Crescimento exponencial na era digital

Tecnologia e Disrupção

Crescimento exponencial na era digitalThiago Julio, MD

US$ 1,4 bi

18 meses

US$ 6 bi

2 anos

2 anosUS$ 17 bi

From exponential technologies to exponential innovation - Deloitte University Press

when you shift to an information-based environment, the pace of development jumps onto an exponential growth path and price/performance doubles every year or two

Thiago Julio

First, the doubling pattern identified by Gordon Moore in integrated circuits applies to any information technology. Kurzweil calls this the Law of Accelerating Returns (LOAR) and shows that doubling patterns in computation extend all the way back to 1900, far earlier than Moore’s original pronouncement. Second, the driver fueling this phenomenon is information. Once any domain, discipline, technology or industry becomes information-enabled and powered by information flows, its price/performance begins doubling approximately annually. Third, once that doubling pattern starts, it doesn’t stop.

“a meia vida de uma competência profissional caiu de 30 anos em 1984 para 5 anos em 2014”

“89% das Fortune 500 de 1955 não estão na lista de 2014”

“40% das Fortune 500 sairão da lista em 10 anos”

“a vida média de uma S&P 500 passou de 67 anos para 15 anos”

Thiago Julio

because mobile phones in the early 80s were bulky and expensive to use, renowned consulting firm McKinsey & Company advised AT&T not to enter the mobile telephone business, predicting there would be fewer than one million cellular phones in use by 2000. In fact, by 2000, there were one hundred million mobile phones.

Thiago Julio

Estimativa Garner:Symbian 39% market share 2012, 203mi unidades, líder até 2014Android: 14,5%RealidadeSymbian descontinuado em 2012 (2.2mi)Android: mais de 1bi somente em 2014

2002 2004 2006 20080

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

16% 14%12% 10%100% 100%

100%

100%

Thiago Julio

Navteq’s sensors covered approximately a quarter-million miles in thirty-five major cities across thirteen countries

50% das transações telefônicas

10 anos

INTERNET

MOBILE

3 anos

2005 2015 2020 20300

250000000000

500000000000

750000000000

1000000000000

1250000000000

500,000,0008,000,000,00

050,000,000,0

00

1,000,000,000,000

iot

seu celular tem mais poder computacional do que TODA a NASA em 1969

Thiago Julio

1990 Genome Project:fifteen years and cost about $6 billion1997, however, halfway through the estimated time frame, just 1 percentat seven years for just 1 percent, it would take seven hundred years to finish “1 percent,” he said. “That means we’re halfway done.”What Kurzweil got that no one else did was that the amount sequenced was doubling every year.1 percent doubling seven times is 100 percen the project was completed in 2001, early and under budget

Thiago Julio

An Exponential Organization (ExO) is one whose impact (or output) is disproportionally large—at least 10x larger—compared to its peers because of the use of new organizational techniques that leverage accelerating technologies.

Thiago Julio

In 2002, Google’s revenues were less than a half-billion dollars. Ten years later, its revenues had jumped 125x and the company was generating a half-billion dollars every three days.

Thiago Julio

recall the $10 billion in investment that was lost on Iridium and other satellite efforts in the 90s. Today, twenty years later, a new breed of satellite companies—Skybox, Planet Labs, Nanosatisfi and Satellogic—are all launching nanosatellites (which are, essentially, the size of a shoebox). The cost per launch is about $100,000 per satelliteEmiliano Kargieman, the founder of Satellogic, estimates the total cost of launching his fleet will be less than $200 million. All-told, this new breed of satellite companies is operating at one-ten-thousandth the cost and delivering about 100x better performance than twenty years ago—a millionfold increase

Thiago Julio

AI-assisted researcher fifty hours to reconstruct just one neuron in 3D. The brain has 85 billion neurons—which means it would take 4,250 billion hours to completely map the human brain. That’s 485.2 million years.

DigitalizaçãoDisrupçãoDesmonetizaçãoDemocratização

Thiago Julio

The physical world is still there, of course, but our relationship to it is changing fundamentally. Note that for many of us, our memories aren’t in our heads anymore—they’re buried in our smartphones. Via social networks, our relationships are increasingly digital, not analog, and our communication is nearly all-digital. We are rapidly changing the filter through which we deal with the world from a physical, materially-based perspective to an information- and knowledge-based one

@thiago37

Health & Medicine

Crescimento exponencial na era digital