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September 18, 2013

Q3 2013 Market Analysis Report

This report contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this report and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

• Economic Update: Slides 4-8

• Agriculture Update: Slides 9-19

• Potash Market Update: Slides 20-26

• Phosphate Market Update: Slides 27-32

• Nitrogen Market Update: Slides 33-38

Report Overview

Economic Update

Source: Oanda, PotashCorp

Series1-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%China EU Canada Malaysia Brazil India Indonesia

Percentage Change (January 1 - September 13, 2013)

Weaker Exchange Rates Benefit Major Crop Exporting Regions

World Currency Changes (versus USD)

Source: IMF

20

11

20

13

F

20

12

20

14

F

20

11

20

13

F

20

12

20

14

F

20

11

20

13

F

20

12

20

14

F

20

11

20

13

F

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%World EU US Brazil ASEAN-5 India China

Year over Year GDP Percentage Change

Uneven Economic Recovery Continues

World GDP Outlook

Note: ASEAN-5 is comprised of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

Percent

Unemployment Rate Falling and Consumer Sentiment Improving

US Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

YTD50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Durable Goods Sales

Average Monthly Sales – Billion US$

Source: US Department of Labor, US Census Bureau

0

2

4

6

8

10

1210.0

7.3

Source: US Census Bureau, Scotiabank Group

Jul-0

3

Jul-0

4

Jul-0

5

Jul-0

6

Jul-0

7

Jul-0

8

Jul-0

9

Jul-1

0

Jul-1

1

Jul-1

2

Jul-1

30

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Residential Nonresidential

Billion US$

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

F0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Million Units

Recovery in Auto Sales and Residential Construction

US Economic Indicators

Light Vehicle Sales Construction Expenditures

Agriculture Update

Source: Bloomberg

$/bushel

Wheat

$/bushel

Soybeans

$/bushel

Corn

Supportive Prices Despite Some Near-term Pressure

Crop Prices

1/1/2011

7/1/2011

1/1/2012

7/1/2012

1/1/2013

7/1/20130

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Dec. 13 Futures10-year Average

1/1/2011

7/1/2011

1/1/2012

7/1/2012

1/1/2013

7/1/20130

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18Nov. 13 Futures10-year Average

1/1/2011

7/1/2011

1/1/2012

7/1/2012

1/1/2013

7/1/20130

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12Near-month Futures10-year Average

Source: India Meteorological Department

Indian Monsoon SituationStrong Monsoon Encouraging for Farmers

Percentage of Normal Monsoon Rain (June to Sept.)

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Source: USDA Crop Explorer

Challenging Weather Patterns Negatively Impacts Crop Production

China Affected By Regional Floods and Drought

Seasonal Percent of Normal Precipitation

Excess Moisture

Moisture Deficiency

Source: USDA

Million Tonnes

Rice

Million Tonnes

Wheat

Million Tonnes

Corn

Expect Significant Imports to Meet Rising Consumption

China’s Grain Imports

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

F0

2

4

6

8

10

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

F0

2

4

6

8

10

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

F0

2

4

6

8

10

2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year.

Source: Ministry of Agriculture for China

China’s Agricultural Products Import Bill

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

20

40

60

80

100

120

Billion US$

Import Bill Has Increased Rapidly Over the Past Five Years

Source: USDA

2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year.

IA ND

CO WI

KS

MN

MS

NE IL SD

TX MI

IN PA

OH

KY

NC

TN

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Percent

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

F0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

5

10

15

20

25Use Production

Billion Bushels

Yield and Acreage Uncertainty Due to Late Developing Crop

US Corn Supply/Demand and Crop Condition

US Corn Supply and Demand US Good/Excellent Corn Rating – Current versus 10-year avg.

Stocks-to-Use - Percent

Source: USDA

Production - Million Tonnes

Higher Stocks Contingent on Large South American Crops

World Soybean Production and Stocks-to-Use

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F2013F0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40South America US Other World Stocks-to-Use

Based on crop year data. For example, 2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year.

Stocks-to-Use - Percent

Expect Fertilizer Will Remain Very Affordable in 2013/14 Fertilizer Year

Fertilizer Cost Percentage of US Corn Revenue

Source: USDA, DTN, PotashCorp

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F0

5

10

15

20

25Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Total

$4.00/bushel

2014 Corn Price Scenarios

$4.75/bushel

$5.50/bushel

Percent

Source: Safras, Soybean & Corn Advisor

Jan-10Apr-1

0Jul-10

Oct-10Jan-11

Apr-11Jul-11

Oct-11Jan-12

Apr-12Jul-12

Oct-12Jan-13

Apr-13

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Soybeans Corn

Gross Margin Percentage

Returns Favor Soybean; Expect Slow Down in Corn Planting

Brazil Crop Economics

Source: USDA, CONAB, PotashCorp

Million Acres

Strong Soybean Economics Drives Expected Increase in Planted Area

Brazil Crop Area

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14F

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Soybeans Corn - Full Season Corn - Safrihna Wheat

Potash Market Update

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

Latin America

China

Middle East

Europe

North America

FSU

0 5 10 15 20

Historical Maximum Production, Million tonnes KCl

North America and FSU Are Major Potash Producing Regions

World Potash Producing Region Profile

Source: IFA, PotashCorp

IFA derives operational capability by multiplying capacity by the highest historical achievable operating rate.

