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This is a quick look at predictions for 2014 using the letters of the alphabet to talk through almost 26 predictions.
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© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential
January 2014
Buzzwords for 2014
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011100
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Inpatient Days
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© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 2
2014 .. The year of
ACO Accountable Care Organization500 as of year end 2013, projected to double in one yearMedicare added 123 new ACOs (MSSP) in January 2014
A
According to a baseline study of early Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs), ACO patients had 5.8% lower total costs of care than non-ACO patients ($7,694 vs. $8,164).
Source: The Commonwealth Fund, January 2014
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 3
2014… The year of
Bundled Payment BAcute Acute/Post Post Acute
Payment Retrospective Retrospective Retrospective ProspectiveParticipants 3 44 14 37
Organizations 32 192 165 75
Episode All acute patients, all DRGs
Selected DRGs, hospital plus post-acute period
Selected DRGs, post-acute period only
Selected DRGs, hospital plus readmissions
Services included in the bundle
All Part A services paid as part of the MS-DRG payment
All non-hospice Part A and B services during the initial inpatient stay, post-acute period and readmissions
All non-hospice Part A and B services during the post-acute period and readmits.
All Part non-hospice A and B services (including the hospital and physician) during initial inpatient stay
48 Bundled Payment GroupingsMajor joint upper extremity
483 Major joint and limb reattachment procedure of upper extremity with complication or comorbidity or major complication or comorbidity
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 4
2014… The year of
C Consumer Transparency
These common-sense best practices bring consistency, clarity, and transparency to patient financial communications.
These common-sense best practices bring consistency, clarity, and transparency to patient financial communications.
Bill posted on Internet $55,000 for appendix operation
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 5
2014… The year of
High Deductible Plan D
We have definitely been hearing from members that they are seeing an increase in bad debt and even in charity care for people with high-deductible health plans," Caroline Steinberg, vice president for trends analysis at the American Hospital Association, told KHN. "A lot of these folks tend to not understand the structure of their benefits until they get to the hospital, and they're not covered as thoroughly as they thought."The rate of workers in high-deductible plans has more than doubled since 2009 to 19 percent, KHN says, citing figures from the Kaiser Family Foundation.
Additional buzzwords: Retail, reference pricing
Source: Kaiser Family
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 6
2014… The year of
Expenditure
The number of people employed in healthcare dropped by 6,000 in December, the first time total healthcare employment declined since July 2003, CNN Money.
E
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201210%11%12%13%14%15%16%17%18%
17.2%
Health Expenditure as % of GDP
2012 2011 2010 20092.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
3.7% 3.6%3.8% 3.8%
Healthcare Spending Growth
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 7
2014… The year of
Frequent Conditions AHRQ
FPrincipal CCS diagnosis Number of stays in
thousandsStays per 10,000
population
All stays 38,591 1,239
Liveborn (newborn infant) 3,818 123Pneumonia (except that caused by tuberculosis and sexually transmitted diseases)
1,114 36
Septicemia (except in labor) 1,094 35Congestive heart failure, nonhypertensive 970 31Osteoarthritis 964 31Mood disorders 896 29Cardiac dysrhythmias 795 26Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis 729 23Complication of device, implant, or graft 699 22Spondylosis, intervertebral disc disorders, other back problems 667 21
Table 1. Number of hospital stays and stays per 10,000 population by the most frequent principal diagnoses, 2011
Abbreviation: CCS, Clinical Classifications SoftwareSource: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Center for Delivery, Organization, and Markets, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP), Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS), 2011
Frequencies
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 8
2014… The year of
SGR Sustainable Growth Rate
Congress has 3 months to consider 2 very similar bipartisan bills in the House and Senate that would repeal Medicare's sustainable growth rate (SGR) formula for physician pay. Both measures would shift compensation from fee-for-service to pay-for-performance and consolidate 3 Medicare incentive programs, including meaningful use of electronic health records, into a single program.
