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latest Tupras IR Presentation
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Investor Presentation
October 2009
2
Summary of Current Environment & Performance
•Local demand down in line with expectations•Rural Diesel demand worst hit – highest correlation with GDP
Demand
•Optimisation in production•Continued use of semi-products•Opportunity Crudes
Crude Processed
•Lower Volumes•Optimising Upgrade Units•White Product Yield Increase
Production
•Focused on domestic market•Decrease in Exports
Sales
•Benchmark margins:•Oversupply & reduced demand, •Poor Crude Differentials•Big Tüpraş Margin premium• better yields•lower exports
Margins
•Increased Size of units•Final negotiations with short listed constructors •Financial packages under discussion
Coker Update
3
Petroleum Industry
Company Overview
Investments & Environment
Key Financials
4
Refining Sector Outlook
Low
Capacit
y Utilisation
• 1st Half• U
SA
• - 2.5% on 2008
• -4.7% on 2007
Investment
Slowdow
n
•Saras•No major investment in 2010
•BP•Will not build refinery in Canada
•Valero•$1.7 billion investment postponed
Divestments
• Shell, UK, Germany, Canada, N Zealand,
• Valero, Aruba
• Ineos: Grange-mouth
• ENI, Livorno
Potential Clos
ures
• Petroplus, Teeside
• Shell, Montreal
• Nippon Oil,
• Chevron, Hawaii
5
Crude Prices & Exchange Rate
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
8
Feb 0
8
Mar
08
Mar
08
Apr 08
May
08
May
08
Jun 0
8
Jun 0
8
Jul 0
8
Aug 08
Aug 08
Sep 0
8
Oct
08
Oct
08
Nov 08
Dec 0
8
Dec 0
8
Jan 0
9
Feb 0
9
Feb 0
9
Mar
09
Apr 09
Apr 09
May
09
Jun 0
9
Jun 0
9
Jul 0
9
Aug 09
Aug 09
Sep 0
90
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
92.0 95.0103.7 109.0
122.7132.4 133.2
113.198.1
71.9
52.539.8 43.6 43.1 46.5 50.3
57.568.6 64.6
72.8 67.6
Crude Prices $ /bbl
Daily Monthly
1.01.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9
1.17 1.201.25
1.301.25 1.24 1.21 1.18
1.24
1.48
1.601.54
1.601.66
1.71
1.601.56 1.55
1.521.49 1.49
Turkish Lira / Dollar Daily Monthly
6
Product Ratios
Jan
Jan
Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr
May Ju
nJu
n Jul
JulAug Sep
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50 Gasoline200720082009
Margin weakness is fundamentally driven by middle distillates.
Gasoline ratios have been weak but above last year’s terrible lows.
Fuel oil prices have been strong. Lack of heavy crudes means lower
production. Has led to higher utilisation of
hydroskimming refineries.
Jan
Jan
Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr
May Ju
nJu
n Jul
JulAug Sep
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60 Diesel200720082009
Jan
Jan
Feb Feb Mar Apr Apr
May Ju
nJu
n Jul
JulAug Sep
0.500.550.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00
Fuel Oil2007 2008 2009
7
Turkish Sector Outlook
Diesel• Decline in
demand from road transportation
• Dieselisation continues – ULSD demand is growing
Jet• Global emand
to be hit by reduction in discretionary flying
• Turkish Airlines passenger numbers up, jet sales at record levels
Gasoline• Other factors
more important than economy
