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PotashCorp.com March 20, 2013 Q1 2013 Market Analysis Report

PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

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Page 1: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

PotashCorp.com

March 20, 2013

Q1 2013 Market Analysis Report

Page 2: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Page 3: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

• Agriculture and Fertilizer Market Update

• Global Potash Supply Overview

• Global Phosphate Supply Overview

• North American Nitrogen Supply Overview

Presentation Overview

Page 4: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Agriculture and Fertilizer Market Update

Page 5: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA, PotashCorp

2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year. Consumption forecast based on historical trend line growth.

Million Tonnes

Need for Historically Large Production Increase to Avoid Additional Shortfall

World Grain and Oilseed Supply/Demand

2013 Production Growth Rate Scenarios

6% (~ 3X Historical Growth Rate)

4% (~ 2X Historical Growth Rate)

Page 6: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA

2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.

Stocks – Billion BushelsUse – Billion Bushels

Supply Shortfall Has Resulted in Significant Demand Rationing

US Corn Use and Ending Stocks

Page 7: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA

Bushels/Acre

Recent Yields Have Fallen Well Below Preliminary USDA Projections

US Corn Yield

Page 8: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA

2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.

Million TonnesUse – Billion Bushels

Reduced Production and Strong Chinese Demand Expected to Keep Supply Tight

Soybean Market Situation

US S&D China Imports

Stocks-to-Use Ratio

Page 9: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA

2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.

Million TonnesMillion Tonnes

World Is Counting on a Large Production Response From South America

South American Crop Production

Soybeans Corn

Page 10: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA, Doane, Statistics Canada, Agriculture Canada, Kostal Ag, PotashCorp

Million AcresMillion Acres

Expect Large Planted Acreage of Major Fertilizer-Consuming Crops

North American Planted Acreage Forecast

US Major Crop Acreage Canadian Major Crop Acreage

Page 11: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA, Statistics Canada, AAFC, PotashCorp

Billion CDN$Billion US$

Strong Crop Prices Support a Healthy Farm Economy

North American Farm Income

US Net Cash Farm Income Canadian Net Farm Income

Page 12: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Bloomberg

Price Index (10-Year Average = 100)

Prices Remain Well Above Historical Levels

North American Crop Prices

Page 13: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: DTN, Bloomberg

Price Index (January 2011 = 100)

Fertilizer Prices Lag Behind Increases in Crop Prices

US Corn and Retail Fertilizer Prices

Page 14: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: USDA, PotashCorp

* Based on USDA application rate multiplied by percentage of acres applied

Application Rate* – lbs per AcreAverage Plant Population per Acre

Application Rates Have Not Kept Pace With Nutrient Removal

US Corn Plant Populations and Potash Use

Page 15: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Iowa State (Mallarino, 2008), PotashCorp

Soybean Return Variables

Incremental Economic Return – US$/Acre

Strong Projected Returns on Soils Testing Below the Critical Level

Incremental Economic Return to Potash Fertilization

Soil Test K (PPM)

Av. Yield Response bu/acre*

Rate lbs of

K20/acre

Retail K Price$/st

90-130 6 90 $550

<90 8 120 $550

*Based on soybean yield response data from Iowa

Soybean Price – US$/bushel

Page 16: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Fertecon, IFA, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

Significant Global Distributor Inventory Destocking Occurred in 2012

World Potash Shipments and Consumption

Distributor inventory estimated to be ~3 million tonnes lower at the end of 2012

Page 17: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: IPNI, USDOC, AAPFCO, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

Anticipate Strong Spring Demand to Meet Projected Consumption

North American Potash Market Update

Page 18: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: ANDA, PotashCorp

Cumulative Deliveries - Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent

Brazil Potash Deliveries to Final ConsumerSupportive Agriculture Fundamentals Drove Record Potash Consumption

Page 19: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

Expect Significant Rebound in Global Demand

World Potash Shipments

2013 forecast bridge by key market

Page 20: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: TFI, PotashCorp

Producer Shipments - Million Tons DAP/MAP

Spring Demand Expected to Be Strong

US Phosphate Demand

Page 21: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

Million TonnesMillion Tonnes

World DAP and MAP Trade

World DAP/MAP Exports World DAP/MAP Imports

Trade Expected to be Relatively Flat in 2013

Page 22: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: IFA

China increased production by 3.3 million MT which is mostly consumed domestically.

