The Foundation Pillars for Change: India Case Study

www.FoundationPillars.in

© Kiran V. Patel: Laxmibhen Limited: Foundation Pillars for Change - 2014 2

An introduction and profile � Kiran V. Patel

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What lessons can be learned ...


“The Foundation Pillars for Change” �


Will the 21st century be India’s Century?

• We have the “Foundations and successes to achieve and maintain

India as one of the most progressive industrial and agricultural

economies � with an enlightened social and political system � with

the most content (well-being/happy) citizens’, where peoples from

around the world would want to visit, stay and live”

or

• One where we had the opportunity but something “happened which

was beyond our control”, or we blame the “corrupt politicians and

administrators”, or we take the fatalistic approach of “what will be

will be . . .”, “it was our destiny . . .”, “it was written . . .”, the popular

characteristic of inevitability

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If we were to see ourselves in ~35 years time � in a generation


Governance �

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2012 National Election Watch

2012 Presidential

Election

543 MPs Lok Sabha

227 (of 238) MPsRajya Sabha

4,835 MPs & MLA’s

162 (30%) criminal records

41 (18%) pending cases

1,448 (30%)criminal cases

14 with serious charges



Rape, murder, attempt to murder, kidnapping, robbery, extortion, etc.

‘India: A Portrait’ by Patrick French in 2011

100% All MPs less than 30 years of age are hereditary

>66% MPs aged under 40 are hereditary

27 MPs are ‘hyper-hereditary’(where several family members who have made a career out of politics)

19 In the Congress partyAre we becoming a Kleptocracy?

Our politicians are losing respect.

There is a trust deficit.

Our democracy is therefore, more impressive in form than substance.


How can we get closer to the ‘electorate’ and the ‘citizen’? How do we provide ‘feedback’?

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President

Prime Minister

Minister Minister

Junior Minister

IAS/Category One/A

State Representatives

Panchayats

Citizens

MP’s

Minister

Vision, Aspiration, Role-Model‘Voice of the Citizen’

Vision Execution, Leader & Statesman‘Voice of the Electorate’

Policy Definition & Implementation‘Voice of the Electorate’

Analysis, Planning, Implementation, Delivery, Post-Implementation

Local support. Community contribution & feedback

Contribution, requirements & feedback

Local alignment & tailoring of Policy Definition & Implementation‘Voice of the Electorate’


Primary Education �Increased attendance, better teaching & outcomes

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Population 1,200 million

Illiterate 432 m (36%)

Out of school children

8.5 m

45

7 yr.

74% in 2011

Primary

Secondary &Vocational

Undergraduate, Postgraduate &Research

20 States 51% unrecognised


Secondary Education �Industry supported vocational training

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Secondary Schools Tested

304

Sub-Standard Facilities(33% below standard)

265

(87%)

College Enrolment

2013 2018 Plan

2020 Wish

India 13% 21% 30%

Brazil 34%

China 23%

+2.3 million 15-24 yr. olds p.a.

Indian Workforce 2010 2030

Looking for Work 749m 962m

Potentially Unemployable 423m

340 unaccredited private technical schools


Higher / University Education �Leading edge research & creative environment

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Primary

Secondary &Vocational

Undergraduate, Postgraduate &Research

Of 31,000 higher education institutions

4,532 (~15%: 1 in 7)unaccredited

2,600 Doctorates in 2 years �

For subjects not taught!

9 of 17 Private Medical colleges lacked

Infrastructre: Staffing, equipment, clincial

materials, beds etc�


Healthcare �Increase rural primary healthcare staff & facilities

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• US$33 p.a / citizen

• ~65 year life span

2009 UNDP HDI 2011 UNDP HDI

128th 134th out of 187 nations

Per 1000 citizens Physicians Nurses

India 0.7 1.3

World avg. 1.5 3.3

More Industrialised 1.8 1.8

Shortfall by 2015 350,000

Shortfall by 2025 700,000

Urban Rural

Physicians 66% 34%

Healthcare Facilities 88% 12%

Patients 30% 70%

• India needs an additional:• ~3m beds to reach SE Asian avg.• ~2m beds to meet WHO levels.


Healthcare �Affordability, Accessibility & Prevention

• 65% citizens with major health problems are indebted for life

– 40% citizens sold assets or borrowed money for healthcare• Of which, 24% below poverty line due to hospitalisation

• National Health Insurance Programme

– US$1bn over 5 years from 2007: 15m families, 4,384 hospitals in 26 states

• 70% Hospitals and 40% Beds in private sector

– Predominantly Urban – so Urban poor have greater challenges

• Lifestyle Diseases

– Diabetics capital of the World – 1 in 5 in the world is Indian• 41m sufferers increasing to ~70m in 2025

– 2.2m with TB & 2-3.1m with HIV/AIDS

– 30 obese and ~70m overweight citizens• 1 in 5 men & 1 in 6 women in some areas

– Alcohol & Drugs

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Information Technology ,Telecommunications & Medicine, coupled with ‘frugal / jugaard’ type innovation had led to, and must be accelerated, to

provide India centric, globally applicable solutions.