• LPG substitution continues more slowly
Fuel Oil• Trailing price
of natural gas boosted sales in first quarter, but is depressing sales currently
8
Turkish Consumption 000*M3 (January – July)
2008 2009
Gasoline 1,553 1,541 -0.7%
High Octane Gasoline 185 172 -7.1%
Total Gasoline 1,738 1,713 -1.4%
Rural Diesel 7,621 6,926 -9.1%
10 ppm Diesel 1,909 2,198 15.1%
Total Diesel 9,530 9,124 -4.3%
Home Heating Oil (Ton) 226 193 -14.8%
High Sulphur Fuel Oil (Ton) 1,349 1,185 -12.2%
Black Products 1,575 1,378 -12.5%
9
Turkish Monthly Diesel Consumption
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0.0
200,000.0
400,000.0
600,000.0
800,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,200,000.0
1,400,000.0
1,600,000.0
1,800,000.0
2007 2008 2009
10
93 95 '00 '08 '15 2020
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet Gas Oil / Diesel
Fuel Oil Asphalt Others
~3% Decline in total white product consumption expected in 2009
10
Turkish Oil Products Demand Projection (Million Ton)
11
Turkey’s Import / Export Balance (Net)
LPG Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2.5
0.8
-4.9
1.7
-2.5
1.3
-5.8
2.7
-2.7
2.3
-6.7
1.5
2006 2007 2008
(Million Ton)
(Export)
(Import)
11
12
Vehicle Parc Comparison (per 1000 People)
Passenger Cars, 2006
USA
Canad
a
Japa
nEU15
Russia
S.Kor
ea
Turke
y
China
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
776
561 540508
245 237
8826
Turkey By Vehicle Type
2007 2008
P. Cars 92 95
Motorcycles 28 31
LGV 27 29
Tractors 19 19
Truck 10 10
Minibus 5 5
Bus/Coach 3 3
Special Purpose
1 0
Total 184 192
13
Petroleum Industry
Company Overview
Investments & Environment
Key Financials
13
14
TÜPRAŞ Assets
Baku
Ceyhan
Black Sea
Marmara
Mersin
Ankara
İstanbul
Kırıkkale5.0 mtNC: 6.32
Batman1,1 mtNC:1.83
Kirkuk
Shipping
Ditaş79.98% Share165 kDWT Crude Tanker10.5 kDWT, 2 New Product Tankers
Retailin
g
Opet40% Share1,340 Retail Sites1,161 kM3 StorageTrading, Lubricants & Bunkering activities
İzmit11.0 mtNC: 7.78
İzmir 11.0 mt NC: 7.66
Total Refining Capacity: 28.1 Million TonsCurrent Nelson Complexity(NC): 7.25
14
15
Opet Summary
3rd Largest Petrol RetailerStations: Opet: 781, Sunpet: 557
LargeTerminal Capacity1,161,000m3
Trading Business with offices in London & Singapore
Recent Developments Turkish Airlines JV
• Opet is forming a JV with THY to sell jet fuel
Marmara Terminal 3rd Phase Opens• Capacity will be rented out
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 - 1H
8
10
12
14
16
18
11.5
13.5
14.9
16.517.0
12.8
14.615.2
16.1 16.5
% Market Share Development
GasolineDiesel
16
36.5
65.6
249.1
784
43.7
Koç Energy Group Storage Capacities
Aygaz
Opet
Tüpraş
Unmatched
Logistics Strength1,161,000 M3150,000 M3 5,100,000 M3 100% Coverage
of Turkey
16
(1000 M3)
17
2006 2007 20080.0
0.4 0.4
2006 2007 2008
0.5 0.91.7
2006 2007 2008
0.10.5
1.1
2007 2008 2009P
2.1 2.1 2.1
Russia
Kazakhstan
Iran
S. Arabia
Italy
Libya
Domestic
Azerbaijan
2006 2007 2008
4.5
0.1
2006 2007 2008
8.9 8.97.5
2006 2007 2008
3.5 3.3 3.4
2006 2007 2008
0.1 0.1
17
Crude Suppliers of TÜPRAŞ (million ton)
%30
%48
2006 2007 2008
6.7
9.1
6.6
2007 2008
