The U.S. Elections and the Growing Appeal of Anti-establishment Politics in America and Europe

The U.S. Elections and the Growing

Appeal of Anti-establishment

Politics in America and Europe Richard WikeDirector, Global Attitudes Research

@RichardWikeRome, October 25, 2016

October 25, 2016 2

Pew Research Center

• Established 1996

• Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, foundations

• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington

• Since 2002, we have surveyed in 93 countries

• www.pewresearch.org

www.pewresearch.org

2016 U.S. POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

Sept. 18, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 3

After Tightening, Clinton Pulling Ahead Again

October 25, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 4

Note: Data represent averages across multiple national polls from July 1, 2016 to Oct. 21, 2016.

Source: RealClear Politics.

45

49

4042

20

60

July 1, 2016 October 21, 2016

%

Trump

Clinton

2016 Republican National Convention

2016 Democratic National Convention First presidential

debate

Second presidential debate

Third presidential debate


In your own words, what is the main reason you support … (%)

33%

27

26

10

8

7

19

10

4

Defense

He is not Clinton

He is for American people and values

His issue/policy positions

Political outsider/will bring change

He tells it like it is/ His personality

Immigration

Economic policy

Republican

For Many Voters, Opposition to the Other Candidate is a

Main Factor in Their Vote

Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey.

Donald Trump

32%

32

22

12

5

4

3

She is not Trump

Democrat

Her issue/policy positions

Experienced/will get things done

Her temperament/ personality

Woman president

She is for American people and values

Hillary Clinton

2016 U.S. Voting Population Most Diverse Ever


Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. White, black and Asian includes only non-Hispanics. Hispanics are of any race. American Indians, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders and multi-race Americans not shown.

Source: For 2000-2012, Pew Research Center tabulations of the Current Population Survey, November Supplements. For 2016, Pew Research Center estimates based on American Community Survey (2008-2014), November Current Population Survey (2008-2015) and the Puerto Rican Community Survey (2008-2014).

% among eligible voters

78% 75 73 71 69

12%12 12 12 12

7% 8 9 11 12

2% 3 3 4 4

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Hispanic

Black

White

Asian

(projected)

September 2016 7www.pewresearch.org

Millennials Will Make

Up a Larger Share of

the Electorate

Eligible voters by generation, 1996-2016

Note: Eligible voters are U.S. citizens ages 18 and older. Millennials refers to population ages 18 to 35 as of 2016.

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 1996-2014 Current Population Survey November Supplement and the April 2016 Current Population Survey

October 25, 2016 8www.pewresearch.org

Obama’s Job Approval on the Upswing, but Highly Partisan

34

13

88 88

6353

0

100

2009 2011 2013 2015

Republican

Democrat

Independent

17

38 39

53

42

6456

55

41

53

0

100

2009 2011 2013 2015

Disapprove

Approve

Source: Pew Research Center Survey, conducted August 9-16, 2016.

__ of the way Obama is handling his job

Note: Don’t know responses not shown.

Approve of the way Obama is handling his job

%%

2016 2016

IN U.S. & EU MANY SEE THEIR COUNTRIES IN

DECLINE



Voters Diverge on How U.S. Has Changed

Source: Pew Research Center Survey, conducted August 9-16, 2016.

Compared with 50 years ago, life for people like you in America today is…

Note: Based on registered voters. Don’t know responses not shown.


Americans, Europeans Pessimistic about Economic Future

Note: Percentages are regional medians. Europe median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom.Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes Survey.

When children today in our country grow up, do you think they will be __ financially than their parents?

35%

33

24

44

60

64

58%

56

51

32

32

28

Latin America

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Middle East

U.S.

Europe

Better offWorse off


Nearly Half of Americans Say U.S. Is Less Important as a

World Leader Than It Was a Decade Ago

Compared with 10 years ago, the U.S. role as a world leader today is …

Note: Other/Don’t know responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted April 12-19, 2016.

28

21

39

46

27

31

0

60

1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016

Less important

and powerful

More important

and powerful

As important

and powerful

%

Many Europeans See Waning Global Influence


Do you think our country plays a more important role in the world today compared to 10 years ago, a less important role or about as important a role in the world as it did 10 years ago?

65%

52

50

46

40

33

30

28

28

11

15%

23

28

30

37

29

45

43

20

25

17%

19

21

23

20

34

23

28

45

62

Greece

Italy

Spain

France

UK

Hungary

Netherlands

Sweden

Poland

Germany

Less important As important More important

PERCEIVED THREATS AND VIEWS OF MINORITIES


Americans and Europeans Agree: ISIS Is Top Threat


Note: European median based on 10 European countries.