Law & Order – The Judiciary:Reform of the Law & legal processes (efficient)

1. “Money buys justice”

2. “Justice delayed is justice denied”

3. “Laws are not fully enforced or enforceable”

• 40% unfilled Judicial staff vacancies

– 300 Judges

• Indian has 10.5 Judges per million citizens

– Only Guatemala, Nicaragua & Kenya have lower ratio• USA & UK = 150 per million

– Supreme Court suggested 50 Judges per million citizens• 125,000 Judges dealing with 300 million cases by 2030

• Average length of cases 15 yrs – planned to reduce to 3 yrs.

– Fast Track courts wish for 3 months!

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Total Pending Cases ~30m

Districst & sub-ordinate courts

~25m

Criminal cases ~18m

Civil cases ~0.75m

Increased daily court hours from current 5 hrs. will begin to take off some pressure.


Law & Order – The Judiciary:Crime deterrent / preventative sentencing parameters

• Corruption & Crime in:

– Society

– Law Enforcement

– Legislature

– Judiciary

• Simpler, enforceable laws

• Incarceration should be incarceration

• Prison should be a deterrence

– Avoid revisiting

• Deterrent based sentencing

– Laws of Confiscation

• Family & Associates

• Burden of proof on defendant

• All citizens are Equal

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Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index (CPI)

Indian Ranking

2012 94th out of 177

2011 95th out of 183

2010 87th

2001 71st

A necessary mechanism for legal & social change. Need to be tough on crime, and tough on the causes of crime.


Law & Order – Law Enforcement & Internal Security:Transform to a more respected professional service

• Central & State Law Enforcement: Significant differences:– Capabilities, Competencies & Capacities

• Multiple Agencies provides scope for simplification– 7 Internal Security & 9 Central Agencies

– Some newly established following major incidents e.g. NIA

• ~380,000 unfilled vacancies

• Begin to recruit a higher calibre of individual; a new batch of officers – Consistent approaches that provide our officers with:

• Single central authority for senior staff

• Working hours and schedules

• Safety and defensive equipment

• Armaments and weapons

• Telecommunications, surveillance and other necessary equipment.

• Improved infrastructure of police stations

• Improved housing for all law enforcement officers

• More appropriate salary, performance and service related public recognition

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Build on this good work, and better support the hard working and honest individuals and aim to help them transform their service.

2011 NCRB & Human Rights Watch

Per 100,000 citizens

Per 100 sq. km.

India 137 52.4

Global Avg. 350


Law & Order – Law Enforcement & Internal Security:Guns, Drugs & Sexual violence must be reduced

• Increased general & commercial crime, violent gun & gang related crimes, crimes against women, student and farmer suicides, domestic violence and dowry deaths, child abuse, communal and sectarian violence– Symptomatic of India’s failure to develop evenly in either social or economic terms.

• Majority of drug addicts are between the ages of 15-35– Many of them unemployed and frustrated by unmet expectations

• Haryana High Court in 2009, suggested that 75% of its youth, 1 in 3 students, and 65% of all families had direct experience of addiction in some form, and 30% of its prison population of 18,000 have a drug related history or crime

• ~8,000 government liquor stores operating in Punjab– According to India's comptroller, liquor consumption per person in Punjab rose 59% between 2005-2011.

• In one village, of the school's 656 students, ~70% have lost a parent to drugs, in another village there are 48 hard-core addicts in a village of 2,000 inhabitants

• India had ~70m drug addicts across all socio-economic groups according to a 2006 estimate

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Law & Order – Law Enforcement & Internal Security:Our aim must be 24 x 7 safety for all

• Terrorism, insurgency and secessionist movements

– India “is one of the world’s most terrorism-afflicted countries and one of the most persistently targeted countries by transnational terrorist groups”.

