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Investor Presentation October 2009

Tupras October 2009

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Page 1: Tupras October 2009

Investor Presentation

October 2009

Page 2: Tupras October 2009

2

Summary of Current Environment & Performance

•Local demand down in line with expectations•Rural Diesel demand worst hit – highest correlation with GDP

Demand

•Optimisation in production•Continued use of semi-products•Opportunity Crudes

Crude Processed

•Lower Volumes•Optimising Upgrade Units•White Product Yield Increase

Production

•Focused on domestic market•Decrease in Exports

Sales

•Benchmark margins:•Oversupply & reduced demand, •Poor Crude Differentials•Big Tüpraş Margin premium• better yields•lower exports

Margins

•Increased Size of units•Final negotiations with short listed constructors •Financial packages under discussion

Coker Update

Page 3: Tupras October 2009

3

Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

Page 4: Tupras October 2009

4

Refining Sector Outlook

Low

Capacit

y Utilisation

• 1st Half• U

SA

• - 2.5% on 2008

• -4.7% on 2007

Investment

Slowdow

n

•Saras•No major investment in 2010

•BP•Will not build refinery in Canada

•Valero•$1.7 billion investment postponed

Divestments

• Shell, UK, Germany, Canada, N Zealand,

• Valero, Aruba

• Ineos: Grange-mouth

• ENI, Livorno

Potential Clos

ures

• Petroplus, Teeside

• Shell, Montreal

• Nippon Oil,

• Chevron, Hawaii

Page 5: Tupras October 2009

5

Crude Prices & Exchange Rate

Jan 0

8

Jan 0

8

Feb 0

8

Mar

08

Mar

08

Apr 08

May

08

May

08

Jun 0

8

Jun 0

8

Jul 0

8

Aug 08

Aug 08

Sep 0

8

Oct

08

Oct

08

Nov 08

Dec 0

8

Dec 0

8

Jan 0

9

Feb 0

9

Feb 0

9

Mar

09

Apr 09

Apr 09

May

09

Jun 0

9

Jun 0

9

Jul 0

9

Aug 09

Aug 09

Sep 0

90

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

92.0 95.0103.7 109.0

122.7132.4 133.2

113.198.1

71.9

52.539.8 43.6 43.1 46.5 50.3

57.568.6 64.6

72.8 67.6

Crude Prices $ /bbl

Daily Monthly

1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9

1.17 1.201.25

1.301.25 1.24 1.21 1.18

1.24

1.48

1.601.54

1.601.66

1.71

1.601.56 1.55

1.521.49 1.49

Turkish Lira / Dollar Daily Monthly

Page 6: Tupras October 2009

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Product Ratios

Jan

Jan

Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr

May Ju

nJu

n Jul

JulAug Sep

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50 Gasoline200720082009

Margin weakness is fundamentally driven by middle distillates.

Gasoline ratios have been weak but above last year’s terrible lows.

Fuel oil prices have been strong. Lack of heavy crudes means lower

production. Has led to higher utilisation of

hydroskimming refineries.

Jan

Jan

Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr

May Ju

nJu

n Jul

JulAug Sep

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60 Diesel200720082009

Jan

Jan

Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr

May Ju

nJu

n Jul

JulAug Sep

0.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00

Fuel Oil2007 2008 2009

Page 7: Tupras October 2009

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Turkish Sector Outlook

Diesel• Decline in

demand from road transportation

• Dieselisation continues – ULSD demand is growing

Jet• Global emand

to be hit by reduction in discretionary flying

• Turkish Airlines passenger numbers up, jet sales at record levels

Gasoline• Other factors

more important than economy

• LPG substitution continues more slowly

Fuel Oil• Trailing price

of natural gas boosted sales in first quarter, but is depressing sales currently

Page 8: Tupras October 2009

8

Turkish Consumption 000*M3 (January – July)

  2008 2009  

Gasoline 1,553 1,541 -0.7%

High Octane Gasoline 185 172 -7.1%

Total Gasoline 1,738 1,713 -1.4%

Rural Diesel 7,621 6,926 -9.1%

10 ppm Diesel 1,909 2,198 15.1%

Total Diesel 9,530 9,124 -4.3%

Home Heating Oil (Ton) 226 193 -14.8%

High Sulphur Fuel Oil (Ton) 1,349 1,185 -12.2%

Black Products 1,575 1,378 -12.5%

Page 9: Tupras October 2009

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Turkish Monthly Diesel Consumption