% saying each is a major threat to their country


Many Believe Refugees Will Increase Likelihood of Terrorism

Refugees in our country will …

76%

71

61

61

60

57

55

52

46

40

59

18%

15

36

36

28

40

33

41

51

55

36

Hungary

Poland

Germany

Netherlands

Italy

Sweden

Greece

UK

France

Spain

MEDIAN

Not increase the

likelihood of terrorism

Increase the

likelihood of terrorism


Right More Worried Than Left About Refugee Threat


Note: Only statistically significant differences shown.

A large number of refugees leaving countries such as Iraq and Syria is a major threat to the country


Most Say Muslims in Their Country Want to Be Distinct

Do you think most Muslims in our country today want to adopt our country’s customs and way of life or do you think they want to be distinct from the larger society?

Note: Volunteered category “Both” not shown.


78%

76

68

61

61

54

53

52

50

45

58

11%

16

24

27

32

31

42

43

43

33

32

Greece

Hungary

Spain

Italy

Germany

UK

Netherlands

France

Sweden

Poland

MEDIAN

Adopt customsBe distinct

September 2016 19www.pewresearch.org

Sharp Divides in Voters’ Views of Race, Immigration,

Muslims in the U.S. % of registered voters who say …

Note: Based on registered voters.

Source: Surveys conducted June 7-July 15, 2016 and August 9-16, 2016.

A LACK OF FAITH IN INSTITUTIONS



Trust in U.S. Government Has Been Declining for YearsTrust the federal government to do what is right just about always/most of the time

Note: From 1976-2014 the trend line represents a three-survey moving average.Sources: Pew Research Center Surveys, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and CNN Polls.

0

20

40

60

80

58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12 15

%

Americans Trust Military and Scientists but Not Media,

Business Leaders or Elected Officials


Source: Pew Research Center Survey conducted May 10-June 16, 2016.

33%

24

21

13

13

5

4

3

46%

60

55

53

39

33

37

24

15%

12

18

27

32

40

44

54

5%

3

4

7

14

21

14

19

The military

Medical scientists

Scientists

Religious leaders

The news media

Business leaders

Elected officials

A great deal A fair amount Not too much No confidence

School principals and superintendents

How much confidence, if any, do you have in __ to act in the best interests of the public?


Which statement best describes your views about the future of the European Union?

68%

65

47

44

43

40

39

39

38

35

42

18%

25

38

29

25

35

26

21

39

27

27

8%

6

13

24

26

17

21

34

9

30

19

Greece

UK

Sweden

Netherlands

Germany

Hungary

Italy

France

Poland

Spain

MEDIAN

Some powers should be returned to national govtsDivision of powers should remain the sameNational govts should transfer more powers to EU

Disagreement on ‘Ever Closer’ Union


MANY WARY OF GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT


Many Europeans Focused on Their Own Country’s

Problems


Note: Volunteered categories “Both and “Neither” not shown.

Our country should …

Ideological Right More Likely to Say Focus on Own Problems


Note: Statistically significant differences in bold.

Our country should deal with its own problems and let other countries deal with their own problems as best they can

Americans Wary of Global Involvement


Source: Pew Research Center Survey, conducted April 12-19, 2016.

U.S should …

5%

Don't know

Deal with

own

problems/

let others

deal with

theirs as

best they

can57%

Help other

countries

deal with

their

problems 37%

De Ind RepR-D

Diff

% % %

Help other countries

48 33 32 -16

Deal with own problems

47 63 62 +15

Americans More Skeptical about Economic Engagement


Global economic engagement is a __

24%

25

24

29

34

39

45

27

44

57

32

49

72%

71

70

64

56

56

51

48

44

35

56

44

Netherlands

Sweden

Germany

UK

Hungary

Spain

France

Poland

Italy

Greece

MEDIAN

U.S.

Bad thing because it lowers

wages and costs jobsGood thing because it creates

new markets, growth


Americans Favor Free Trade Deals, But Support is Slipping


Source: Pew Research Center Survey, August 9-16, 2016.

Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a __ for the United States

5248

59 58

51 50

34

41

3033

3942

0

100

Good thing

Bad thing

%

20162015201420112009


Republicans Turn Negative On Free Trade Agreements

% of registered voters who say free trade agreements have been a __ for the U.S. …

Notes: Based on registered voters. Don’t know responses not shown.

Source: Survey conducted August 9-16, 2016.

Among Republican and Republican-leaning

registered voters

Among Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters

57

42

55 51

3231

48

3639

61

0

75

2009 2016

Bad thing

Good thing

4851

6055

58

37 39

30

36 34

0

75

2009 2016

Bad thing

Good thing

% %

October 25, 2016 31

All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org

Global Attitudes: www.pewglobal.org

@pewglobal

@RichardWike

www.pewresearch.org

http://www.pewresearch.org/

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The U.S. Elections and the Growing Appeal of Anti-establishment Politics in America and Europe