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David E. Bloom Department of Global Health and Population
Harvard School of Public Health
Global Scenario 2:Demography and Health
Objectives
• Facts about global population• Force of population change• Future of population
World population milestones
World population in billions
Population and year Time taken to add a billion
1 billion in 1804 About 1,000,000 years
2 billion in 1927 123 years
3 billion in 1960 33 years
4 billion in 1974 14 years
5 billion in 1987 13 years
6 billion in 1999 12 years
7 billion in 2012 13 years
8 billion in 2025 13 years
9 billion in 2045 20 years
Reverend Thomas Malthus
• the original “population pessimist”
• Essay on Population, 1798
• “the irrepressible passion between the sexes…”
Two recent steps forward
1. The “demographic dividend”– baby booms, busts, and echoes– the “iron law of demography”– good policy environment
Two recent steps forward1. the “demographic dividend”
– baby booms, busts, and echoes– the “iron law of demography”– good policy environment
2. “healthier means wealthier”– labor productivity– education– savings – FDI
Future demographic and population health indicators and their implications
Key patterns and trends in health/demographics
A growing population
Declining fertility
Increasing longevity
Modest migration: poor to rich countries
Changing age structures
Urbanization
Key Trend #1aSharp rise in population size
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key Trend #1bPopulation growth, but at a declining
rate
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #2Declining fertility
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #3Increasing longevity
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #4Modest migration: poor to rich countries
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Countries averaging >100,000 migrants/yr, 2000-2005
(figures are in thousands)
Mexico, 797
China, 380
India, 270Iran, 250
Pakistan, 248
Indonesia, 200
Philippines, 180
Morocco, 110
Sudan, 106
Egypt, 105
Peru, 102
Bangladesh, 100 UAE, 115
Australia, 119
France, 144
Russia, 183
UK, 190
Germany, 200
Canada, 208
Afghanistan, 222
Italy, 225Spain, 569
USA, 1,299
Top sending countries
(accounting for 59% of all emigrants)
Top receiving countries
(accounting for 72% of all immigrants)
Max Frisch (1911-1991)
“We wanted workers, but we got people instead.”
Key trend #5aChanges in median age of
population
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #5bTrends in working-age population share
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #5cPopulation aging in China and India
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key trend #5dAbundance of adolescents and young
adults
UN World Population Prospects, 2006 Revision
Key Trend #6aWe’re at the urban “tipping point”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year
Share of World
PopulationUrbanShare ofWorldPopulation
RuralShare ofWorldPopulation
Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision
Urbanization: Boon or Bane?
Key Trend #6bMegacities and beyond….
Tokyo Mexico City
New York Sao Paulo
1975 2005 2020
Tokyo, Japan 35.2
Mexico City, Mexico 19.4
New York, USA 18.7
São Paulo, Brazil 18.3
Mumbai, India 18.2
Delhi, India 15.0
Shanghai, China 14.5
Calcutta, India 14.3
Jakarta, Indonesia 13.2
Buenos Aires, Argentina 12.6
Dhaka, Bangladesh 12.4
Los Angeles, USA 12.3
Karachi, Pakistan 11.6
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 11.5
Osaka-Kobe, Japan 11.3
Cairo, Egypt 11.1
Lagos, Nigeria 10.9
Beijing, China 10.7
Manila, Philippines 10.7
Moscow, Russian Federation 10.7
Classification Mega-city (10-20M) Meta-city (>20.0M)
2005 Mega-cities Population
(2005)
Thomas Hobbes(1588-1679)
• Life in the state of nature is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.“(Leviathan, 1660)