0.1
UK
2006 2007 20080.0
0.20.5
IraqSyria
08/1Q 09/1Q 08/2Q 09/2Q0
5
10
15
7.529.31 9.32 8.35
0.310.01
3.33
0.94
7.8322828806451
9.31876243563683
12.6503736098023 9.295823
76576635
Inventory Effect
Tüpraş Margin w/o crude inventory Crude Inventory Effect Total
Refining Margins
2Q 2006 2Q 2007 2Q 2008 2Q 20090.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
7.0 7.2 6.3
1.4
6.79.2
12.7
9.3
Tupras vs Med
Med Complex Margin Tupras Margin
18
19
Tüpraş Margin vs Med. Complex
More Heavy Crude processed
• 2nd Quarter Crude API 32.23• 1st Quarter Crude API 33.21
Completed Maintenance
• Higher Capacity Utilisation in 2nd Quarter, but still below normal
Better Product Yields• White Product yield increased from 70.7% in Q1 to 75.5% in Q2• Using more semi products, ASRF Oil, HVGO• Better utilisation of conversion units• More ULS Diesel & Gasoline• More Asphalt less fuel oilLower Exports
• Small surpluses of Gasoline & Fuel Oil
Inventory
• Positive Inventory effect in Q2 ‘09
20
Production Volumes
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5.51
6.22
6.18
6.07
5.15
6.25
6.47
4.85
3.29
4.19
Quarterly Volumes (Million Tons)
2009 2008 2007
21
23.6%
43.0%
6.9%
26.5%
Gasoline22.7%
Naphtha0.8%
Jet11.8%
1000 ppm Gas Oil17.0%
ULSD14.1%
Other3.1%
LPG3.9%
Fuel Oil16.7%
Asphalt9.8%
OtherWhite
BlackProducts
21.6%
40.5%
6.2%
31.8%
Gasoline18.9%
Naphtha2.7%
Jet12.7%
1000 ppm Gas Oil17.3%
ULSD10.5%
Other2.6%
LPG3.5%
Fuel Oil25.2%
Asphalt6.6%
1st Half Products Yields
Middle Distillate
LightDistillate
BlackProducts
White Product 72.5%Production : 7.5 mn ton
2008 2009
Other White
White Product 67.7 %Production : 11.4 mn ton
LightDistillate
MiddleDistillate
22
Domestic Sales, Ton*000
1st H 2008
1st H 2009 Product 2007 2008
468 411 (57) LPG 949 942 (8) 285 83 (202) Naphtha 771 532 (239)
899 920 21 Gasoline 1,897 1,969 73 1,109 1,212 103 Jet Fuel 2,201 2,307 106
3,056 2,426 (630) Diesel 6,637 6,144 (493) 960 1,068 108 Diesel 50/10 ppm 1,725 2,134 409
4,817 4,315 (502) Middle Distillate 10,563 10,585 21 1,589 1,605 16 Fuel Oil 2,954 3,089 135
688 680 (8) Asphalt 2,291 2,260 (31) 286 234 (52) Other 511 469 (42)
9,339 8,639 (700) Total 19,937 19,845 (92)
23
Full Year (Million Tons)
Gasoline Middle Dist.
Fuel Oil Other0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.02.6
1.1
2.3
0.2
2.2
0.9
2.7
0.6
20072008
1st Half (KTons)
Gasoline Middle Dist.
Fuel Oil Other0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,193
580
1,486
73
823
36
370
12
20082009
Export Volumes
24
1st Half Trading Activities
• Finished Products– Gasoil imports up 4%– LPG & Jet imported to make up
shortfall
HVGO ASR F.Oil0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
109,121
526,104
Intermediate Imports, Ton*000
2008 2009
LPG Diesel LSFO F.Oil Jet Other0
200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,000
12,106
1,231,036
235,85188,370
1,285,023
311,871
29,755
317,073
90,456
Product Imports, Ton*000
2008 2009
• Intermediates– HVGO & ASRFO were imported
to keep the hydrocrackers running full capacity.
25
Total Sales By Customers- 6 Months 2009
Petrol
Retailer
s62.3%
LPG
Dist.
