II-PIC 2017: Commercialization Potential of Emerging Technologies: Insights Based on Patent Analysis

Copyright of Shell International

Commercialisation Potential of Emerging Technologies: Insights Based on Patent Analysis

Shalu AsarikandyDr. Monalisa Patel

Shell India

1N0V 3, 2017


Definitions & Cautionary Note

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2016 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, [03 Nov 2017]. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. This presentation may contain references to Shell’s website. These references are for the readers’ convenience only. Shell is not incorporating by reference any information posted on www.shell.com. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.

Nov 3, 2017 2


Contents

Nov 3, 2017 3Footer

▪ Technology Commercialisation and Patent Information

▪ Introduction to Technologies Discussed in Case Studies

▪ Battery Technologies

▪ Wind Energy

▪ Patent information Parameters & Analysis

▪ Patent Classifications

▪ Assignee Type

▪ Priority & Publication Data

▪ Country Criteria

▪ Legal Status: Grant Rates


$

Technology Commercialisation and Patent Information

Nov 3, 2017 4Footer

Invention Development Commercialisation Improvements

$$

Degree of technology commercialisation and its maturity

Market Data Financial DataIntellectual Property Data

Others Country PoliciesRegulatory Information

Technical Data

Patent DataPatent Bibliographic DataPriority Date Publication Date

Priority Country Publication CountryAssignees Legal Status

Patent Families Classification Others


Technology Commercialisation and Patent Information

Understanding the technology Patent

Bibliographic Data

▪ Patent Publication trends

▪ Country Distributions (Priority,

Publication)

▪ Major Assignees and their trends etc.

Date Month 2017 5Footer

Are there better indicators of degree of commercialisation of a technology??

Aim is to study new ratios of patent bibliographic data as better indicators of the degree of commercialisation of a technology!!

FIVE PARAMETERS

Ratio based on first priority and publication countries Ratio of Patent Classifications: Specific vs Others

Ratio between the type of Assignees (Corporates vs Non Corporates) Ratio based on the count of countries (One Country vs Others)

Grant Rate Trends


Introduction to Technologies Discussed in Case Studies

Battery Technologies

✓ Lead Acid Batteries

✓ Lithium Ion Batteries

✓ Lithium Sulphur Batteries

✓ Lithium Air Batteries

Source: Nature Materials | Vol 11 | February 2012

Source: Energy and Power Engineering, 2013, 5, 481-488

Wind Energy

✓ Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT)

✓ Other Wind Energy Technologies (OTHER-WT)

Two Emerging Technology Fields Are Considered For The Analysis

Business

Technology


Patent ClassificationsEach Patent documents associated with Patent classifications classes:-

✓ Classifications specific to the technology (Tech Classes)

✓ Classifications from other fields (Other Classes)

✓ Increasing degree of commercialisation of a technology Increasing presence

of “Other Classes”

✓ Ratio of “Other Classes to Tech Classes” parameter for assessing the level of

commercial development in a technology field

✓ Increasing value of ratio an increasing trend for the emerging

technologies that is undergoing or about to undergo technology

commercialisation

✓ Comparison of the ratio curve between different sub-technologies in the

same technology domain possible indication for comparing the

commercialisation level in different technology fields

Battery

HAWT


Patent Classifications


00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,8

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CLA

SS R

ATI

O

CUMULATIVE DATA : PUBLICATION YEAR

00,050,1

0,150,2

0,250,3

0,350,4

0,45

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CLA

SS R

ATI

O

CUMULATIVE DATA: PUBLICATION YEAR

Lead- Acid Battery decreasing trend due to tech. maturation

Lithium- Sulfur, Lithium- Air, Lithium-ionIncreasing trend indicating transition from R&D to

commercialisation

Lead- Acid Battery Increasing trend due to tech.

commercialisation


Assignee TypePatent Assignees

✓ Corporate Assignees

✓ Non-Corporate Assignees (Universities, Research

Institutes, Labs etc.)

✓ Beginning stage of invention more research may be

contributed by the non-corporate patent assignees and this

situation may be gradually changing based on the level of

commercialisation

✓ The ratio of the count of “Non-Corporate” to “Corporate”

assignees in a technology area indicating the degree of

technology commercialisation

✓ The ratio curve between different technology fields in a given

technology domain can indicate the relative levels of

commercialisationsRequires segregation of assignees from patent

data into corporate and non-corporate

0 100 200 300 400 500

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

Year 7

Year 8

Year 9

Year 10

Year 11

Count of Patent Families

Corporate Non-Corporate

Deg

ree

ofco

mm

erci

alis

atio

n


Assignee Type


0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

COU

NT

OF

NO

N-

CORP

ORA

TE/C

ORP

ORA

TE


LEAD-ACID LI-ION LI-S LI-AIR

0

0,03

0,06

0,09

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

COU

NT

OF

NO

N-

CORP

ORA

TE/C

ORP

ORA

TE


HAWT OTHER WT

Lithium-Air, Lithium- Sulphur higher ratio indicating technology to be in the initial stages of invention and more

research activities contributed by non corporates

Other WT higher ratio more research activities contributed by non corporates


Priority & Publication DataPriority Country: Country where the invention is first filed

✓ First country for the technology to get commercialized (selling or manufacturing)