– To November 2011, over 1,550 Naxalites/LWE incidents resulted in over 500 deaths as compared to 2010, when 2,006 Naxalites/LWE incidents resulted in over 93 deaths

– ‘Red Belt’, it has spread to 20 of 28 Indian States and roughly 200 of the 626 district• Contain 85% of nation’s coal resources,; constitutes more than 70% of current

needs for electricity generation

– Are rooted in poverty, social inequality and ethnic tensions• ‘a sense of injustice, related particularly to gross inequality, can be a good ground for

rebellion, even bloody rebellion’

• A comprehensive & holistic approach to provide:

– social, economic and infrastructure development

– basic education, healthcare and social services

– More effective democratic representation and improved governance

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Remove the criminal and corrupt elements out of Indian society, until they have reformed


Law & Order – Law Enforcement & Internal Security:Penalty for crime must be greater than the benefits

• India has world’s highest #un-sentenced prisoners

– ~70.1% (~232,400-250,000)• ~2,069 incarcerated for more than five years

• Nigeria comes second with 64%, followed by Turkey, Kenya and Mexico, with the USA at 21% and Brazil at 33%.

• Need to significantly increase Indian prison capacity

• Provide humane accommodation for existing inmates and accommodate potential significant increase

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2011Prison Population

Rank Per 100,000 citizens

Prison Density

USA ~2.24m 1st 773

China 1.64m 2nd 118

Russia 0.701m 3rd 615 150%(2nd)

Brazil 0.549m 4th 193

India 0.357m 5th 30(152nd of 155)

139%(3rd)

Kenya 285% (Highest)

South Africa

138.6%(4th)

Law & Order: Judiciary & Law Enforcement must efficiently & effectively do what they are

tasked to.


National Security �Don’t judge by size alone!

• A nuclear weapon, ballistic missile and satellite launching nation

• A regional power, with the 4th largest standing (voluntary) army in the world

– ~3 million Armed Services Personnel• ~1.325m active

• ~1.747m reserve

• Defend ~3.29 million sq. km. area, ~14,100km border, ~7,500km coastline & ~14,500km of rivers and waterways

• 9th highest military spender in the world

– ~US$44.28 billion in 2011 – excluding Nuclear spend

– Expected to be the 4th largest spender by 2020

– ~2% of GDP on the military • Without accounting for expenditure on defence pensions, paramilitary forces and the

defence ministry

– World’s largest arms importer• 10% of all global armament sales

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National Security �Change of how conflict created, addressed & resolved

Potential Priorities

• Long range precision guided mobile munitions and weapons systems

• Defensive and offensive asymmetric warfare capabilities

• Secure networks, communications and information management systems for all services and equipment

• Singular command capability through fully integrated combat systems across all services for each theatre of operation

• Stealth, night and all weather condition operability for all services

• Three dimensional deep blue water naval capability

• Increased indigenous development and manufacture of all critical and technological equipment

• Significantly improved military intelligence

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Move towards a more developed 21st century military doctrine: Seeing growth in asymmetric warfare and the increased need for combined

services single command theatre operations.


National Security �Rapidly resolve the “Hollowness” of Armed Forces

• By 2011 figures, we are by far the lowest military spender per active armed personnel, amongst the top 10 nations

• Army Chief Vijay Kumar Singh letter to PM in March 2012

– Entire tank fleet did not have sufficient ammunitions

– Air defences are "97 per cent obsolete“

– Elite forces are "woefully short" of "essential weapons

– “The state of the major (fighting) arms i.e. mechanized forces, artillery, air defence, infantry and special forces, as well as the engineers and signals, is indeed alarming“

– Major gaps in the army’s ability to conduct surveillance & Inability to fight at night.

• In January 2010, General Deepak Kapoor, the then army chief had affirmed that 80% of our tanks were night blind, which effectively means unfit for war

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Is a slow procurement process and lack of urgency among bureaucrats solely to blame?


National Security � NavyAccelerate to achieve 3D marine warfare capability

• Monitoring the Indian Ocean is a challenge as at least 34 nations border this Ocean

– Predominantly all are developing or less industrialised nations

• Stealth, surprise and firepower are usually the characteristics of successful naval warfare

• ‘Maritime capability perspective plan for 2012-2027’

– 150 major warships

– At least 6 additional submarines

– 7 stealth frigates.

– Number of sailors to increase from 48,000 to over 60,000 by 2015

– Number of officers to increase from 8,200 to over 11,000 by 2015

• Need to develop Nuclear marine capabilities

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We are one of 6 countries to operate aircraft carriers and submarines; however, we need to be ones who also design and build them.


