232 158 7
Other Long Term Assets 401 385 15 4
Total Assets 7.276 5.711 1.565 27
22
Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities
Million USD30 Sept.
2009End 2008 Difference % Difference
Short Term Liabilities 4.163 2.720 1.443 53
Financial Loans 905 852 53 6
Payables 2.148 1.048 1.100 105
Provisions 87 53 34 64
Other ST Liabilities 1.023 768 256 33
Long Term Liabilities 689 639 50 8
Financial Loans 321 333 -12 -4
Payables & Provisions 0 1 -1 -100
Tax Payable 132 104 28 27
Other LT Liabilities 237 201 36 18
Equity 2.395 2.326 69 3
Minority Interests 28 25 3 11
Total Liabilities 7.276 5.711 1.565 27
23
3rd Quarter Operating Profit and Inventory Effect
23
Million $
Crude processed
(000barrel /day) Operating Profit İnventory Loss
Operating Profit (w/o
İnventory loss )
EBIT Before
Inventory Loss ($/v)
3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08
Tüpraş 368 550 207 390 24 -124 183 514 5.47 7.79
Neste oil 224 224 162 66 102 -233 60 299 2.94 3.24
OMV 415 430 52 -95 77 -110 -26 15 -0.68 -2.42
Valero 2,379 2,587 -579 1,840 0 0 -579 1,840 -2.67 7.82
ConocoPhilips 2,382 2,318 99 849 0 0 99 849 0.46 4.02
Exxon mobil 5,352 5,354 325 3,013 0 0 325 3,013 0.67 6.18
Eni 737 732 49 644 206 302 -157 341 -2.35 9.67
SHELL 2,997 3,273 1,543 -123 251 -2,543 1,292 2,420 4.74 -0.41
BP 2,329 2,185 1,433 -823 517 -2,795 916 1,972 4.32 -4.14
Total 2,142 2,393 231 170 212 -1,572 19 1,742 0.10 0.78
SARAS 273 308 -145 30 33 -90 -178 120 -7.16 1.07
Chevron 1,864 1,898 194 1,831 0 0 194 1,831 1.14 10.60
Petroplus 527 640 -256 -471 10 -645 -266 174 -5.55 -8.08
24
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.