FOUNDATIONAL FIRST FIVE (FFF)

Lessons from the Data, Cost to the System,Approaches to ImproveLuis Crouch, RTINational Forum on theState of the Ugandan Child27-28 Oct 2015

Speke Resort, Munyonyo, Uganda

Structure and Summary1. Present data on low completion of P7

– The problems are not what most people think they are– The problems have their foundations in a “dysfunctional” situation in the

early years– Problem is common to many countries, others are solving it

2. Suggestions for fixing the problem3. Costs and financial benefits of fixing the problem

– Costs per student may go up, but costs per completer of P7 would go down

4. Spending is not enough: need systemic improvement

5. A reminder of the social benefits– Specially of girls’ continuing to lower and upper secondary– In terms of, mostly, health outcomes

3

Three key messages1. Improve retention through and beyond P7

– Because of big social and economic impact especially on health outcomes– But retention has to start with a stronger base of early childhood and early grades

• There is huge wastage now (repetition early, dropping out later)

2. Improving retention requires a package, not just one thing– Improved teacher skills in “subject matter pedagogy”– Better/more books– Better supervision and accountability– And others: a “package” similar to USAID’s SHRP or GPE

3. The key issue of interest is cost per P7 completer– Even if cost per enrolled student goes up by 10%-15% or so, cost per completer can

do down by 10%-15%, because you have less waste

4

What do the most basic numbers tell us?

P1

P2

P3

P4

P4

P6

P7

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Enrollment

5

Enrollment Pyramid in any recent year

P5

What do the most basic numbers tell us?

P1

P2

P3

P4

P4

P6

P7

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Enrollment

6

Enrollment Pyramid in any recent year

What is the size of the job?

P5

What do the most basic numbers tell us?

P1

P2

P3

P4

P4

P6

P7

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Enrollment

7

Enrollment Pyramid in any recent year

What is the size of the job?

This big? P5

But what happens if we overlay the population?

P1

P2

P3

P4

P4

P6

P7

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Popluation of appropriate age Enrollment

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Enrollment with Population Overlay

What do we notice?

Compare population and enrollment carefully.

P5

But what happens if we overlay the population?

P1

P2

P3

P4

P4

P6

P7

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Popluation of appropriate age Enrollment

9

Enrollment with Population Overlay

This small?

What is the size of the job now?

P5

So what is going on here? Why is there so much enrollment compared to population in

grade 1?

And even in the other grades?

Could it be under-age and over-age enrollment?

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Gross Intake Ratio into Grade 1: One Decade

Let’s look at the intake rate.Now, what is the “normal intake”?

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Gross Intake Ratio into Grade 1: One Decade

Now, what is the “normal intake”?

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Gross Intake Ratio into Grade 1: One Decade

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Now suppose you start out with half the kids out of school in 2000…

Now, what is the “normal intake”?

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Gross Intake Ratio into Grade 1: One Decade

… Even with 50% OOS in 2000, in just a few years the over-age due to that would have been taken in, the top triangle compensating for the bottom one, because the system was over-intaking by 60% to 80%.

And then you have all that rectangle to spare: impossible.

Now, what is the “normal intake”?

100%

Early bulge: Uganda as compared to 40 other countries

Enrol1/Pop7 Enrol2/Pop8 Enrol3/Pop9 Enrol4/Pop10 Enrol5/Pop11 Enrol6/Pop120.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

2

2.25

2.5

2.75

Age for Grade and the Early Grades Bulge

Enro

llmen

t Gra

de fo

r Age

Uganda

Median, other countries with foundational problems

Study the problem by looking at 4 key ratios

Ratio of P1 enrollment to Pop Age 7

Ratio of P2 enrollment to P1 enrollment

Gross intake ratio into P1

Gross Enrollment Ratio in pre-primary

“Ideal values”, real values in other countries, Uganda

“Ideal” values

Real, other countries with Foundational First Five problems

Uganda (over same time period)

P1/Age 7 About 1.0 1.50 1.60

P2/P1 About 1.0 0.82 0.70

GIR into P1 About 1.0 higher only in post conflict or after huge reforms

1.27 1.50

GER in pre-primary At least 1.0 0.24 0.13

Conclusions thus far The bulge in over-enrollment in early grades cannot be due to

under-age or over-age entry or intake

It may likely be partially due to some exaggeration

But the main pattern is probably rather large-scale, under-reported repetition: “in school over-aging”

A major reason for this: Grade 1 is widely available and free

So, parents “use” Grade 1 as a form of ECD It is expected repetition, aging-in-place

But a very inefficient form of ECD

Another clue to FFF problems: crisis in early grade reading

Testing in some 53 language/country combinations: about 50% of kids unableto read any words in the language of instruction

• This • is

• how• most

• 3rd-grade kids • in

• Uganda• read, at best

•

• This • is

• how• most

• 3rd-grade kids • in

• rich countries (OECD)• read

•

What it feels like to be a non-reader…

In Uganda: same early-grade reading “crisis”

Oral Reading Fluency % of children0 82%> 0 to <=5 3%> 5 to <=10 3%> 10 to <=15 4%> 15 to <=20 3%> 20 to <=25 2%> 25 to <=30 2%> 30 to <=35 1%

Using all 2014 SHRP control schools in P2 in the four languages assessed.

