24
1 Results for 3rd Quarter 2009 Analyst Teleconference

Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Page 1: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

1

Results for 3rd Quarter 2009Analyst Teleconference

Page 2: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

2

Key Messages

• Benchmark MarginsEven Worse

• Tupras MarginsMaintained

Margins

• Still no pick up in localdemand

Demand

• No Change

• Low Volumes

• High Yields

• Low Exports

Strategy

• Final Choice of Contractor Imminent

Coker Update

Page 3: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

3

Market

Operations

Financials

Page 4: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

4

Global Crude Differentials $/bbl

6.0

4.9

3.6

4.3

5.4

6.4

5.3

7.6

5.7

3.1

2.0

3.7

3.2

2.3 2.4

3.3

4.7

2.4

1.7

1.1 0.9

0.3

58

6975

89

97

121

115

55

44

59

68

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09

Iran Heavy Ural Brent

Last 4 Quarters Brent Wave Adjusted Figures for Iran Heavy

Page 5: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

5

1.22

1.19

1.11

0.74

1.26

1.28

1.03

0.82

1.12

1.10

1.14

0.90

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Diesel

Jet

Gasoline

Fuel Oil

2009 2008 2007

3rd Q Product Ratios (bbl/bbl Brent)

0.770.80

0.77

0.82

0.860.84

0.90 0.890.91

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

1.45

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Diesel Jet Gasoline Fuel Oil

2009 Price Ratios to Brent

Page 6: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

6

Turkish Market versus Tüpraş ( 9M - Thousand Tons)

1475

-1,063

167

-895

-444

-45

75

-876

310

-566

-450

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Gasoline Jet Fuel 1000ppm Diesel 10ppm Diesel Total Gasoil Fuel Oil

Tüpraş Market

Page 7: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

7

Market

Operations

Financials

Page 8: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

8

Production, Ton*000

9M 2008 9M 2009 3Q 2008 3Q 2009

600 473 (127) LPG 195 180 (14)

495 4 (491) Naphtha 187 0 (187)

3,316 2,855 (462) Gasoline 1,160 1,140 (20)

2,260 1,448 (811) Jet Fuel 813 561 (252)

3,234 1,737 (1,497) Diesel 1,255 452 (803)

1,857 1,896 39 Diesel 50 / 10 658 829 171

7,350 5,081 (2,269) Middle Distillate 2,726 1,843 (883)

3,912 1,593 (2,319) Fuel Oil 1,032 333 (700)

250 169 (81) Lube Oil 87 78 (9)

1,689 1,485 (204) Asphalt 939 745 (194)

295 225 (70) Other 157 119 (38)

17,907 11,885 (6,022) Total 6,484 4,439 (2,046)

32.24 32.29 0.05 Crude API 32.15 31.63 (0.52)

Page 9: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Gasoline24.0%

Naphtha0.0%

Jet12.2%

1000 ppm Gas Oil14.6%

ULSD15.9%

Other3.3%

LPG4.0%

Fuel Oil13.4%

Asphalt12.5%

OtherWhite

BlackProducts 24.1%

42.8%

7.3%

25.9%

Gasoline18.5%

Naphtha2.8%

Jet12.6%

1000 ppm Gas Oil18.1%

ULSD10.4%

Other3.0%

LPG3.4%

Fuel Oil21.8%

Asphalt9.4%

21.3%

41.0%

6.4%

31.3%

9M Products Yields

Middle Distillate

LightDistillateBlack

Products

White Product 73.2%Production : 11.9 mn ton

2008 2009

Other White

White Product 68.2 %Production : 17.9 mn ton

LightDistillate

MiddleDistillate

BlackProducts

Other White

Page 10: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

10

Domestic Sales, Ton*000

9M 2008 9M 2009 Product 3Q 2008 3Q 2009

711 655 (56) LPG 243 244 2

427 83 (344) Naphtha 142 0 (142)

