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PotashCorp.com
March 20, 2013
Q1 2013 Market Analysis Report
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
• Agriculture and Fertilizer Market Update
• Global Potash Supply Overview
• Global Phosphate Supply Overview
• North American Nitrogen Supply Overview
Presentation Overview
Agriculture and Fertilizer Market Update
Source: USDA, PotashCorp
2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year. Consumption forecast based on historical trend line growth.
Million Tonnes
Need for Historically Large Production Increase to Avoid Additional Shortfall
World Grain and Oilseed Supply/Demand
2013 Production Growth Rate Scenarios
6% (~ 3X Historical Growth Rate)
4% (~ 2X Historical Growth Rate)
Source: USDA
2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.
Stocks – Billion BushelsUse – Billion Bushels
Supply Shortfall Has Resulted in Significant Demand Rationing
US Corn Use and Ending Stocks
Source: USDA
Bushels/Acre
Recent Yields Have Fallen Well Below Preliminary USDA Projections
US Corn Yield
Source: USDA
2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.
Million TonnesUse – Billion Bushels
Reduced Production and Strong Chinese Demand Expected to Keep Supply Tight
Soybean Market Situation
US S&D China Imports
Stocks-to-Use Ratio
Source: USDA
2012F refers to the 2012/13 crop year.
Million TonnesMillion Tonnes
World Is Counting on a Large Production Response From South America
South American Crop Production
Soybeans Corn
Source: USDA, Doane, Statistics Canada, Agriculture Canada, Kostal Ag, PotashCorp
Million AcresMillion Acres
Expect Large Planted Acreage of Major Fertilizer-Consuming Crops
North American Planted Acreage Forecast
US Major Crop Acreage Canadian Major Crop Acreage
Source: USDA, Statistics Canada, AAFC, PotashCorp
Billion CDN$Billion US$
Strong Crop Prices Support a Healthy Farm Economy
North American Farm Income
US Net Cash Farm Income Canadian Net Farm Income
Source: Bloomberg
Price Index (10-Year Average = 100)
Prices Remain Well Above Historical Levels
North American Crop Prices
Source: DTN, Bloomberg
Price Index (January 2011 = 100)
Fertilizer Prices Lag Behind Increases in Crop Prices
US Corn and Retail Fertilizer Prices
Source: USDA, PotashCorp
* Based on USDA application rate multiplied by percentage of acres applied
Application Rate* – lbs per AcreAverage Plant Population per Acre
Application Rates Have Not Kept Pace With Nutrient Removal
US Corn Plant Populations and Potash Use
Source: Iowa State (Mallarino, 2008), PotashCorp
Soybean Return Variables
Incremental Economic Return – US$/Acre
Strong Projected Returns on Soils Testing Below the Critical Level
Incremental Economic Return to Potash Fertilization
Soil Test K (PPM)
Av. Yield Response bu/acre*
Rate lbs of
K20/acre
Retail K Price$/st
90-130 6 90 $550
<90 8 120 $550
*Based on soybean yield response data from Iowa
Soybean Price – US$/bushel
Source: Fertecon, IFA, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
Significant Global Distributor Inventory Destocking Occurred in 2012
World Potash Shipments and Consumption
Distributor inventory estimated to be ~3 million tonnes lower at the end of 2012
Source: IPNI, USDOC, AAPFCO, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
Anticipate Strong Spring Demand to Meet Projected Consumption
North American Potash Market Update
Source: ANDA, PotashCorp
Cumulative Deliveries - Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent
Brazil Potash Deliveries to Final ConsumerSupportive Agriculture Fundamentals Drove Record Potash Consumption
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
Expect Significant Rebound in Global Demand
World Potash Shipments
2013 forecast bridge by key market
Source: TFI, PotashCorp
Producer Shipments - Million Tons DAP/MAP
Spring Demand Expected to Be Strong
US Phosphate Demand
Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
Million TonnesMillion Tonnes
World DAP and MAP Trade
World DAP/MAP Exports World DAP/MAP Imports
Trade Expected to be Relatively Flat in 2013
Source: IFA
China increased production by 3.3 million MT which is mostly consumed domestically.