About 82% unable to read any words

Summary up to now: Foundational First Five Triple CrisisTriple crisis in “Foundational First Five”1. Crisis of un-reported (very large) repetition, exaggerated

(implausible) intake, not much dropout in the early grades (in spite of opinion that there is)

2. Lack of early childhood care / kindergarten and even pre-kindergarten

3. Crisis of reading in the early grades– About ½ of children in early grades in poorer areas are not capable of

reading a single word– This combines with the above two

You get the triple crisis in the first five years

Not just Uganda but in some 40 countries

What are the economics and finance? Goal:

– Reduce the waste, over-enrollment, and dropping out due to problems in Foundational First Five

– Reduce the cost of producing a completer

Does require some investment up front, but pays off:• In about 10 years• Via reductions in cumulative cost of completers

What investments are required? What is the pay-off? Based on a preliminary cost simulation model of the usual WB

type (JP Tan, Mingat, Rakotomalala, etc.)

Based on patterns from SHRP and good thinking in GPE plan Investments:

– Expand access to pre-grade-1 education– Training of teachers in all pre-primary, public or private– Expand early-grade teacher training to 3 key subjects, 5 or 6 key

grades– Improved books provision– Better teacher supervision– Better school management and governance– Overall systems improvement

What investments are required, what is the benefit-cost?

Results of financial simulation model Investment plan is reasonable Break-even year: year 7 of the investment plan Internal rate of return is 8% over 15 years: good investment Costs per pupil do go up by about 15% But costs per completer* go down 15% to 20% over 10-15 years

*Proxied by P7 enrolee

But remember… Using a budget and expenditure to improve things is like pushing on a string…

You need to pull on a string…

If you have • accountability systems,• data monitoring, • rewards and sanctions,• spreading of lessons learned: • systemic reforms.

Then the budget can pull.

The benefits are not mainly in improved efficiencyThe real benefits are social and economic• Main message:• Education past P7 is enormously important for

economic and social progress• Transition to S1 and S5 are key• We will take health as one example• But it is true for economics and other results

Health Sector Policies

Female Education (esp 2ndary)

Econ growth

Other ed policies (e.g., EGR)

Contraceptive prevalence rate

Mother’s age at first birth

% of births professionally attended

Number of children per woman (total fertility rate)

Less mother deaths

Better education of next generation

“Independent” factors Intermediate factors Results

Impacts of female secondary education

Health Sector Policies

Female Education (esp 2ndary)

Econ growth

Other ed policies (e.g., EGR)

Contraceptive prevalence rate

Mother’s age at first birth

% of births professionally attended

Number of children per woman (total fertility rate)

Less mother deaths

Better education of next generation

1 2

3

7

4

5

8

9

“Independent” factors Intermediate factors Results

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Impacts of female secondary education

That’s a theoretical model…

What do the real data look like for Uganda?

What do the data for Uganda look like?

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Teenage Motherhood: % Teenagers that are mothers, by grades of education

Grades of Education Completed by Teenage Mother

% o

f Tee

nage

rs 1

5-19

yea

rs w

ho h

ave

had

a ch

ild o

r are

pr

egna

nt

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

R² = 0.810140118957136

Teenage Motherhood: % Teenagers that are mothers, by grades of education

Grades of Education Completed by Teenage Mother

% o

f Tee

nage

rs 1

5-19

yea

rs w

ho h

ave

had

a ch

ild o

r are

pr

egna

ntWhat do the data for Uganda look like?

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Contraceptive Use among married women or those with live-in partners, by grades of education

Using any FP methodUsing Modern FP Method

Grades of Education of Mother

Perc

enta

ge C

ontr

acep

tive

Use

What do the data for Uganda look like?

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Professional assistance during delivery, by mother’s grades of education

Grades of Education of Mother

% o

f del

iver

ies a

ssis

ted

by a

pro

fess

iona

l hea

lth

wor

ker

What do the data for Uganda look like?

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Total number of children ever born among women 40 - 49 years, by grades of education

Grades of Education of Mother

Num

ber o

f chi

ldre

n bo

rnWhat do the data for Uganda look like?

Summary There is a crisis in the “Foundational First Five” Over-enrollment, impossible intake, low ECD, non-reading in early

grades It is costly in wastage, repetition, dropout Makes transition to secondary impossible Investments needed: would raise cost per child, but considerably

reduce cost per completer Investment profile similar to current GPE, SHRP, LARA Return on investment: about 8%-9% It is important to do this: transition to secondary has huge social

payoffs, but without solving the “Foundational First Five” you cannot do it

And you do need system reforms: just spending won’t do it

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