Evidence of change: Andean glacier (Yanamarey, Perú)

1987

19972005

1987

Remarkable progress (collect, store, process, disseminate)

Need to adapt

What about marginal communities?

Challenges of New Climatic Predictions

A. Patt, with data from IRI

Forecast Maproom (from Columbia U, for Red Cross)

Communicating Climate Risks and Decision Capacity:Disaster management explorations via games

SCIENTISTS

What is their job? Predictions (information)

What matters? Predictable events (extreme rain, temp, etc)

What timeline matters?

Time between prediction and actual event

What “chances” matter?

Probability of event materializing

The gap between forecasters and humanitarian workers

RED CROSS STAFF

Decisions (action)

Avoidable losses (death, hunger, etc)

Time needed to implement decisions

Risk of losses so high as to deserve action

Given what we know as of May 15 2008, we can say that, for the period June-August 2008 in the areas of West Africa highlighted in the map, the probability of seeing precipitation that would rank in the top 15% of the historical record is now enhanced to between 40% and 50%

Community workshop to design flood contingency plan

Activation of community early warning procedures

Preparation of shelters/camps

Refreshment training of Red Cross volunteers (search & rescue, first aid, etc)

Evacuation of people at risk

Pre-disaster assessment of capacity to respond to imminent crisis

Activation and implementation of existing contingency plan

In-country procurement of relief supplies to replenish minimum stocks

Procurement of relief supplies from abroad to respond to catastrophic event

Pre-positioning of relief supplies, logistics and human resource assets

Communications (both telecommunications and media)

Other?

Examples of disaster management options