Upload
500-startups
View
20
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
"SaaS Money Metrics: Why VCs Should Focus More on Retention Than Growth"
Citation preview
SaaS Money Metrics: Why VCs Should Focus More on Retention Than Growth
June 2014
2
SaaS Money Metrics
1. About IVP
2. SaaS Market Overview
3. Measuring SaaS Efficiency
4. Retention is King
3
IVP History
4
IVP Summary
Current Fund: IVP XIV, a $1 billion later-stage venture capital fund
Target Sectors: Tech only (Consumer and Enterprise)
Investment Focus: Growth companies, generally with over $10 million in revenue
Geography: Primarily United States
Team: 6 General Partners with over 100 years of combined experience
Portfolio: Over 300 companies, 99 of which have gone public
5
IVP SaaS Investments
6
SaaS Money Metrics
1. About IVP
2. SaaS Market Overview
3. Measuring SaaS Efficiency
4. Retention is King
7
The World Has Changed
44% Decline
8
Growth No Longer Rewarded as Highly
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
9
Red is the New Black: LTM EBITDA %: 2012-2014 Software IPOs
(110.0%)
(90.0%)
(70.0%)
(50.0%)
(30.0%)
(10.0%)
10.0%
30.0%
10
SaaS Money Metrics
1. About IVP
2. SaaS Market Overview
3. Measuring SaaS Efficiency
4. Retention is King
11
ThrustSSC
760 MPH.04 MPG
12
Chevy Spark EV
89 MPH128 MPG
13
Two Measures of SaaS Efficiency
1. Magic Number
2. LTV / CAC
14
Magic Number
Magic Number =(Q1 GP$ - Q4 GP$) *4
Q4 S&M$
A Magic Number of 1 means you break even on
your sales and marketing spend after 1 year
15
Magic Number Example
Q4 2013 Q1 2014Revenue 22,501 25,092
Gross Profit 14,848 16,097
Operating ExpensesR&D 4,551 5,178S&M 11,404 14,287G&A 4,693 6,384
Operating Loss (5,800) (9,752)
Magic Number 0.44xTime to Breakeven 2.3 years
Magic Number = = 0.44x or 2.3 yrs to breakeven($16.1 – $14.8) *4
$11.4
16
LTV / CAC
LTV / CAC =GP$ Per Customer * Avg. Customer Life
Customer Acquisition Cost
17
LTV / CAC Example
LTV / CAC = = 7x$700 * 5
$500
• You sell your product for $1,000 per year at 70% GP
• Customers churn 20% per year (5 year average life)
• It costs $500 to acquire each customer
18
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
LTV / CAC Over Time
Magic Number
LTV / CAC
19
SaaS Efficiency Goals
1. Magic Number = Above 0.5x (Less than 2 years)
2. LTV / CAC = Above 5x
20
SaaS Money Metrics
1. About IVP
2. SaaS Market Overview
3. Measuring SaaS Efficiency
4. Retention is King
21
Retention Trumps Growth
Company A
$200K New Revenue Per Month
90% Monthly Retention
3 Years Later = $2.0M Run-Rate
Company B
$100K New Revenue Per Month
99% Monthly Retention
3 Years Later = $3.1M Run-Rate
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 360
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36
22
Retention vs. Growth
High Growth Hare Unicorn
Low Growth Sloth Tortoise
Low Retention High Retention
23
Case Study: Hare (AVG Technologies)
Source: Company filings. Analyst reports.
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
47% CAGR6% CAGR
Consumer Software Churn = 30-40% Per Year
24
Case Study: Tortoise (Concur)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
E
2015
E
28% CAGR
Customer Churn = 2% Per Year
Source: Company filings. Analyst reports.
25
Case Study: Unicorn (Workday)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
109% CAGR
Low/Negative Churn – 3 to 5 Year Contracts
Source: Company filings. Analyst reports.
26
Retention vs. Growth
High Growth Hare Unicorn
Low Growth Sloth Tortoise
Low Retention High Retention
27
Retention vs. Growth
28
Measuring Cohort Revenue
Source: David Skok. SaaS Metrics.
29
Tortoise or Hare?
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13
Revenue
Revenue
30
Cohort Revenue (Negative Churn)
Source: Model adapted from Startup Calculus (Joe Floyd)
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13
Revenue Growth by Cohort
Mar 13
Feb 13
Jan 13
Dec 12
Nov 12
Oct 12
Sep 12
Aug 12
Jul 12
Jun 12
May 12
Apr 12
Mar 12
Feb 12
Jan 12
31
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13
Revenue Growth by Cohort
Mar 13
Feb 13
Jan 13
Dec 12
Nov 12
Oct 12
Sep 12
Aug 12
Jul 12
Jun 12
May 12
Apr 12
Mar 12
Feb 12
Jan 12
Source: Model adapted from Startup Calculus (Joe Floyd)
Cohort Revenue (8% Churn)