1,500 1,514 14 Gasoline 602 594 (8)

1,811 2,015 204 Jet Fuel 703 804 101

4,816 3,782 (1,035) Diesel 1,760 1,355 (405)

1,589 1,756 167 Diesel 50/10 ppm 629 688 59

8,216 7,553 (663) Middle Distillate 3,092 2,847 (245)

2,300 2,085 (215) Fuel Oil 711 480 (231)

1,678 1,474 (204) Asphalt 990 793 (197)

393 417 24 Other 107 183 76

15,224 13,780 (1,444) Total 5,885 5,141 (744)

Page 11: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

11

Full Year (Million Tons)

2.6

1.1

2.3

0.2

2.2

0.9

2.7

0.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other

2007

2008

9 Month (KTons)

1,863

720

2,073

152

1,452

151

802

150

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other

2008

2009

Export Volumes

Page 12: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

12

Production – Import - Sales Balance / 9M

17.9

11.9

2.2

4.5

15.213.8

4.8

2.4

20.1 20.0

16.4 16.2

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2008 2009

Export Domestic SalesImport Production

12

(million ton)

20092008

Page 13: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

13

3.79

1.56

6.37

1.87

5.38

3.75

6.72

1.59

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2006 3rd Q 2007 3rd Q 2008 3rd Q 2009 3rd Q

Tüpraş Net Margin Med Complex

• Lower blackproducts, optimised for highvalue products

Yields

• ASRFO, HVGO, Naphtha

Semi Finished Products

• Less Exports

Domestic Focus

Net Refining Margins

13

Page 14: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

14

9M Trading Activities

• Finished Products

– Gasoil imports up 20%

– LPG & Jet imported to make up shortfall

109

862

150

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

HVGO + LCGO

ASR F.Oil Naphtha+ Other

Intermediate Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

39

1,857

301134

2,233

401

30

565

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

LPG Diesel LSFO F.Oil Jet

Product Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

• Intermediates

– HVGO & ASRFO were imported to keep the hydrocrackers running full capacity.

– Naphtha imported to producegasoline

Page 15: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

15

Opet

-14.6

47.6

13.317.6

51.4

28.5

43.1

70.4

51.8

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1st Q 2nd Q 3rd Q

Financials*, mn TL

Net Profit Operating Profit Gross Profit

• Results

– EBITDA $191 Million

• Network

– Opet: 795, Sunpet: 544,

– Total 1,339

• Terminal Capacity

– 1,128,500m3.

11.5

13.5

14.9

16.517.3

12.8

14.615.2

16.1 16.3

8

10

12

14

16

18

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 - 9M

% Market Share Development

Gasoline

Diesel

* Tüpraş’s 40% share

Page 16: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Market

Operations

Financials

Page 17: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Profitability Indicators , January-September

2008 2009Difference

Amount (%)

Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 111.02 57.15 -53.87 -48.5

Brent vs Tüpraş Crude Cost, ($/bbl) 5.30 1.91 -3.39 -64.0

Processed Crude API 32.24 32.29 0.05 0.2

White Product Yield, (%) 68.20 73.20 5.0 7.3

Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 5.57 2.15 -3.42 -61.4

Tüpraş Net Margin,($/bbl) 4.88 2.09 -2.79 -57%

Operating Profit, (mn. $) 1,189 474 -715 -60.1

EBITDA (mn. $) 1,286 566 -720 -56.0

EBITDA (mn. $) CCS 1,105 484 -621 -56.2

Opet Operating Profit -40% (mn. $) 86.29 62.44 -23.85 -27.6

Opet EBITDA -40% (mn. $) 102.41 76.21 -26.2 -25.6

Page 18: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Financial Highlights (mn $)

769 712

1081 11161286

566

0

500

1000

1500

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009

EBITDA

508 575

998

333

932

392

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009

Net Income

-421

259

-229

215 199

-617-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009

Net Debt/(Cash)

0.220.25

0.34

0.12

0.37

0.23

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2005 2006 2007 2008 9M 2008 9M 2009

Return on Average Equity

Page 19: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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FX Risk Exposure (30 September 2009 )

Million $

ConsolidatedAssets

ConsolidatedLiabilities

Financial Loans: 321

Short Term Loans: 274

Payables: 1,925

Stock : 1,343

Recievables:82

Cash: 968

-128

Sole Tüpraş -90 Million $

Page 20: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Income Statement

9 M 9 M% Diff. Million USD

3Q 3Q% Diff.