G
Averted20% decrease in Jan
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 9
2014… The year of
HAC H
FY 2014 Final Inpatient PPS Rule
Creates HAC Reduction Program with two Domain measurements that overlaps in its entirety with existing HAC program and VBP
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 10
2014… The year of
ICD-10IOutlook grim for docs' ICD-10 readiness
October 1, 2014Physician practices are still behind schedule in terms of preparation for ICD-10, yet generally are optimistic about readiness for its implementation, according to a recent survey conducted by medical claims clearinghouse Navicure.Seventy-four percent of survey respondents said they still haven't started implementing their ICD-10s. What can be taken as a bit of good news is that 76 percent of respondents to a series of KPMG surveys indicated they have completed an impact assessment, widely considered the first key step en route to ICD-10.
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 11
2014… The year of
Joint accountability with physicians
JACO Governance
Two-thirds of primary care and one-third of specialists currently depend on an exclusive relationship with a hospital for some or all of their incomes. Many of these are employed. But private health insurers and large medical groups are options for physicians seeking cover, and the terms of their deals dis-intermediate traditional hospital referral relationships. Source: Deloitte
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 12
2014… The year of
Risk K Potential for revenue losses to competitors or penalties
from regulators is increasing
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 13
2014… The year of
Lean L
Pharmacy Workflow ProjectBusiness Impact: Reduced the number of trips to the hospital pharmacy due
to inventory shortage by 8 trips per month Reduced the surcharges paid to the trucking company Reduced the pharmacy headcount by two full time
equivalents (FTE)
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 14
2014… The year of
MSPB Medicare Spend Per Beneficiary
MA measure in the new Efficiency Domain A claims-based measure that include risk-adjusted and price-standardized payments for all Part A and Part B services provided from 3 days prior to a hospital admission (index admission) through 30 days after the hospital discharge
Measure under VBP starting 2015
M & A Merger and AcquisitionsDeals Hospitals
2010 72 1252011 90 1562012 100 247
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 15
2014… The year of
Net Income – includes investments Operating Income- on operationsMedian in 2012 3.15%, California Median 3%
N2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Operating Income Projections
Projection with no interventions.
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 16
2014… The year of
Outpatient- Growth Area Up 2.9% from 2011 OJP Morgan- Revenue growth: in the expansion of outpatient care and in clinical integration leading to value-based care.
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 17
2014… The year of
PQRS PQ
The Physician Quality Reporting System (PQRS) has been using incentive payments, and will begin to use payment adjustments in 2015, to encourage eligible health care professionals (EPs) to report on specific quality measures. EPs who do not participate in 2013 and receive a payment adjustment will be paid 1.5% less than the than the Medicare PFS amount for services provided in 2015. Increases to 2% in 2016.
2013 P2014 F2014Measures 258 296 284
Measures Removed N/A 46 45
Also Population Health
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 18
2014… The year of
Readmit rate 2015 R
20131%
20142%
20153%
Readmission• 2013- 1% $280M for
2,213 hospitals- Average fine .42%
• 2014- 2% $227M for 2,225 hospitals- Average fine .38%
• Overall readmit rate for Medicare 18.4%(down from 19%)
Adds hip/knee and COPD to programIn FY 15
RAC AuditReference pricingRetail
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 19
2014… The year of
Supply ChainRepresent 14% of expenses in California hospitals- second largest category of expenses
S
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 20
2014… The year of
Two midnight rule
Starting Oct 2013, CMS introduced the two midnight rule. The final rule for the 2014 Inpatient Prospective Payment System stated an appropriate inpatient admission is when the patient stays in the hospital for at least two midnights.
T
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 21
2014… The year
Utilization U
Inpatient grew at -1.5% over 2011And Outpatient grew 2.9%. Inpatient Surgeries declined -2.2%.
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011100120140160180200220240260280
Inpatient Days
IP d
ays
in m
illio
ns
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 22
2014… The year ofMedicare Value Based PurchasingAdding 2 new outcome measures for 2015: PSI, CLABSIAdding new efficiency: Medicare Spending per Beneficiary
V
20131%`
20141.25%
20151.5%
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 23
2014… The year of
W
W
Workflow
2012 study by former Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) administrator Donald M. Berwick and RAND Corporation analyst Andrew D. Hackbarth estimated waste consumed $476 billion to $992 billion, or 18 percent to 37 percent of healthcare spending.
Waste
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 24
2014… The year of
Extra Yellow ZebraYear of the Horse
X YZ
© 2013 Health Catalystwww.healthcatalyst.comProprietary and Confidential 25
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