* Excluding Trinidad

Yr/Yr Change - Thousand Tonnes

Curtailments in the FSU, Egypt and Trinidad Tightened Global Market

2012 Ammonia Production Changes

Page 23: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

Million TonnesMillion Tonnes

China Remained a Wild Card in the Global Urea Market

World Urea Trade

World Urea Exports World Urea Imports

Page 24: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Global Potash Supply Overview

Page 25: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: CRU

Most Regions Have Limited Resources and Political Instability

Regional Analysis of Potash Developments

Page 26: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: AMEC, Public Filings, PotashCorp

* New Brunswick cost per tonne based on new 2MMT mine (net addition totals 1.2MMT).

** Based on 2MMT conventional greenfield mine constructed in Saskatchewan.

PotashCorp project costs exclude infrastructure outside the plant gate. Assuming US$/CDN$ exchange rate at par.

Capital Cost per Tonne – (CDN$)

Leveraging Our Brownfield Expansion Advantage

Saskatchewan Brownfield and Greenfield Potash Costs

Page 27: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

* PotashCorp investments: ICL (14%), APC (28%), SQM (32%) and Sinofert (22%)

Note: PotashCorp based on operational capability (estimated annual achievable production) while competitor capacity is stated nameplate, which may exceed operational capability

Million Tonnes KCl – 2013-2017F

Majority of the Capacity Increases Are Expected From Existing Producers

World Potash Producer Profile

PotashCorp

Page 28: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp

Number of Approved Greenfield Potash Projects Under ConstructionNumber of Exploration/Development Projects by Region

Multiple Potash Projects Are Under Review But Very Few Under Construction

Global Greenfield Potash Projects

Page 29: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level).

Shipment range based on ~3% annualized demand growth rate (2002-2017).

Operating rate forecast based on mid-point of shipment range divided by operational capability (including announced projects; assuming typical ramp-up period for new capacity).

Operating Rate* - PercentMillion Tonnes KCl

Limited Greenfield Capacity Operational by 2017; Demand Rebound Is Biggest Factor

World Potash Supply and Demand

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

Page 30: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Global Phosphate Supply Overview

Page 31: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp

Most New Capacity Occurring With Existing Producers

Global Phosphate Rock Capacity Additions

Cumulative Capacity Additions - Million Tonnes

Page 32: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp

*Capacity includes several projects classified by sources as uncertain, and excludes projects classified as unlikely

Million Tonnes P2O5

Majority of Capacity Being Developed in Saudi Arabia and Morocco

New Global Phosphoric Acid Capacity*

Page 33: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp

Operating Rate – Percent Product - Million Tonnes P2O5

Expect Relatively Balanced Market in the Medium Term

World Phosphoric Acid Supply and Demand

Page 34: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

North American Nitrogen Supply Overview

Page 35: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Numerous Nitrogen Capacity Announcements

Major North American Fertilizer Production Locations

- Existing N Complex

- High Probability N Projects

- Medium Probability N Projects

- More Speculative N Projects

Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates; Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Page 36: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Blue Johnson & Associates, Public Filings, PotashCorp

Million Short Tons

Majority of New Ammonia Production Expected to be Consumed by Downstream Products

North America Ammonia Profile

Scenario 1 – assumes all high probability projects are completed by 2018

Scenario 2 – assumes all high and medium probability projects are completed by 2018

Scenario 3 – assumes all high, medium and a few speculative projects are completed by 2018

Scenarios based on PotashCorp assessment of announced project probabilities and potential product mix.

Page 37: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Blue Johnson & Associates, Public Filings, PotashCorp

Million Short Tons

Urea Imports Expected to Shrink With New Capacity Start-ups

North America Urea Profile

Scenario 1 – assumes all high probability projects are completed by 2018

Scenario 2 – assumes all high and medium probability projects are completed by 2018

Scenario 3 – assumes all high, medium and a few speculative projects are completed by 2018

Scenarios based on PotashCorp assessment of announced project probabilities and potential product mix.

Page 38: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

Note: Cost of production estimates based on natural gas price forecast range for 2017

US$/Tonne

Expect Production Will Be Required From Higher-Cost Offshore Suppliers

Ammonia Delivered Cost to US Gulf

Page 39: PotashCorp - Market Analysis Report - Q1 2013

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