National Security � Air ForceReplacing faster than decommissioning

• Operate ~2,500 aircraft and ~850 helicopters

– MIG’s, Sukoi’s & Hawk’s

– Operating with 33 squadrons against a target of 45

– Tejas, Kiran and Marut experiences

• Mirage

• T50 FGFA

– F-35 Lightning II (heavier, cheaper version of the F-22)

• UAVs

• Multi-Role Transports

• High Altitude Rapid Response support craft

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We need to accelerate our indigenous developments to deliver leading edge air superiority


National Security � Other ServicesImproved Indigenisation, intelligence & integration

• Mobile multiple nuclear delivery systems

– BrahMos Aerospace Agni-V

– Triad of Air, land and sea (surface & sub-sea)

• Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) & Anti-Satellite Weapons

– Advanced Air Defence (AAD) & Prithvi Air Defence (PAD)

• Military PSUs, R&D & DRDO need to significantly improve the efficiency & effectiveness and OTIF ‘delivery’ performance

• Military intelligence has been weak at best

– 1962, 1999, 2001 & 2008

• Single command overt and covert Human, Communications, Signal, Imagery and Electronic Intelligence

• Defensive & pro-active Cyber warfare capabilities & competencies

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How to effectively spend US$100 bn over next 10 years:Getting ‘value-for-money’ & ‘bang-for-bucks’!


Infrastructure – Integrated Planning & Implementation:Economic ‘arteries’ and ‘organ’ symbiosis

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Infrastructure - Road, Rail, Air & Sea Ports and Cities:Need to plan for and service population growth

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2000 2001 2005 2011 Census

2030 2050

Indian Population

1.05 bn

1.14 bn 1.24 bn 1.6 - 1.7 bn

Urban ~325 m ~575 m ~875 m

Avg. Density (citizens/sq. km.)

325 382 571

2.4% of world’s surface area & 17% of population


Infrastructure - Energy & Electricity:Economically reach ~300m and provide for growth

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2012 2016 – 17 2021 – 22 2050

Consumption / Demand

~193 GW ~218 GW ~298 GW 600 – 1200 GW


Infrastructure – Water: Reduce rainwater dependency.Recycling, availability & accessibility for all

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2.4% of world’s surface area, 17% of population & 4% of water.We will not be able to meet the demand & will be severely ‘water-stressed’

1951 1990 2010 2025 2050

Indian Population 0.361 bn 0.837 bn 1.22 bn 1.6 - 1.7 bn

All without Water 230 m

Urban without water 28 m (10%)

Rural without water 202 m (27%)

Clean water demand (bm3) 519 693 942 1,422

Water availability (m3 per citizen) 5,177 1,588 ↓36% ↓60%

89% of consumption

7% of consumption70% of waste water

4% of consumption50% citizens (~682m) no sanitation


Infrastructure – Agriculture: ‘Evergreen Revolution’Professionalism & significantly increased productivity

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158 million hectares Arable land: 50% rain dependent.“National policies leading to ecological & economic suicide.”

30% - 80% loss Multiple (5-7) Intermediaries

Rice Yield ration

Kg. Rice/m3

Kg. Cereal/m3

India 1 0.2–0.26 0.32–0.42

China 3 0.4–0.52 0.96–1.26

Vietnam 2

• Ownership & Behavioural– Only one of 15 major agricultural nations with reduced farm sizes

• 80% Farm holdings < 2 Hectares

• 62% Farm holdings < ½ Hectare

• Structural & Institutional– Water Pumps - Water table up to 300ft reducing @3 ft/p.a.

– Education, soil & financial management etc.

• Technical & Natural– Tools & techniques leading to poor productivity


Environment: Enhanced protection & respect for all life

• India has one of the most widely diverse environments that few others on Earth can experience

• Home to very diverse and rich wildlife

– 60% of the world’s tigers, 65% elephants, 80% Asian rhinos & 100% of Asian lions

– Over 172 endangered species

– 2,356 recorded species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles • 18.4% are endemic only in India

• 10.8% are threatened

– In 2012 discovered new to science species

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Pollution Deforestation Mineral extraction Wildlife protection

1952 - ⅓ land under forest2012 - 23.8% under forest but

2.7% of Tree cover


Concluding Comments �Need a ‘Top-Down’ and a ‘Bottom-Up’ change

• Change in values, behaviours, ethics, ‘ways of working’ and ‘ways of living’

– Multi-generational change

• New breed of Leadership and Statesmanship with Vision

– Individuals who are proven natural leaders

– Command true respect across the nation

– Role models and have the characteristics, charm, charisma and intelligence

• Must provide all avenues for girls and women to leverage and build on their skills, interests, competencies and capabilities

– Leverage all our assets – All Citizens

• “Men make history and not the other way round. In periods when there is no leadership, society stands still. Progress occurs when courageous, skilful leaders seize the opportunity to change things for the better.” Harry S. Truman

• “True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.” Clarence Darrow

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Thank You

Kiran V. Patel

100% of net income goes to Charitable Causes

Government & Nonprofit

The Foundation Pillars for Change: India Case Study