VTA Next Network:Your Transit Choices

Agenda Item #7.1

About Jarrett Walker + Assoc

• Stanford PhD, Caltrain Advocate in the 80s.

• 22 Years Experience in Transit Network Design.

• >50 metro areas in 9 countries.• Author Human Transit.• Long track record as transit

explainer. HumanTransit.org• Successful designs in many cities

including San Antonio, Auckland, Minneapolis, LA Suburbs

• Houston redesign implemented August 2015

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Outline

• Where We Are Now

• What High Ridership Transit Looks Like

• The Ridership-Coverage Tradeoff

• Options for the Summer 2017 Network (BART opening)

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Timeline

March 2016 Choices Report Released

April 7, 2016 Alternative Network Concepts Released

April 14, 2016 Report on Alternative Concepts

May‐Aug 2016 Outreach on Alternative Concepts

Aug‐Oct 2016 Board Direction on Alternative Concepts

Dec. 2016 Recommended Draft '17 Network Released

Jan‐Feb 2017 Outreach on Draft Plan

March 2017 Final Recommended Plan Prepared

April 2017 Board Adopts Final Plan

Summer 2017 Next Network Service Begins

Fall 2017 BART Service Begins

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Where We Are Now

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Falling Behind Population Growth

Figure 1: Sant a Clara Count y populat ion, VTA Ridership and Revenue Hours, cumulat ive change 2000 - 2013

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Understanding Farebox RecoveryFarebox Recovery (Fare Revenue / Operating Cost) has three big elements

• From Cost to Service. (Operating Cost / Service Hour)– Labor contract, management, overhead

• From Service to Ridership (Riders / Service Hour)– Network Design, Customer Experience, Etc.

• From Ridership to Fare Revenue (Average Fare)– Fare policy, fare enforcement, etc.

Focus of this project.

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Why Focus on Local Bus?

Bus (Non-Express) 63%

Bus (Express) 4%

Light Rail 23%

ADA Paratransit 5%

Caltrain 2%

Special Events 1% ACE

1% Other 1%

VTA Operating Expenses by Mode, FY15

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The Ridership Recipe

IFyou want higher ridership, higher farebox return …

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How Ridership Happens

• By “ridership” we always mean “productivity,” riders per unit of service cost. This tracks with farebox recovery.

• Transit outcomes arise from “three legged stool”:– Service– Land Use– Street Design

• VTA controls only one leg!

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The Ridership Recipe

• High All-Day Frequency …• … following patterns of ...

– Density– Walkability– Linearity– Proximity

Why? Because this is how you bring the most useful destinations within reasonable travel time of the most people.

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Why Frequency Matters

Speed and reliability matter too, but frequency is the most neglected element. Frequency is a “cubed” benefit:

• Go when you want to go. • Make connections easily, so that you can get to more

places.• Less risk of being stranded by a reliability problem.

For trips <5 mi or so, frequency is the dominant element of travel time.

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Top performers are frequent …

Higher FREQUENCY

High

 PRO

DUCT

IVITY (Riders / O

p. Cost)

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Current All-day Frequency

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Current Ridership

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Why All-Day Matters• VTA ridership is not very peaked.• VTA service is more crowded midday than peak.• Lower income people, and people in dense urban centers,

rely mostly on all-day service.

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Limits of VTA Peak-Only Service

• Adding service only during rush hour creates three added costs for VTA.– Cost to own/store/maintain fleet that is used rarely.– Cost of very short shifts, esp. without part time drivers.– Costs of one-way operation: all vehicles have to come back.

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Land Use Drivers of Ridership

• Density• Walkability• Linearity• Proximity

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Density How many people are going to and from the area around each stop?

High Ridership

Lower Ridership

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Walkability Can the people around the stop walk to the stop?

High Ridership

Lower Ridership

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Linearity

High Ridership

Lower Ridership

Can transit run in straight lines that are useful to through-riders?

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Proximity

High Ridership

Lower Ridership

Does transit have to cross long low-ridership gaps?

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But is Ridership What You Want?The Ridership-Coverage Tradeoff

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The Ridership-Coverage Tradeoff

• Maximizing Ridership (and farebox return) requires thinking like a business.

• Businesses choose which markets to enter, based on where their product can succeed.

