San Mateo County transportation tax poll

DRAFT - Page 111-Jul-17

San Mateo County Transportation Survey2017 Voter Survey

July 11, 2017


Overview and Research Objectives

San Mateo County commissioned Godbe Research to conduct a survey of local voters with the following research objectives:

Ø Assess potential voter support for either a sales tax, business license payroll tax, or combination of the two to reduce traffic in San Mateo County with funding that cannot be taken by the State;

Ø Prioritize projects and programs to be funded with the proceeds;

Ø Test the influence of informational and critical statements on potential voter support; and

Ø Identify any differences in voter support due to demographic and/or voter behavioral characteristics.


Methodology Overview

Ø Data Collection Landline, cell phone and online interviewing from email invitation

Ø Universe 180,353 likely November 2018 voters in San Mateo County, with a subsample of those likely to vote in the June 2018 election (116,696).

Ø Fielding Dates March 21 through March 30, 2017

Ø Interview Length 20 minutes

Ø Sample Size 937 Likely November 2018 voters763 Likely June 2018 voters

Ø Margin of Error ± 3.13% Likely November 2018 voters± 3.54% Likely June 2018 voters

The data have been weighted to reflect the actual population characteristics of likely voters in San Mateo County in terms of their gender, age, and political party type.


Key Findings


Ballot Questions

Sales TaxTo reduce traffic in San Mateo County by:

• expanding Interstate 101 from Whipple Road to Highway 380, and Highway 92 from Interstate101 to the San Mateo Bridge;

• repairing potholes and maintaining streets; • extending Caltrain/light rail from Redwood City to Union City; • modernizing Caltrain to nearly double capacity, reducing car trips; • funding alternative transportation including bike lanes and senior transit; • maintaining Caltrain and SamTrans transit systems;

shall San Mateo County Transportation Authority levy a half-cent sales tax, providing $80 million dollars annually for 30 years that the State cannot take away?

Payroll Based Business License TaxTo reduce traffic in San Mateo County by:

• expanding Interstate 101 from Whipple Road to Highway 380, and Highway 92 from Interstate101 to the San Mateo Bridge;

• repairing potholes and maintaining streets; • extending Caltrain/light rail from Redwood City to Union City; • modernizing Caltrain to nearly double capacity, reducing car trips; • funding alternative transportation including bike lanes and senior transit;

shall San Mateo County Transportation Authority levy ¼ of one percent on gross payroll of companies with 100 or more employees in San Mateo County, providing $47 million dollars annually that the State cannot take away?


Q1, 2, 3 & 4. Uninformed SupportNovember 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Sample C ¼% Payroll Nov 2018

Sample B ¼% Payroll Nov 2018

Sample B ½¢ Sales Tax

Nov 2018

Sample A ½¢ Sales Tax

Nov 2018

39.8%

35.0%

32.7%

35.7%

31.2%

33.3%

30.1%

30.0%

8.1%

10.9%

7.7%

10.0%

13.2%

13.9%

23.0%

14.3%

7.6%

6.9%

6.6%

10.2%

Definitely Yes Probably Yes Probably No Definitely No DK/NA

65.7%

62.8%

68.3%

71.0%


Q1, 2, 3 & 4. Uninformed SupportJune 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Sample C ¼% Payroll Jun 2018

Sample B ¼% Payroll June 2018


June 2018


June 2018

41.9%

40.0%

37.1%

41.2%

30.3%

31.0%

27.7%

27.2%

7.2%

9.2%

7.5%

8.6%

11.5%

16.2%

23.4%

15.4%

9.1%

3.5%

4.3%

7.6%


68.4%

64.8%

71.0%

72.2%


Stronger Support or Weaker Support Initially

Sales Tax Sales Tax & BLT Business License Tax

Higher Support 40-49 yr olds 40-49 yr olds PAV

Dems Dems & Oth

Likely June PAV

1, 2, 3 5 SD Likely June

North County Coast

Men

Owners

2 SD

Lower Support Reps 18-29 yr olds Reps & DTS

4 SD Reps

Male Reps Not PAV

Women NPP

Renters


Q5. Features of the Measure November 2018 (n=937)

Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, “No Effect” = 0, “Somewhat Less Likely” = -1, and “Much Less Likely” = -2.