* Excluding Trinidad
Yr/Yr Change - Thousand Tonnes
Curtailments in the FSU, Egypt and Trinidad Tightened Global Market
2012 Ammonia Production Changes
Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
Million TonnesMillion Tonnes
China Remained a Wild Card in the Global Urea Market
World Urea Trade
World Urea Exports World Urea Imports
Global Potash Supply Overview
Source: CRU
Most Regions Have Limited Resources and Political Instability
Regional Analysis of Potash Developments
Source: AMEC, Public Filings, PotashCorp
* New Brunswick cost per tonne based on new 2MMT mine (net addition totals 1.2MMT).
** Based on 2MMT conventional greenfield mine constructed in Saskatchewan.
PotashCorp project costs exclude infrastructure outside the plant gate. Assuming US$/CDN$ exchange rate at par.
Capital Cost per Tonne – (CDN$)
Leveraging Our Brownfield Expansion Advantage
Saskatchewan Brownfield and Greenfield Potash Costs
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
* PotashCorp investments: ICL (14%), APC (28%), SQM (32%) and Sinofert (22%)
Note: PotashCorp based on operational capability (estimated annual achievable production) while competitor capacity is stated nameplate, which may exceed operational capability
Million Tonnes KCl – 2013-2017F
Majority of the Capacity Increases Are Expected From Existing Producers
World Potash Producer Profile
PotashCorp
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp
Number of Approved Greenfield Potash Projects Under ConstructionNumber of Exploration/Development Projects by Region
Multiple Potash Projects Are Under Review But Very Few Under Construction
Global Greenfield Potash Projects
* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level).
Shipment range based on ~3% annualized demand growth rate (2002-2017).
Operating rate forecast based on mid-point of shipment range divided by operational capability (including announced projects; assuming typical ramp-up period for new capacity).
Operating Rate* - PercentMillion Tonnes KCl
Limited Greenfield Capacity Operational by 2017; Demand Rebound Is Biggest Factor
World Potash Supply and Demand
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
Global Phosphate Supply Overview
Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp
Most New Capacity Occurring With Existing Producers
Global Phosphate Rock Capacity Additions
Cumulative Capacity Additions - Million Tonnes
Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp
*Capacity includes several projects classified by sources as uncertain, and excludes projects classified as unlikely
Million Tonnes P2O5
Majority of Capacity Being Developed in Saudi Arabia and Morocco
New Global Phosphoric Acid Capacity*
Source: CRU, Fertecon, PotashCorp
Operating Rate – Percent Product - Million Tonnes P2O5
Expect Relatively Balanced Market in the Medium Term
World Phosphoric Acid Supply and Demand
North American Nitrogen Supply Overview
Numerous Nitrogen Capacity Announcements
Major North American Fertilizer Production Locations
- Existing N Complex
- High Probability N Projects
- Medium Probability N Projects
- More Speculative N Projects
Source: Blue, Johnson & Associates; Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Blue Johnson & Associates, Public Filings, PotashCorp
Million Short Tons
Majority of New Ammonia Production Expected to be Consumed by Downstream Products
North America Ammonia Profile
Scenario 1 – assumes all high probability projects are completed by 2018
Scenario 2 – assumes all high and medium probability projects are completed by 2018
Scenario 3 – assumes all high, medium and a few speculative projects are completed by 2018
Scenarios based on PotashCorp assessment of announced project probabilities and potential product mix.
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Blue Johnson & Associates, Public Filings, PotashCorp
Million Short Tons
Urea Imports Expected to Shrink With New Capacity Start-ups
North America Urea Profile
Scenario 1 – assumes all high probability projects are completed by 2018
Scenario 2 – assumes all high and medium probability projects are completed by 2018
Scenario 3 – assumes all high, medium and a few speculative projects are completed by 2018
Scenarios based on PotashCorp assessment of announced project probabilities and potential product mix.
Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp
Note: Cost of production estimates based on natural gas price forecast range for 2017
US$/Tonne
Expect Production Will Be Required From Higher-Cost Offshore Suppliers
Ammonia Delivered Cost to US Gulf
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