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Simon Finfer is a leading critical care clinical researcher. Hear his candid talk on the reality of research and publication and why it's relevant to you!
Citation preview
Research and Publication: The light and the dark side
Simon Finfer [email protected]
Royal North Shore Hospital
@icuresearch
Disclosures
http://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMra1208705/suppl_file/nejmra1208705_disclosures.pdf
or see @icuresearch
What will I talk about? • Research
– Why do it? Gattinoni vs. Finfer – Testable vs. untestable hypotheses – “Industrial plant” – How to do it well – collaborators and industry – How to mess it up
• Publication – What do journals want – Is peer review a good idea – Could I make it all up and get away with it? – Things you won’t believe (or at least shouldn’t happen) – Don’t take “No” for an answer – Protect yourself – What’s next …………… ?
Eminence based medicine
Evidence based medicine
Charisma based medicine?
Am I qualified? • Research
– Lead SAFE, NICE SUGAR, – MC – RENAL, CHEST, ADRENAL ETC. – Grant reviews – NHMRC, NZHRC, CIHR, NIHR (UK),
MRC (UK), ICF, etc – SC – PROWESS SHOCK, ACCESS, EUROTHERM
• Publication – Only 120 papers but….. – 20% (24) in NEJM, JAMA, Lancet or BMJ – Editor OTCC, section editor OTM, Guest Editor NEJM
• What can’t I tell you? – I can’t tell you that …………
Why do we do research? • We do it for
– Power
– Money
– SEX
But seriously…….
Why do we do research?
– To understand
– To change behaviour – To improve patients’
outcomes
• How much certainty do we want? • Few treatments produce dramatic effects
• Most claims for large benefits prove evanescent
Strict control of random error • large numbers of deaths or other relevant outcome And Bias • Strict randomisation with allocation concealment • Appropriate analysis, with no unduly data-dependent
emphasis on specific parts of the overall evidence
TBI Research
13 13
IIT-TC – Eligible but not included
Eligible but not included (16 Trials - 5320 participants) Other IIT trials (n=16) Country Sample size UNABLE provide data (n=4) Ma 2008 China 510 Yu 2005 China 54 He 2007 China 188 Fernandez 2005 USA 207 CollaboraEon denied (n=2) Yang 2009 China 240 Yan 2009 China 356 Withdrew (n=2) Van den Berghe 2001 Belgium 1,548 Van den Berghe 2006 Belgium 1,200 No response (n=8) Grey 2004 USA 61 He 2008 China 122 Taslimi 2009 Iran 129 Lacherade 2008-‐2010 France 440 Benito 2008 Spain 28 De Azevedo 2007 Brazil 48 Stecher 2006 Slovenia n/a Desai 2012 USA 189
So, how to do it well …….
Build a team and collaborate… even with industry
“can’t be done ……” “never been done ……..”
“pick a patient group – think small ……” “can’t be blinded…….”
The University of Sydney Faculty of Medicine
Royal North Shore Hospital Northern Sydney Area Health Service
and
Institute for International Health
Study Treatments: 4% albumin (ALBUMEX®) or saline Manufactured by CSL Limited, Melbourne, Australia.
Study fluid distribution and tracking
SAFE – Belfast 2005
Study Design • Packaging and distribution
Data management
SAFE Study: Actual v Target Recruitment
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69
Week of Study
Num
ber
Rec
ruite
d
Actual Recruitment Target Recruitment
It’s your data, don’t compromise!
V
How to mess it up ……..
How to mess it up? • Launch into it unprepared….
– Without knowing incidence, outcome, realistic effect or minimal clinically important effect
• Choose an untestable hypothesis – Dopamine / Frusemide to reverse early AKI
• Work with people seeking to prove something – “we are not interested in funding you because your
proposed study is not designed to show our product in a favourable light”
– “can we arrange for these two hospitals to be randomised to the same group?”
– “can we analyze the data in all three ways and publish the analysis that shows our product is better?”
• Do your sample size calculation backwards …….
Who is behind it?
Who is behind it??
Who is behind it??
Who is behind it??
Who is behind it??
Research…….. Converting b*llsh*t into FF points.
Writing and publication ……..
What do journals want?
• Advertising revenue • Advertising revenue • Advertising revenue …..
What do journals want?
• Revenue from reprints • Revenue from reprints • Revenue from reprints
What do journals want?
• High quality papers or • Papers that will be bought in the thousands by
company marketing departments or • Papers that will be widely cited because they will
generate ……
• Advertising revenue …….. • And publication fees
Is peer review a good thing?
Is peer review a good thing?
Reviewer 1 – the results appear to be robust Reviewer 2 – this is a very important study Reviewer 3 – the authors should be commended on a well thought out and executed clinical trial Reviewer 4 – effects of HES on renal function is a never ending story Reviewer 5 – “this is not a randomised trial, there was no allocation concealment, the study was not blinded, I doubt one can draw meaningful inferences from these data with any acceptable degree of certainty.”
Reviewer 3
Reviewer 3
Too many journals?
• Editor - “We can’t ask them to change it all …..
• Finfer - “Well, it’s the wrong design, the wrong outcome, the wrong analysis. It’s meaningless. You can’t publish it.”
• Editor – “It’s better than 90% of the stuff I’m sent, if I don’t publish this I may as well close the journal down”
• Finfer – “Sounds like a good idea”
SURPRISE!!
SURPRISE!!
Some good news
Cochrane albumin Review: Reactions from industry
Manufacturers allocated $2.2 million: • To prepare literature reviews supporting the use of
albumin, to be sent to leading regulatory agencies
• To prepare and disseminate a Cochrane critique dossier
• To establish a medical advisory panel to write articles supporting the use of albumin
Who is behind it??
§ Issues?
§ Unblinded
§ Marked baseline imbalance
§ Insufficient data re resuscitation and renal function
§ Stopped for futility but reports “positive” findings
§ Changing P values
§ Senior industry (HES) employee on trial advisory board
What’s next?
Goodness
My view of the world ….