SomewhatMore Likely

Somewhat Less Likely

Much Less Likely

-2 -1 0 1 2

5R. Create an Innovation and Technology Fund to be …5S. Convert an existing lane in each direction on …5I. Add an express lane on Highway 101 for high …

5A. Extend Caltrain and light rail from Redwood City to …5Q. Maintain and improve pedestrian and bike paths

5P. Provide ongoing operational funding for the …5E. Fund alternative transportation including bike lanes …

5L. Provide ongoing operational funding for Caltrain5M. Provide funding for ferry terminals and service in …

5O. Add a lane in each direction on Highway 101 for …5H. Extend Caltrain or light rail from Redwood City east …

5K. Provide initial funding to either raise the Caltrain …5F. Maintain Caltrain and SamTrans transit systems

5N. Provide enhanced senior transit options for medical …5D. Expand Highway 101 from Whipple to 380, and …

5B. Modernize Caltrain to nearly double capacity and …5G. Reduce congestion on Highway 101

5J. Provide funding for City and County pothole repair, …5C. Repair potholes and maintain streets

0.220.28

0.450.460.470.480.480.510.540.600.640.670.720.730.79

0.961.061.11

1.27

Much More Likely

Sample DSample E

T-2Tier 3

Tier 1Tier 4

T-5

82%

41%


Q6. Influence of Informational StatementsNovember 2018 (n=937)

Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0.

0 1 2

6N. Passing both measures ensures that San Mateo …

6O. Each measure will address a different part of the …

6M. Funding provided by both measures are necessary …

6I. The Trump administration is withholding funding …

6K. The measure(s) will make it safer to drive, bike and …

6G. The measure(s) will help reduce greenhouse gases …

6F. The measure(s) will help keep major businesses …

6H. Safeguards to ensure accountability, including …

6J. The measure(s) will preserve bus and train service …

6C. The measure(s) will allow San Mateo County to get …

6L. The measure(s) would help reduce traffic …

6E. The measure(s) would help reduce traffic …

6A. The measure(s) will take tens of thousands of cars …

6D. Every penny from this measure(s) will benefit local …

6B. Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the …

0.84

0.84

0.95

1.00

1.04

1.07

1.08

1.16

1.16

1.19

1.20

1.21

1.22

1.27

1.30

No Effect Somewhat More Likely

Much More Likely

Sample B

Tier 2Tier 3

Tier 1

78%

52%


Q7, 8, 9 & 10. Interim SupportNovember 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%




Nov 2018


Nov 2018

42.8%

38.3%

36.0%

42.0%

30.1%

35.0%

27.1%

28.9%

7.7%

7.8%

9.3%

9.5%

15.0%

14.9%

22.6%

14.5%

4.5%

4.1%

5.0%

5.1%


70.9%

63.1%

73.3%

72.9%


Q7, 8, 9 & 10. Interim SupportJune 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%




June 2018


June 2018

43.2%

43.2%

39.9%

46.5%

33.1%

31.0%

25.1%

28.3%

4.3%

7.2%

11.0%

6.7%

13.5%

15.1%

20.5%

15.7%

5.9%

3.4%

3.5%

2.8%


74.8%

65.0%

74.2%

76.3%


Stronger Support or Weaker Support After Features and Informational Statements


Higher Support Women Dems Owners

Dems Likely June PAV

Likely June PAV

Lower Support Men 18-29 yr olds Reps

50-64 yr olds Reps Not PAV

Reps Not PAV Not Likely June

2 SD

Central County

Renters


Q11. Potential Critical StatementsNovember 2018 (n=937)

Note: The above rating questions have been abbreviated for charting purposes, and responses were recoded to calculate mean scores: “Much More Likely” = +2, “Somewhat More Likely” = +1, and “No Effect” = 0.