4.2%
Petkim0.8%
Export12.6%
Others9.3%
Asphalt6.9%
Military4.0%
Sales by Customer Group
POAŞ35.7%
Shell18.1%
OPET16.8%
BP10.0%
Others (45)19.4%
Sales to Petrol Retailers
Total Sales : 9,88 million ton First 4 Distributors’ Share 79.3 %
26
Petroleum Industry
Company Overview
Investments & Environment
Key Financials
26
27
Investments
50
1989-2005 2006-2007 2008 2006-2013-200
400
1,000
1,600
2,200
2,800
3,400
1,600
45292
544
350
176303
2,6561,950
628395
3,200
Master PlanNew & OtherSeries3
Million USD
27
Gasoline Improvement Storage Capacity +1.1mn ton Residium Upgrading OEP & others
28
Company Strategy
Co
mmercial
•Increased Product Trade•44% Increase in 1st H 2009
•Sea and Rail Logistics•2 New Product Tankers•Wagon loading / unloading
Inve
stme
nt
•Euro V Completed•Terminal Capacity•Reduce Black Product
Op
erational
•Energy Efficiency•Losses•Integrity and Reliability•Health , Safety and Environment•2007-2008 Saving $162 Million
29
Changes
• Scale• Capacity of project increased by
30%• Will utilise residuals from other
refineries• Timing
• Completion expected end of 2013• Financing more by Export Credit
Agency• Budget
• $1.5-$2 Billion, • Costs may be 30% less
The Fundamentals
• Fuel Oil / Diesel Spreads• $200 spreads are temporary• Fuel oil prices will decrease with
more heavy crude• Diesel / Jet prices will improve
with recovery• LSFO req. for Bunkering
• Product Mix• Turkey will still be very short of
diesel and long on fuel oil
Coker Update
30
RUP Product Yields
Raw Materials• Atm. Dip: 1,008• Fuel Oil: 2,603• Asphalt: 646
• Total Black: 4,237• MTBE: 138
• Natural Gas: 464
Finished Products• LPG: 203
• Gasoline: 772• Diesel: 2,548
• Total White: 3,523• Petrocoke: 807• Sulphur: 127• Total: 4,457
31
Financial Summary
32
Petroleum Industry
Company Overview
Investments & Environment
Key Financials
32
33
Financial Highlights (million $)
2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 20090
500
1000
1500
769 712
1081 1116
868
328
EBITDA
2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 20090
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
508575
998
333
586
208
Net Income
2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 2009-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300
-421
259
-229
215
-19
-440
Net Debt/(Cash)
2005 2006 2007 2008 1H 2008 1H 20090
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.220.25
0.34
0.12
0.36
0.2
Return on Average Equity Ratio
34
Profitability Indicators – January-June
2008 2009Difference
Amount (%)
Dtd.Brent Price, ($/bbl) 109.1 51.6 -57.5 -52.7
Brent vs Tüpraş Crude Cost, ($/bbl) 6.12 1.72 -4.4
Processed Crude API 32.3 32.7 0.4
White Product Yield, (%) 67.71 72.52 4.81
Med. Complex Margin,($/bbl) 4.99 2.42 -2.57 -51.5
Tüpraş Margin,($/bbl) 10.45 9.31 -1.14 -10.9
Operating Profit, (mn. $) 702 200 -502 -72
EBITDA (mn. $) 755 249 -506 -67
*EBITDA (mn. $) CCS 447 192 -255 -57
**Opet Operating Profit (mn. $) 103 70 -33 -32
**Opet EBITDA (mn. $) 114 79 -35 -31
*CCS – Current Cost of Sales, ** 40% representing Tüpraş’s share
35
Income Statement
6M 6M % Diff. Million USD 2008 2007 % Diff.
2009 2008
5,032 12,308 -59 Net Sales 23,424 17,318 35
443 1,041 -57 Gross Profit 1,463 1,390 5
-189 - 255 -26 Operating Expenses -515 -413 25
15 19 -21 Income/Loss from other operations 41 11 273
270 805 -66 Operating Profit 989 988 0
68 150 -55 Financial Income 299 403 -26
- 80 - 222 -64 Finance Expenses -864 -152 468
258 733 -65 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 423 1,240 -66
208 585 -64 Net Profit After Minorities 333 998 -67
36
Consolidated Assets
Consolidated Liabilities
LT Loans: 335
ST Loans: 282
Payables: 1,840
Stock : 1,309
Receivables:48
Cash: 952
FX Risk Exposure (30 June 2009 )
-148
Million $
37
Ratings & Corporate Governance
Fitch Rating Comparison
FOREIGN CURRENCY LOCAL CURRENCY
Long-term Long-term National
SOVEREIGN BB- (Stab) BB (Stab) -
TÜPRAŞ BB (Stab) BBB-(Stab) AAA (tur) (Stab)
Vestel B (Stab) B (Stab) -
Hürriyet BB- (Neg) BB- (Neg) AA- (tur) (Neg)
Turkcell BB (Stab) BBB-(Stab) -
Corporate Governance Rating
Board
Stakeholders
Transparency
Shareholders
Overall
0% 20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
67.31
96.02
89.76
83.06
83.41
Rating by Saha Ratings
37
38
Thank you…
The Investor Relations section of our company website has a wealth of constantly updated information of interest to investors.
www.tupras.com.tr
38
39
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
39