Why are Critical Infrastructure failures such an issue?

Lew ShortPrincipal

Counterthink Emergency Management

Cascading Consequences

http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2016/global-risks-landscape-2016/

Food Crisis

Water Crisis

Spread of Infectious Diseases

Social instability

Fiscal Crisis

Electricity Networks

http://australiancurriculumphysics.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Transformers-in-network-Origin-energy.jpg

Interdependency modelling

Major power disruptions in VictoriaOn 16 January 2007, bushfire in the State’s north caused an outage in the transmission line connecting Victoria to New South Wales.

 

This led to a transmission outage to South Australia. The imbalances this caused required the disconnection of more than 480,000 customers. All these events happened within four seconds. Problems during supply restoration resulted in the loss of supply to a further 205,000 customers. Supply was restored in approximately 4½ hours. The economic consequence of this incident was estimated to be $500 million.

Consequence Management/ Assurance

Scenario

A line of severe storms has moved through the State with potential for Epidemic Thunderstorm Asthma. A localised severe storm with winds in excess of 140km/h brings down at least 7 330KVA transmission towers outside Morwell. The transmission failure results in an imbalance in the system and automatic shut down is effected at 4.07pm on Sunday 11 Dec. Supply is cut to Melbourne and numerous regional towns. A spike in respiratory illness presentations is being advised throughout the health system and localised flooding is occurring.

Risk Rating

Coordinator DELWP Energy AEMO High

Consequences Mitigation Actions in Place

Responsible organisation

Confidence level for mitigation

Social

Built

Economic

Natural

Emergency

Consequence Management/ Assurance

Scenario

A line of severe storms has moved through the State with potential for Epidemic Thunderstorm Asthma. A localised severe storm with winds in excess of 140km/h brings down at least 7 330KVA transmission towers outside Morwell. The transmission failure results in an imbalance in the system and automatic shut down is effected at 4.07pm on Sunday 11 Dec. Supply is cut to Melbourne and numerous regional towns. A spike in respiratory illness presentations is being advised throughout the health system and localised flooding is occurring.

Risk Rating

Coordinator DELWP Energy AEMO High

Consequences Mitigation Actions in Place

Responsible organisation

Confidence level for mitigation

Social

Built

Economic

Natural

Emergency

“The embryos represent life, love. Everything. You put your whole life into it. Wanting it. So that's just your little miracle sitting there.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-01/sa-weather-families-call-fertility-clinics-after-blackout/7895002

Consequence Management

• The process of getting stakeholders together is as important as the output.

• Cascading consequences are not always evident when we operate in our solos.

• It is important to understand the “how” as opposed to the “why”. Get rid of likelihood!!

• The critical aspect is then asking the “So What”

ResilienceThe capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses and systems to

survive, adapt and thrive no matter what kinds of chronic stresses or acute shocks they

experience (100 Resilient Cities 2016)

It’s all about how we connect…

Christmas Wish List… some take aways

• Are you chasing the event or looking at the consequences • Awareness of Triggers: home, work, travel• Escalation Triggers: How will you receive notification of an

impending or actual crisis event. • Organisational incident, emergency and crisis management

triggers are, and importantly, the requirement to escalate this to the Crisis Management Team.

• Crisis Management Team availability • Updated Key Stakeholder contacts• Clarity of Key Stakeholder expectations• What are your lifelines?

Tipping Points❖ How many of us have experienced a

blackout?❖ Was this a critical life safety issue?❖ What is the tipping point for critical

infrastructure to become a lifeline issue…❖ time, duration, vulnerability,

acute health issues, underlying stresses and shocks, dependence…

❖ cross over with other events adding complexity and cascading consequences…

❖ Why are we seeing increased consequences?

Lew ShortCounterthink Emergency Management

T: @lewshort14E: counterthink@bigpond.com M: 0419 203 853

Counterthink Everything we do, we believe in challenging the status quo. We believe in thinking differently.

The way we challenge the status quo is by working with our clients to understand consequences & to co-design resilience that works.

Thanks