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The Opportunities and Challenges for Livestock and Fish R&D in Asia
Steve Staal
High Level Policy Dialogue on Investment in Agricultural Research for Sustainable Development in Asia and the PacificBangkok 8-9 Dec. 2015
Outline of the Presentation
Trends in livestock and fish in Asia Implications and opportunities for
smallholders Constraints Framework for investment
Animal agriculture to 2050: TRENDS
GLOBAL TRENDS:Livestock demand and production are increasing rapidly in developing countries
• Unprecedented rising demand for livestock commodities will continue over the coming 5 decades
• Where and how most livestock commodities are produced, sold and consumed is changing significantly
Gains in meat consumption in developing countries are outpacing those of developed countries
1980 1990 2002 2015 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
developingdeveloped
Milli
on m
etric
tonn
es
FAO 2006
Rising per capita consumption in Asia
2000 2010 2020 2030 20500
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
PoultryMeatPigMeatMuttonGoatMeatMilkEggsBovineMeat
Livestock product kg/capita in Asia to 2050
Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model
Asian demand doubling to 2050
BovineM
eat Eggs
Milk
MuttonGoatMeat
PigMea
t
PoultryMea
t0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
20102050
BovineMeat Eggs MuttonGoatMeatPigMeat PoultryMeat0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
20102050
Demand for milk in Asia will double to 2050 from 2010 levels
Demand for poultry, mutton and bovine meat will more than double
Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model
Imports into Asia will rise
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
PoultryMeatPigMeatMuttonGoatMeatEggsBovineMeat
Particularly for pork and poultry
Enahoro 2015, IFPRI IMPACT model
Global 1987 Global 2012 Asia 1987 Asia 20120
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Crops Livestock
In $
2004
/06
billi
ons
Share of value of agricultural production shifting to livestock
Source: Delgado (2014)
• The share of value of production in Asia has grown to nearly half of the global total, and the share of livestock in value of agricultural production had also increased significantly, both globally and in Asia.
Demand for fish growing
Sources: Phillips: WRI (2014) FAO (2012a), FAO (2012b), FAO (2013), FAO (2014).
Million tons
Capture fisheries stagnating. Aquaculture has emerged to meet fish demand
Supply of farmed fish needs to grow rapidly
Sources: Phillips: Production data 1961–2010: FAO (2014a), FAO (2014b).
Aquaculture production must more than double by 2050 to satisfy projected fish demand
Million tons
Nearly 90 percent of aquaculture production is in AsiaTons (2012)
Importance of fish in ASFs in Asia
Various sources:BMGF, FAO and ILRI
Smallholders still dominatelivestock production in many countries of Asia
Region (definition of ‘smallholder’)
% production by smallholder livestock farms
Beef Chicken meat
Sheep/goat meat
Milk Pork Eggs
East Africa(≤ 6 milking animals)
60-90
Bangladesh (< 3ha land)
65 77 78 65 77
India(< 2ha land)
75 92 92 69 71
Vietnam (small scale)
80
Philippines (backyard)
50 35
Livestock multiplies rural incomes
Rural income multipliers are higher for livestock than for other commodities and higher even than non-agricultural activities.
Steinfeld et al. 2006
Large productivity gaps persist between rich and poor countries, including in Asia
Some developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
Factors are combination of feeds, animal health, and genetics, combined with poor management
Importance of fish for the diets of the poor
• Millions of people, particularly women and children, suffer from deficiencies of vitamin A, iron, and zinc
• Fish, including small indigenous or farmed fish in household ponds provide a ready source
Livestock sub-Sector in Asia: Issues
50-92% production from smallholders in mixed systems The growing demand thus represents large opportunities for
smallholders and rural development
However
Complexity from coexistence of a range of production systems Large productivity gaps Mostly informal wet markets (up to 80%) Investment generally lower than in crops
Aquaculture in Asia: Issues
Large and growing opportunities for farmed fish to address the key micronutrients and protein needs among poor consumers
Asia is the center of aquaculture
However, constraints to involve the poor in aquaculture remain
Limited access to resources Availability and high price of external inputs Capital investment Poorly performing markets Access to improved genetics
Investing in research for livestock in Asia: the next round of CRPs with partners
The new Livestock CGIAR Collaborative Research Program features four research pillars, all linked to national partner programs and priorities
1. Animal Health
2. Animal Genetics
3. Animal Feeds and Forages
4. Livelihoods and ASF Agri-food Systems
Cross cutting programs on Gender, Capacity Development and Nutrition
Investing in research for fish in Asia: the next round of CRPs with partnersThe new Fish CGIAR Collaborative Research Program features three research pillars, all linked to national partner programs and priorities
1. Integrated Sustainable Aquaculture
2. Sustaining Smallscale Fisheries
3. Fish Valuechains and Nutrition
Cross cutting programs on Gender and Capacity Building
Summary and Conclusions
• Demand for livestock and fish in Asia is outpacing that for staple crops
• Both comprise key components of food and nutritional security and support rural development
• Production is unlikely to be able to match that demand, threatening food and nutritional security
• Important to correct the imbalance of public investment to reflect the changing shares in Ag GDP and demand
• A strong partnership framework of national and international researchers is available and should be leveraged
CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world.
CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish
livestockfish.cgiar.org
Thank you for your attention