✓ Beginning stage of any technology filings mostly in the country of origin

compared to filings outside the country of origin

✓ Invention Phase ratio of “total inventions” (based on first priority) to “all total

patent publications” appears to be more

Publication Country: Country where the patent for the invention has been filed✓ More the number of countries for patent filings, more the level of globalization

indicating the commercialisation phase of the technology

✓ Beginning of commercialisation ratio of “total inventions” (based on first priority)

to “all total patent publications” appears to be less

✓ Ratio of the “count of first priority publications” to “count of total patent families”

for a technology in a specific country indicating country specific degree of

commercialisation of a technology

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1960 1980 2000 2020

COU

NT

OF

1ST

PRIO

RITY

/ CO

UN

T O

F TO

TAL

PUBL

ICA

TIO

NS


Deg

ree

of c

omm

erci

alis

atio

n

Ratio value progresses from near to 1 region towards zero in an ideal scenario, but there can be exceptions based on other

factors


Priority & Publication Data


0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

COU

NT

OF

1ST

PRIO

RITY

/ CO

UN

T O

F TO

TAL

PUBL

ICA

TIO

NS


US DE CN JP

HAWTRatio drop in US, CN, JP indicating high degree of commercialisation

DE one of the major hub for HAWT tech development high count of local players increasing number of patent data with DE as first priority

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

COU

NT

OF

1ST

PRIO

RITY

/ CO

UN

T O

F TO

TAL

PUBL

ICA

TIO

NS


US DE CN JPNo sharp ratio drop compared to HAWT relatively less

degree of commercialisation except in JP

Other-WT


Priority & Publication Data


0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017

COU

NT

OF

1ST

PRIO

RITY

/ CO

UN

T O

F TO

TAL

PUBL

ICA

TIO

NS


US JP

Lithium-ionHigh ratio in JP more local players leading to high number of priorities

Drop in ratio in US, JP around 2000 indicating higher degree of commercialisation

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

COU

NT

OF

1ST

PRIO

RITY

/ CO

UN

T O

F TO

TAL

PUBL

ICA

TIO

NS


US JP Lead- Acid

Lead- Acid Battery is already an old and fully commercialized technology which is also well indicative from the plateau curve


Country Criteria

✓ Beginning stage of any technology filings mostly

in the country of origin compared to filings outside

the country of origin

✓ More the number of countries for patent filings,

more the level of globalization indicating the

commercialisation phase of the technology

✓ The ratio “Count of Patent Families with number of

filing countries more than unity” to “Count of

Patent Families with number of filing countries is

unity” may indicate the degree of globalization

0 100 200 300 400 500

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

Year 7

Year 8

Year 9

Year 10

Year 11


NC>1 NC=1

Deg

ree

ofco

mm

erci

alis

atio

n


Country Criteria


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

NC>

1/ N

C=1


LEAD-ACID LI-ION LI-SULPHUR LI-AIR

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017

NC>

1/ N

C=1


HAWT Other WT

Li-ion increasing ratio after late 90’stechnology approaching towards

commercialisation

HAWT increasing ratio after late 90’shigher degree of technology

commercialisation compared to Other WT

Li-Air, Li-S decreasing ratio not many players and activity more concentrated in academics where filings are more in the

country of origin


Legal Status: Grant Rates▪ Granted patents will help an entity to exclude others making, using,

offering for sale, or selling the patented invention which in a way helps

to occupy the market and be the leader

▪ In the initial stage of a new technology patents will be getting filed in a

higher rate but the conversion rate to grants may not be that high based

on lot of factor i.e. technology success and more concept based filings

▪ When a technology is more towards commercialisation stage the count

of grants will increase to occupy the market/ develop monopoly and be

the market leader

▪ The conversion rate from filed patents to grants with time will indicate

the extent the technology has been commercialized

▪ The change in number of grants over time is an indicator for the extent

of commercialisation of a technology

0 100 200 300 400 500

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Year 6

Year 7

Year 8

Year 9

Year 10

Year 11


Applications Grant

Deg

ree

ofco

mm

erci

alis

atio

n


Legal Status: Grant Rates in US only


0

2000

4000

6000

CHA

NG

E IN

CO

UN

T O

F G

RAN

TS

PUBLICATION YEAR

LEAD-ACID LI-ION LI-S LI-AIR

Exponential rise in change in grant count over time for Li-ion technology indicates technology closing towards commercialisation

Lead-Acid Battery no change in count of grants over time indicates technology reached commercialisation and in the maturation stage

0

500

1000

1500

2000

CHA

NG

E IN

CO

UN

T O

F G

RAN

TS

PUBLICATION YEAR

HAWT Other WT

Exponential rise in change in count of grants over time for HAWT compared to Other WT indicates the higher degree of commercialisation happened for HAWT


Summary

▪ An attempt to highlight the improvement needs in patent analytics domain for

understanding the commercialisation potential of technologies.

▪ Tried some new ratios of patent bibliographic parameters as indicators of

commercialisation potential of a technology

▪ Need further studies to formalise a methodology for using patent information as

indicator of commercialisation potential of a technology


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II-PIC 2017: Commercialization Potential of Emerging Technologies: Insights Based on Patent Analysis