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.0

200,000.0

400,000.0

600,000.0

800,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,200,000.0

1,400,000.0

1,600,000.0

1,800,000.0

2007 2008 2009

Page 10: Tupras October 2009

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93 95 '00 '08 '15 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet Gas Oil / Diesel

Fuel Oil Asphalt Others

~3% Decline in total white product consumption expected in 2009

10

Turkish Oil Products Demand Projection (Million Ton)

Page 11: Tupras October 2009

11

Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)

LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2.5

0.8

-4.9

1.7

-2.5

1.3

-5.8

2.7

-2.7

2.3

-6.7

1.5

2006 2007 2008

(Million Ton)

(Export)

(Import)

11

Page 12: Tupras October 2009

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Vehicle Parc Comparison (per 1000 People)

Passenger Cars, 2006

USA

Canad

a

Japa

nEU15

Russia

S.Kor

ea

Turke

y

China

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

776

561 540508

245 237

8826

Turkey By Vehicle Type

2007 2008

P. Cars 92 95

Motorcycles 28 31

LGV 27 29

Tractors 19 19

Truck 10 10

Minibus 5 5

Bus/Coach 3 3

Special Purpose

1 0

Total 184 192

Page 13: Tupras October 2009

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Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

13

Page 14: Tupras October 2009

14

TÜPRAŞ Assets

Baku

Ceyhan

Black Sea

Marmara

Mersin

Ankara

İstanbul

Kırıkkale5.0 mtNC: 6.32

Batman1,1 mtNC:1.83

Kirkuk

Shipping

Ditaş79.98% Share165 kDWT Crude Tanker10.5 kDWT, 2 New Product Tankers

Retailin

g

Opet40% Share1,340 Retail Sites1,161 kM3 StorageTrading, Lubricants & Bunkering activities

İzmit11.0 mtNC: 7.78

İzmir 11.0 mt NC: 7.66

Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million TonsCurrent Nelson Complexity(NC): 7.25

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Page 15: Tupras October 2009

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Opet Summary

3rd Largest Petrol RetailerStations: Opet: 781, Sunpet: 557

LargeTerminal Capacity1,161,000m3

Trading Business with offices in London & Singapore

Recent Developments Turkish Airlines JV

• Opet is forming a JV with THY to sell jet fuel

Marmara Terminal 3rd Phase Opens• Capacity will be rented out

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 - 1H

8

10

12

14

16

18

11.5

13.5

14.9

16.517.0

12.8

14.615.2

16.1 16.5

% Market Share Development

GasolineDiesel

Page 16: Tupras October 2009

16

36.5

65.6

249.1

784

43.7

Koç Energy Group Storage Capacities

Aygaz

Opet

Tüpraş

Unmatched

Logistics Strength1,161,000 M3150,000 M3 5,100,000 M3 100% Coverage

of Turkey

16

(1000 M3)

Page 17: Tupras October 2009

17

2006 2007 20080.0

0.4 0.4

2006 2007 2008

0.5 0.91.7

2006 2007 2008

0.10.5

1.1

2007 2008 2009P

2.1 2.1 2.1

Russia

Kazakhstan

Iran

S. Arabia

Italy

Libya

Domestic

Azerbaijan

2006 2007 2008

4.5

0.1

2006 2007 2008

8.9 8.97.5

2006 2007 2008

3.5 3.3 3.4

2006 2007 2008

0.1 0.1

17

Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (million ton)

%30

%48

2006 2007 2008

6.7

9.1

6.6

2007 2008

0.1

UK

2006 2007 20080.0

0.20.5

IraqSyria

Page 18: Tupras October 2009

08/1Q 09/1Q 08/2Q 09/2Q0

5

10

15

7.529.31 9.32 8.35

0.310.01

3.33

0.94

7.8322828806451

9.31876243563683

12.6503736098023 9.295823

76576635

Inventory Effect

Tüpraş Margin w/o crude inventory Crude Inventory Effect Total

Refining Margins

2Q 2006 2Q 2007 2Q 2008 2Q 20090.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

7.0 7.2 6.3

1.4

6.79.2

12.7

9.3

Tupras vs Med

Med Complex Margin Tupras Margin

18

Page 19: Tupras October 2009

19

Tüpraş Margin vs Med. Complex

More Heavy Crude processed

• 2nd Quarter Crude API 32.23• 1st Quarter Crude API 33.21

Completed Maintenance

• Higher Capacity Utilisation in 2nd Quarter, but still below normal

Better Product Yields• White Product yield increased from 70.7% in Q1 to 75.5% in Q2• Using more semi products, ASRF Oil, HVGO• Better utilisation of conversion units• More ULS Diesel & Gasoline• More Asphalt less fuel oilLower Exports