2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90IFA Forecast as of May 2013 IFA Forecast as of May 2012

Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent

Significant Project Delays and Deferrals

IFA Potash Operational Capability Outlook

8 million tonnes

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp

* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total 2017F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

63.0

76.8

World PotashCorp Other North America FSU Other

Million Tonnes KCl

PotashCorp Adding Majority of New Capacity

Global Potash Operational Capability*

Source: IPNI, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

Strong Offshore Shipments During First Eight Months of 2013

North American Potash Producers’ Export Sales

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.42013 2012 5-year avg.

Source: IPNI, TFI, PotashCorp

Thousand Tonnes KCl

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.22013 5-year avg.

Million Tonnes KCl

Low Distributor Inventory and Agronomic Need is Expected to Drive Demand

North America Potash Shipments

Domestic Producer Shipments Offshore Imports

Jan MarMay Jul

Sep Nov0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1402013 5-year avg.

Source: USDA, AAPFCO, PotashCorp

Million Short Tons KCl EquivalentMillion Short Tons KCl Equivalent

Application Rates Have Not Kept Pace With Higher Crop Removal

US Potassium Application and Crop Removal

US Total Regional Application Deficit – 2010

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16Crop removal Fertilizer applied

Calculation based on commercial fertilizer application data, estimated nutrients available from manure and crop removal rates for all major crops grown in the US.

Central P

lains

Mountain

Lake States

MidwestOther

WestDelta

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

3.7

1.4

0.7 0.7 0.6 0.60.4

~ 8.0 million

st

Phosphate Market Update

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70India China Other Asia Latin America North America Other

Million Tonnes Product

Indian Demand Has a Significant Impact on the Global Market

World DAP and MAP Consumption

54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Source: FAI, Katana, PotashCorp

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr May

Jun Jul Aug

Sep

Oct Nov

Dec

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 2013 2012 2011

Cumulative, Million Tonnes Product

Government Policy and Foreign Exchange Changes Distorting the Market

India DAP Import Economics

India DAP Imports Importer Breakeven Price Sensitivity

Rupee/USD ScenariosAssuming MRP of 22,500

US$/Tonne – CFR India

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

Integrated (low) Integrated (high)

Non-integrated0

100

200

300

400

500Total cash costFreight and export tax costsFOB China

60%

11%

5%4%

4%

16%

Emerged as a Major Supplier to India But Some Producers Are High Cost

China Phosphate Market Profile

2012 DAP/MAP Exports by Destination China DAP Export Costs

India

Vietnam

Pakistan

LatinAmerica

Other

Oceania

2012 Exports – 4.8 million tonnes

US$/Tonne

Higher cost integrated producers typically have higher rock transportation costs.

11 12 13 11 12 13 11 12 13 11 12 13MAP DAP TSP SSP

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200Production Imports

Source: Potafertz, PotashCorp

Thousand Tonnes P2O5 (YTD Jan-Jul)

Increased Phosphate Supply During the First Half of 2013

Brazil Phosphate Fertilizer Domestic Supply

Source: IPNI, TFI, PotashCorp

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 2013 5-year avg.

Short-term Buying Lull Prior to the Fall Season

US DAP/MAP Shipments

Jan MarMay Jul

Sep Nov0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1602013 5-year avg.

Thousand Tonnes DAP/MAP Thousand Tonnes DAP/MAP

Offshore ImportsDomestic Producer Shipments

Nitrogen Market Update

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

201320122011

201320122011

201320122011

201320122011

0 1 2 3 4 5

FSU

Middle East

Trinidad

North Africa

Million Tonnes

Ammonia Supply Has Been Constrained in Major Exporting Regions

Ammonia Exports by Major Region

2008 2010 2012 2014F 2016F-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000Middle East and Africa Americas FSU Other China

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes

Near-term Surge in Chinese Capacity; Several Proposed Projects in Medium-term

World Urea Capacity Additions

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F0

20

40

60

80

100

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Production Capacity Operating Rate

Source: CRU, PotashCorp

Operating Rate - PercentProduct - Million Tonnes

Near-term Over Supply in Chinese Market

China Urea Supply and Demand

Natural Gas Thermal Coal (L)

Anthracite (L)

Anthracite (M)

Anthracite (S)

200

240

280

320

360Total cash cost Freight and export tax costs FOB China

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

L refers to large-scale producers, M refers to medium and S refers to small.

US$/Tonne

Wide Range of Costs Depending on Feedstock and Plant Type

Chinese Urea Export Costs

US Middle East

Russia China (Coal)

Ukraine (Port)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400Cost Range

US

Middle EastTrinidad

Russia

West. Europe (Spot)

Ukraine (Port)

West. Europe (Contract)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600Cost Range

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

Note: Cost of production estimates based on natural gas price forecast for 2013.

US$/TonneUS$/Tonne

Production Costs Remain High In Several Key Nitrogen Producing Regions

Delivered Cash Costs to the US Market

Ammonia Urea

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