2009 2008 2009 2008

9.438 20.122 -53 Net Sales 4.406 7.814 -44

760 1.549 -51 Gross Profit 317 508 -38

-318 -390 -18 Operating Expenses -129 -135 -4

32 30 7Income/Loss from other

operations17 11 58

474 1.189 -60 Operating Profit 204 384 -47

131 240 -45 Financial Income 63 90 -30

-114 -256 -55 Finance Expenses -34 -34 0

490 1.173 -58 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 232 440 -47

392 932 -58 Net Profit 184 347 -47

Page 21: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Assets

Million USD30 Sept.

2009End 2008 Difference

%

Difference

Current Assets 4.307 2.923 1.384 47

Cash & C. Equivalents 1.843 970 873 90

Receivables 770 722 47 7

Inventories 1.345 836 509 61

Other Current Assets 349 394 -45 -11

Long Term Assets 2.969 2.788 180 6

Financial Assets 51 46 5 10

Goodwill 128 125 3 2

Fixed Assets 2.390 2.232 158 7

Other Long Term Assets 401 385 15 4

Total Assets 7.276 5.711 1.565 27

Page 22: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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Tüpraş Balance Sheet-Liabilities

Million USD30 Sept.

2009End 2008 Difference % Difference

Short Term Liabilities 4.163 2.720 1.443 53

Financial Loans 905 852 53 6

Payables 2.148 1.048 1.100 105

Provisions 87 53 34 64

Other ST Liabilities 1.023 768 256 33

Long Term Liabilities 689 639 50 8

Financial Loans 321 333 -12 -4

Payables & Provisions 0 1 -1 -100

Tax Payable 132 104 28 27

Other LT Liabilities 237 201 36 18

Equity 2.395 2.326 69 3

Minority Interests 28 25 3 11

Total Liabilities 7.276 5.711 1.565 27

Page 23: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

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3rd Quarter Operating Profit and Inventory Effect

23

Million $

Crude processed

(000barrel /day) Operating Profit İnventory Loss

Operating Profit (w/o

İnventory loss )

EBIT Before

Inventory Loss ($/v)

3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08 3Q09 3Q08

Tüpraş 368 550 207 390 24 -124 183 514 5.47 7.79

Neste oil 224 224 162 66 102 -233 60 299 2.94 3.24

OMV 415 430 52 -95 77 -110 -26 15 -0.68 -2.42

Valero 2,379 2,587 -579 1,840 0 0 -579 1,840 -2.67 7.82

ConocoPhilips 2,382 2,318 99 849 0 0 99 849 0.46 4.02

Exxon mobil 5,352 5,354 325 3,013 0 0 325 3,013 0.67 6.18

Eni 737 732 49 644 206 302 -157 341 -2.35 9.67

SHELL 2,997 3,273 1,543 -123 251 -2,543 1,292 2,420 4.74 -0.41

BP 2,329 2,185 1,433 -823 517 -2,795 916 1,972 4.32 -4.14

Total 2,142 2,393 231 170 212 -1,572 19 1,742 0.10 0.78

SARAS 273 308 -145 30 33 -90 -178 120 -7.16 1.07

Chevron 1,864 1,898 194 1,831 0 0 194 1,831 1.14 10.60

Petroplus 527 640 -256 -471 10 -645 -266 174 -5.55 -8.08

Page 24: Tupras 3 Q 2009 Tel Con

24

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.