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Cascading Failures Across Interdependent Infrastructure Systems
Leonardo Dueñas-OsorioAssistant Professor
Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringRice University
Workshop on Seismic Risk and Management of Transportation Networks
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research CenterBerkeley, California
March 18, 2009
Presentation Outline
1. Overview of Cascading Failures
2. Multiple Infrastructure Systems
- Economic sector approach
- Physical network approach
3. Research Agenda
1. Cascading Failures Overview • Cascading Failures: Propagation of local failures as a
chain reaction that results in a disproportionately large portion of the system failed.
Blackouts
Natural Hazards
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (1)• Spatially co-located infrastructures
Physical-level approach
Economic-level approach
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (2)• Physical network approach
Data Requirements
- Topology
- Location
- Direction
- Strength
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (3)• Power transmission network
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (4)• Water distribution network
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (5)• Practical Interdependent adjacency
Pi | Wjij p)P Failure| WFailure P( =Matrix of conditional
probabilities of failure
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (6)• Seismic hazard for return period of 475 years
0 0.5 1 1.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PGA (g)
P(W
ater
DS
> d
si |
PG
A)
20% Connectivity loss50% Connectivity loss80% Connectivity loss
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (7)• Water distribution system fragility
Increased fragility
Pro
babi
lity
of E
xcee
ding
CL
0 0.5 1 1.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PGA (g)
P(W
ater
DS
> 2
0% C
L | P
GA
and
Pw
|p)
P(W Nf | PNf) = PW Nf
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (8)• Interdependent fragility curves at CL = 20%
Independent
P (
DS
> 2
0% C
L | P
GA
)P
roba
bilit
y of
Exc
eedi
ng C
L
0 0.5 1 1.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PGA (g)
P(W
ater
DS
> 2
0% C
L | P
GA
and
Pw
|p)
P(W Nf | PNf) = PW NfP(W Nf | PNf) = 0.2
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (8)• Interdependent fragility curves at CL = 20%
Independent
Interdependent
P (
DS
> 2
0% C
L | P
GA
)P
roba
bilit
y of
Exc
eedi
ng C
L
0 0.5 1 1.50
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
PGA (g)
P(W
ater
DS
> 2
0% C
L | P
GA
and
Pw
|p)
P(W Nf | PNf) = PW NfP(W Nf | PNf) = 0.2P(W Nf | PNf) = 0.5P(W Nf | PNf) = 1.0
2. Inter-dependent Cascades (8)• Interdependent fragility curves at CL = 20%
Independent
Interdependent
P (
DS
> 2
0% C
L | P
GA
)P
roba
bilit
y of
Exc
eedi
ng C
L
2. Inter-dependent cascades (9)• Time-evolving interdependent effects (I = 50%)
Wat
er S
yste
m C
L
2. Inter-dependent cascades (10)• Sensitive zone for interdependent effects
3. Research Agenda
• Incorporate transportation infrastructure in the interdependent analysis of utility systems.
• Develop theory of interdependent system reliability
• Study system decoupling to halt escalation of failures
• Determine optimal strategies for lifeline hardening
• Secure detailed infrastructure data availability