• Small surpluses of Gasoline & Fuel Oil

Inventory

• Positive Inventory effect in Q2 ‘09

Page 20: Tupras October 2009

20

Production Volumes

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

5.51

6.22

6.18

6.07

5.15

6.25

6.47

4.85

3.29

4.19

Quarterly Volumes (Million Tons)

2009 2008 2007

Page 21: Tupras October 2009

21

23.6%

43.0%

6.9%

26.5%

Gasoline22.7%

Naphtha0.8%

Jet11.8%

1000 ppm Gas Oil17.0%

ULSD14.1%

Other3.1%

LPG3.9%

Fuel Oil16.7%

Asphalt9.8%

OtherWhite

BlackProducts

21.6%

40.5%

6.2%

31.8%

Gasoline18.9%

Naphtha2.7%

Jet12.7%

1000 ppm Gas Oil17.3%

ULSD10.5%

Other2.6%

LPG3.5%

Fuel Oil25.2%

Asphalt6.6%

1st Half Products Yields

Middle Distillate

LightDistillate

BlackProducts

White Product 72.5%Production : 7.5 mn ton

2008 2009

Other White

White Product 67.7 %Production : 11.4 mn ton

LightDistillate

MiddleDistillate

Page 22: Tupras October 2009

22

Domestic Sales, Ton*000

1st H 2008

1st H 2009 Product 2007 2008

468 411 (57) LPG 949 942 (8) 285 83 (202) Naphtha 771 532 (239)

899 920 21 Gasoline 1,897 1,969 73 1,109 1,212 103 Jet Fuel 2,201 2,307 106

3,056 2,426 (630) Diesel 6,637 6,144 (493) 960 1,068 108 Diesel 50/10 ppm 1,725 2,134 409

4,817 4,315 (502) Middle Distillate 10,563 10,585 21 1,589 1,605 16 Fuel Oil 2,954 3,089 135

688 680 (8) Asphalt 2,291 2,260 (31) 286 234 (52) Other 511 469 (42)

9,339 8,639 (700) Total 19,937 19,845 (92)

Page 23: Tupras October 2009

23

Full Year (Million Tons)

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.02.6

1.1

2.3

0.2

2.2

0.9

2.7

0.6

20072008

1st Half (KTons)

Gasoline Middle Dist.

Fuel Oil Other0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,193

580

1,486

73

823

36

370

12

20082009

Export Volumes

Page 24: Tupras October 2009

24

1st Half Trading Activities

• Finished Products– Gasoil imports up 4%– LPG & Jet imported to make up

shortfall

HVGO ASR F.Oil0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

109,121

526,104

Intermediate Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

LPG Diesel LSFO F.Oil Jet Other0

200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,000

12,106

1,231,036

235,85188,370

1,285,023

311,871

29,755

317,073

90,456

Product Imports, Ton*000

2008 2009

• Intermediates– HVGO & ASRFO were imported

to keep the hydrocrackers running full capacity.

Page 25: Tupras October 2009

25

Total Sales By Customers- 6 Months 2009

Petrol

Retailer

s62.3%

LPG

Dist.

4.2%

Petkim0.8%

Export12.6%

Others9.3%

Asphalt6.9%

Military4.0%

Sales by Customer Group

POAŞ35.7%

Shell18.1%

OPET16.8%

BP10.0%

Others (45)19.4%

Sales to Petrol Retailers

Total Sales : 9,88 million ton First 4 Distributors’ Share 79.3 %

Page 26: Tupras October 2009

26

Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

26

Page 27: Tupras October 2009

27

Investments

50

1989-2005 2006-2007 2008 2006-2013-200

400

1,000

1,600

2,200

2,800

3,400

1,600

45292

544

350

176303

2,6561,950

628395

3,200

Master PlanNew & OtherSeries3

Million USD

27

Gasoline Improvement Storage Capacity +1.1mn ton Residium Upgrading OEP & others

Page 28: Tupras October 2009

28

Company Strategy

Co

mmercial

•Increased Product Trade•44% Increase in 1st H 2009

•Sea and Rail Logistics•2 New Product Tankers•Wagon loading / unloading

Inve

stme

nt

•Euro V Completed•Terminal Capacity•Reduce Black Product

Op

erational

•Energy Efficiency•Losses•Integrity and Reliability•Health , Safety and Environment•2007-2008 Saving $162 Million

