BEIR VII: “The very error of the moon.”

Othello, Act II

Herbert L. Abrams

Nuclear

Weapons Effects

Blast Thermal & Shock Radiation

Initial Nuclear Residual Nuclear Radiation Radiation

A one-second “heat flash” travels at the speed of light: vaporizing, melting, starting

fires at a distance.

Thermal Heat Wave

The Wave Travels at Supersonic Speed, Killing People & Destroying

Buildings in its Path.

Blast

RADIATION: The Mystery

Nausea, Vomiting, Lossof Appetite, Diarrhea,

WBC Drops.

High radiation doses tend to kill cells, while low doses tend to damage the genetic code (DNA).

The higher the dose, the sooner the effects of radiation will appear & the higher the probability of death.

Radiation Effects

“Radiation Sickness”

5 Sieverts or Above Marrow Death

10 Sieverts or Above GI Death

20 Sieverts or Above Neurologic Death

Radiation Effects

ABCC (47), RERF (75)

• Life Span Study: 120,000• Adult Health Study: 20,000

The Cancer Risk From Low Level Radiation

Our Committee Report: the 700 page BEIR VII advisory recently issued by the National Research Council.

The last previous report on this subject: 1990.

The BEIR series of seven reports is widely accepted in many nations as a primary source of radiation risk estimates and protective regulations.

The 16 member BEIR VII international Study Committee consisted of scientists & educators with expertise in:

Epidemiology

Radiation Biology

Cancer Biology

Genetics

Radiology

Physics

Submissions & Presentations:

University & governmental entities such as the EPA, NRC, DOE

NGO, public interest, activist & industry groups

THE ISSUE

Higher risk estimates:smaller permissible doses

Lower risk: relaxation of protection standards

Stakes: $millions vs. health

Why “low level” radiation?

Are we all exposed?

We defined “low level” radiation as a range from near zero up to 100 milliSieverts (mSv).

30-40 times annual natural background exposure

10 times that of a CT Scan

1000 times that of a chest film.

Background: radiation from the natural environment represents 82% of human exposure.

Outer space The Ground Basic Activities

such as eating, drinking & breathing

CONTRIBUTION OF MAN-MADE CONTRIBUTION OF MAN-MADE RADIATION SOURCES (18%) RELATIVE TO RADIATION SOURCES (18%) RELATIVE TO BACKGROUND RADIATION (82%)BACKGROUND RADIATION (82%)

Medical X Rays58%

NuclearMedicine 21%

ConsumerProducts 16%

Occupational2%

Fallout 2%

Nuclear FuelCycle 1%

Medical & Dental X-Ray Diagnostic Procedures Examinations &

Dose Averages1985-1990 Average Annual Total Medical Exams: 1200 per 1000

1985-1990 Average Annual Total Dental Exams: 400 per 1000

1980 Average Annual Effective Dose Per patient examined: 50 millirem

Photo Credit: Procare4UPhoto Credit: Procare4U

Data Source: Los Alamos, 1995Data Source: Los Alamos, 1995

Effective Doses From Diagnostic X-Ray Procedures

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Millirem

Lower GI Tract

Angiography

ComputedTomographyUpper GI Tract

Urography

Dental Exams

Data Source: Los Data Source: Los Alamos, 1995Alamos, 1995

Nuclear Medicine ProceduresPer Annum

1985-1990 Average Number of Procedures

26 per 1000 persons1982 Average Effective Dose Per Patient

500 millirem

Data Source: Los Alamos, 1995

Effective Doses Per Diagnostic Nuclear Medicine Procedures

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

MilliremDose

CardiovascularBrainBoneThyroid ScanThyroid Uptake

CSPmedical.com

Data Source: Los Alamos, 1995

Mechanism of Cancer Induction

Damage to DNA Single strand breaks Double strand breaks Oxidative changes in

nucleotide bases DNA deletions; gene

and chromosome damage

BEIR VII CommitteeConclusions

Linear Non-Threshold model of cancer risk prediction validated

No evidence of a threshold below which no cellular damage occurs

Radiation Related Cancer Risk

______ Linear No Threshold Model

BEIR VII CommitteeConclusions

Significant lifetime excess risks were determined for 12 cancers, including lung, liver, breast, prostate, stomach, colon, thyroid and leukemia

Women Radiation related

cancer mortality risks for woman averaged 37.5% higher than for

men in the solid tumors

Excess Cases of Cancer per 100,000 Exposed Persons

(Exposed at 30, Attained Age 60)

Males Females

Excess Cases from Exposure to 100 mSv

800 1300

Number of Cases in the Absence of Exposure

45,500 36,900

Excess deaths from Exposure

410 610

Number of Deaths in the Absence of Exposure

22,100 17,500

ALL SOLID CANCER

Exposure in infants, as compared to adults, produces 3-4 times the cancer risk.

Small Children

Photo: Stepin.org

Female infants have almost double the risk of males.

Unlike BEIR V, BEIR VII contained both incidence & mortality figures.

At low doses, the risk, though increased, is small, one excess cancer in 100 exposed persons during their lifetime. Mortality, as opposed to incidence, would be about one-half.

Likelihood of Excess Cancer Vs. Cancer Incidence in 100 Unexposed

Persons over Lifetime

No impact of low levels on heart disease, in contrast to high doses.

No definite genetic effects in the offspring of A-bomb survivors.

Areas Identified for Further Research:

Adverse genetic impacts of radiation, emphasizing hereditary effects

Health impacts of radiation usage in medical practiceEpidemiology of high risk occupations, persons in

key areas of former Soviet Union & atomic bomb survivors

Molecular markers of radiation caused DNA damage

Specific role of radiation in development of cancer (tumors)

Correlation between radiation & conditions such as heart disease & stroke

Areas Identified for Further Research:

“A star, however willing,cannot help the moon.”

Chinese proverb