• This is not the same as meeting people’s needs or expectations.

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How should a transit agency allocate its resources?

Fictional Urban Area

Dots = residents and jobs

You have 18 buses

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Ridership Goal “Maximum Ridership”

Performance Measure: Productivity

Ridership relative to cost

RidershipNetwork

Think like a business, choosing which markets you will enter.

The straight lines offer density, walkability, and an efficient transit path, so you focus frequent, attractive service there.

Frequency’s payoff is “cubed”

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Coverage Goal “Some service for everyone”

Performance Measure: Availability

% of population and jobs near some service

Coverage Network

Think like a government service. Try to serve everyone, even those in expensive-to-serve places.

The result is more routes covering everyone, but less frequency, more complexity, and lower ridership.

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Both goals are important, … but they lead opposite directions!

Ridership Goal• “Think like a business.” • Focus where ridership

potential is highest.• Support dense and

walkable development.• Max. competition with cars• Maximum VMT reduction

Coverage Goal• “Think like a gov’t service.”• “Access for all”• Support suburban low-density

development.• Lifeline access for everyone.• Service to every member city

or electoral district.

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So it helps to choose a point on the spectrum …

Ridership Goal Coverage Goal

Existing System

~ 70% ridership

About 70% of your service is where it would be if ridership were VTA’s only network design goal.

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3 Alternative Concepts for ‘1770% Ridership? 80%? 90%?

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So it helps to choose a point on the spectrum …

Ridership Goal Coverage Goal

Con

cept

70

How much should VTA focus on ridership?  70%?  80%  90%?

Con

cept

80

Con

cept

90

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All Concepts Integrate with BART• All Fremont express lines are replaced by local

connections to BART at Milpitas and Berryessa.• Direct service from BART to:

– Most of inner and eastside San Jose.– San Jose Mineta Airport– Tasman LRT corridor: Great America, Lockheed area, Mtn View– Montague / Scott / Arques corridor: Jobsites in Santa Clara,

Sunnyvale, and Mtn View.– North 1st LRT to northern San Jose jobsites.– Winchester corridor: Santa Clara, Santana Row, Campbell.– Stevens Creek corridor to Cupertino.

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Not Shown but Still There

• VTA Express Network (100s) except lines to Fremont.• VTA Limited (300s) except where fully replaced by new

rapid-stop service. • Caltrain shuttles• ACE shuttles• FLEX service.

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Please Learn 4 Colors

These will be used consistently throughout the project.

Rapid. Every 15 min or better and widely spaced stops.Every 15 minutes. 

Every 30 minutes.

Every 60 minutes. 

Frequent Network

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Concept 70 (70% Ridership, 30% Coverage)

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Concept 80 (80% Ridership, 20% Coverage)

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Concept 90 (90% Ridership, 10% Coverage)

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Access to jobs …As you move toward a higher ridership network …• People and jobs near frequent transit go up …• People and jobs near any transit go down.

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Access by residents …As you move toward a higher ridership network …• People and jobs near frequent transit go up …• People and jobs near any transit go down.

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Visualizing Access

Mission College12 noon

Existing Network

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Visualizing Access

Mission College12 noon

Concept 70

(70% ridership)

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Visualizing Access

Mission College12 noon

Concept 80

(80% ridership)

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Visualizing Access

Mission College12 noon

Concept 90

(90% ridership)

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So How Many People Is That?

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Cautions

• These are not proposals!• They are illustrations of a policy choice.• They are starting points for defining the final network.• View these at high altitude. Not all micro details are

meaningful yet.• Public reaction to these concepts will help you decide

where you want to be on the ridership-coverage spectrum.

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Outreach

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Timeline

March 2016 Choices Report Released

April 7, 2016 Alternative Network Concepts Released

April 14, 2016 Report on Alternative Concepts

May‐Aug 2016 Outreach on Alternative Concepts

Aug‐Oct 2016 Board Direction on Alternative Concepts

Dec. 2016 Recommended Draft '17 Network Released

Jan‐Feb 2017 Outreach on Draft Plan

March 2017 Final Recommended Plan Prepared

April 2017 Board Adopts Final Plan

Summer 2017 Next Network Service Begins

Fall 2017 BART Service Begins

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Discussion

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