Page 29: Tupras October 2009

29

Changes

• Scale• Capacity of project increased by

30%• Will utilise residuals from other

refineries• Timing

• Completion expected end of 2013• Financing more by Export Credit

Agency• Budget

• $1.5-$2 Billion, • Costs may be 30% less

The Fundamentals

• Fuel Oil / Diesel Spreads• $200 spreads are temporary• Fuel oil prices will decrease with

more heavy crude• Diesel / Jet prices will improve

with recovery• LSFO req. for Bunkering

• Product Mix• Turkey will still be very short of

diesel and long on fuel oil

Coker Update

Page 30: Tupras October 2009

30

RUP Product Yields

Raw Materials• Atm. Dip: 1,008• Fuel Oil: 2,603• Asphalt: 646

• Total Black: 4,237• MTBE: 138

• Natural Gas: 464

Finished Products• LPG: 203

• Gasoline: 772• Diesel: 2,548

• Total White: 3,523• Petrocoke: 807• Sulphur: 127• Total: 4,457

Page 31: Tupras October 2009

31

Financial Summary

Page 32: Tupras October 2009

32

Petroleum Industry

Company Overview

Investments & Environment

Key Financials

32

Page 33: Tupras October 2009

33

Financial Highlights (million $)

2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 20090

500

1000

1500

769 712

1081 1116

868

328

EBITDA

2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 20090

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

508575

998

333

586

208

Net Income

2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 2009-500-400-300-200-100

0100200300

-421

259

-229

215

-19

-440

Net Debt/(Cash)

2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 20090

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.220.25

0.34

0.12

0.36

0.2

Return on Average Equity Ratio

Page 34: Tupras October 2009

34

Profitability Indicators – January-June

  2008 2009Difference

Amount (%)

Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 109.1 51.6 -57.5 -52.7

Brent vs Tüpraş Crude Cost, ($/bbl) 6.12 1.72 -4.4

Processed Crude API 32.3 32.7 0.4

White Product Yield, (%) 67.71 72.52 4.81

 

Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 4.99 2.42 -2.57 -51.5

Tüpraş Margin,($/bbl) 10.45 9.31 -1.14 -10.9

Operating Profit, (mn. $) 702 200 -502 -72

EBITDA (mn. $) 755 249 -506 -67

*EBITDA (mn. $) CCS 447 192 -255 -57

**Opet Operating Profit (mn. $) 103 70 -33 -32

**Opet EBITDA (mn. $) 114 79 -35 -31

*CCS – Current Cost of Sales, ** 40% representing Tüpraş’s share

Page 35: Tupras October 2009

35

Income Statement

6M 6M % Diff. Million USD 2008 2007 % Diff.

2009 2008

5,032 12,308 -59 Net Sales 23,424 17,318 35

443 1,041 -57 Gross Profit 1,463 1,390 5

-189 - 255 -26 Operating Expenses -515 -413 25

15 19 -21 Income/Loss from other operations 41 11 273

270 805 -66 Operating Profit 989 988 0

68 150 -55 Financial Income 299 403 -26

- 80 - 222 -64 Finance Expenses -864 -152 468

258 733 -65 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 423 1,240 -66

208 585 -64 Net Profit After Minorities 333 998 -67

Page 36: Tupras October 2009

36

Consolidated Assets

Consolidated Liabilities

LT Loans: 335

ST Loans: 282

Payables: 1,840

Stock : 1,309

Receivables:48

Cash: 952

FX Risk Exposure (30 June 2009 )

-148

Million $

Page 37: Tupras October 2009

37

Ratings & Corporate Governance

Fitch Rating Comparison

FOREIGN CURRENCY LOCAL CURRENCY

Long-term Long-term National

SOVEREIGN BB- (Stab) BB (Stab)  -

TÜPRAŞ BB (Stab) BBB-(Stab) AAA (tur) (Stab)

Vestel B (Stab) B (Stab)  -

Hürriyet BB- (Neg) BB- (Neg) AA- (tur) (Neg)

Turkcell BB (Stab) BBB-(Stab)  -

Corporate Governance Rating

Board

Stakeholders

Transparency

Shareholders

Overall

0% 20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

67.31

96.02

89.76

83.06

83.41

Rating by Saha Ratings

37

Page 38: Tupras October 2009

38

Thank you…

The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly updated information of interest to investors.

www.tupras.com.tr

38

Page 39: Tupras October 2009

39

Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

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