Osteoporosis market opportunities

Cairo

Prepared by: Walid Saafan

Topics

Summary

Market Overview

Medical analysis

Promotional analysis

Cost analysis for leading brands

Summary

The Osteoporosis market size:

– Sales: 10.2 Mio US$ in representing 0.4% of the total market GR%

+9.9%, and CAGR 10.7% vs total market GR% of +16.4% and

CAGR +18.3%.

– Units: 559K packs, GR% +10.4% and CAGR +7.4% vs total

market GR% +11.7% and CAGR +9.7%.

Osteoporosis market is derived by Multinational corporations

(Novartis, MSD, Servier, and Sanofi Aventis) represent 85% of the

market.

The osteoporosis is not reimbursed in the MOH and the sales are

driven from the private market (out pocket).

The market is derived by Bisphosphonate class representing 54% of

the total market followed be Calcitonins representing 32%, both

classes represent 86% of the market.

Source: IMS Y09

Summary – cont.,

The MKT is consisting of 3 trends

– Bisphosphonate: divided to Alendronate group mainly Fosavance/

Fosamax from MSD with 8 generics, Residronate group mainly

Actonel from Sanofie Aventis with two generic.

– Calcitonin: the oldest trend led by Miacalcic launched in 1986

– Raloxifen: leading the group Evista from Lilly with 4 generics.

The main segment prescribing antiresorptive for osteoporosis are the

ORTH with 76% Rx share and GR of +11%.

Source: IMS Y09

Market overview – leading classes

Market segmentation

Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

Market overview – leading classes cont.,

Leading brands per classLeading corporate per class

Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

Market overview – market development

Source: IMS Y09, values in K.US$

Total pharma.

Market GR%+19.5% +19.7% +18.9% +16.4%

Market overview – Leading corporate performance

Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

Market overview – Leading brands performance

Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

Medical analysis - Source of RXs

The osteoporosis Rx are mainly generated from ORTH doctors contributing with 75% of all antiresorptive Rx.

Other specialties show minor contribution with a growing potential for the GP segment.

The market is showing low level of stay on therapy for most of brands with an average of 1.8 Pack/Rx for Miacalcic, 1.6 for Protelos and 2 for Actonel and Fosavance.

Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

Medical analysis - Source of RXs

Leading brands per specialty Leading brand source of RXs

Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

Promotional analysis - Target specialties

ORTHO is the main target for details

acquiring 68% of the total details.

New shift from ORTHO towards IM in

Y09.

Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

Promotional analysis - Leading corp. targeting

Corporate target classesLeading corporate per class

Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

Promotional analysis - Share of voice - ORTHO

Novartis has the highest SoV among ORTHO of 25%

(Miacalcic 16% with GR% +41%& ACLASTA +9% with

GR% +22%) with increased focus on IM.

PROTELOS has the highest SoV of 22% with GR% +29%

Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

Promotional analysis - Detail SoV analysis

Leading brands per specialty Brand target classes

Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

Cost analysis for main brands

Source: IMS, Prices in EGP

Thank you

Leading brands per class

Sales US$ CAGR GR%

Osteop.MKT. 10,207,855 10.7 9.9

M05B3 BISPHOSPH 5,498,920 9.9 10.6

FOSAVANCE/FOSAMAX 1,884,977 1.9 (0.3)

ACTONEL 1,229,611 -6.9 (11.6)

ACLASTA 1,139,665 --- 72.4

H04A0 CALCITONINS 3,224,716 4.6 7.2

MIACALCIC/PLUS 3,170,595 4.1 10.6

M05B9 CALCIUM REGULAT 1,341,167 88.6 20.3

PROTELOS 1,293,199 107.7 21.0

G03J0 SERMS 109,414 -30 (34.1)

Leading specialties – RXs

ORTHO., 237,080, 76%

G.P., 39,939, 13%

GYN, 18,075, 6%

Total Others (6) , 14,390,

5%

Y09 Projected RXs

MonthlyTreatment

cost

Yearly treatment

cost

Leading brands

MIACALCIC 367 4,405

PROTELOS 269 3,233

ACTONEL 233 2,802

ACLASTA 1,860

FOZAMAX/FOSAVANCE 217 2,607

SOT PSP

Osteoprosis market

MIACALCIC 17 316

PROTELOS 23 124

ACTONEL 26 107

ACLASTA 64 1,860

FOZAMAX/FOSAVANCE 31 100

NB: brand prices calculated based on the weighted average of its SKU’s public

sales price times the units sales

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Stay on therapy

Chart Title

MIACALCIC

PROTELOS

ACTONEL