0 1 2

11B. San Mateo County has asked taxpayers to approve two sales tax measures in the last 5 years, enough is

enough, we can't afford another tax increase

11A. If government agencies managed their budgets more efficiently, we would not have to pay more in taxes

11D. The sales tax measure will result in San Mateo County having one of the highest sales tax rates in the

state, which will chase businesses out of San Mateo County

11C. We already pay a large gas tax that is supposed to go toward transportation projects and fixing roads. Instead of

asking for more taxes, the state and county need to cut waste and do a better job with taxpayer money

11E. Sales taxes are the most regressive form of taxation, hurting low income and senior citizens the most

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.85

0.87

No Effect Somewhat More Likely

Much More Likely

Sample A & B

54%

48%


Q12, 13, 14 & 15. Informed SupportNovember 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%




Nov 2018


Nov 2018

39.6%

38.7%

33.9%

34.3%

29.3%

31.1%

26.8%

29.4%

8.8%

8.1%

9.5%

11.9%

16.1%

16.4%

25.1%

17.0%

6.2%

5.7%

4.7%

7.4%


63.7%

60.7%

69.8%

68.9%


Q12, 13, 14 & 15. Informed SupportJune 2018

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%




June 2018


June 2018

40.0%

45.3%

36.7%

40.4%

32.4%

24.7%

25.1%

28.2%

7.1%

8.2%

11.2%

8.6%

14.4%

17.5%

23.7%

18.0%

6.1%

4.3%

3.3%

4.9%


68.6%

61.8%

70.0%

72.4%



Stronger Support Dems Dems, Others & DTS Dems

Likely June Owner PAV

PAV

Likely June

Central County

Weaker Support Reps Reps Reps

Not Likely June 18-29 yr olds

Renters

Not PAV

Stronger Support or Weaker Support After Critical Statements


Summary & Recommendations

Ø The survey revealed a solid base of voter support for a transportation revenue measure. However, a payroll based business license tax does numerically, but not statistically better than a sales tax. This is the case whether the measures are placed on the ballot individually or together. Further:§ A payroll based business license tax has a higher chance of success in either June or

November 2018 elections than the sales tax, although the difference is not statistically significant.

§ A sales tax does not reach the two-thirds threshold for the November 2018 election, but the differences between election environments are not statistically significant.

§ While we tested the measures both independently and together, the data shows that the measures should not be placed on the ballot together. As a result of this finding, the sequencing decision will be very important.

§ Future surveys should determine if there are other alternatives (that generate similar annual revenue) have the same or better chance of success.

Ø Top tier features of the measure (listed below) suggest that some of the items in the ballot question could be revised to increase support.§ Repair potholes and maintain streets.§ Provide funding for City and County pothole repair, road maintenance and local

transportation projects.§ Reduce congestion on Highway 101.



§ Modernize Caltrain to nearly double capacity and reduce car trips.§ Expand Highway 101 from Whipple to 380, and Highway 92 from 101 to the San Mateo

Bridge.Ø Top tier informational statements are:

§ Our local streets and roads are falling apart, the measure(s) will help stop the deterioration and make repairs

§ Every penny from this measure(s) will benefit local transportation projects and programs, and cannot be taken by the State

§ The measure(s) will take tens of thousands of cars off of 101, 280, 92 and 380 each weekday

§ The measure(s) would help reduce traffic congestion on freeways and major streets like El Camino Real

§ The measure(s) would help reduce traffic congestion on roadways in San Mateo County, reducing critical emergency response times

§ The measure(s) will allow San Mateo County to get millions of dollars in State matching funds. Without approval of the measure(s) that money will go to other counties

§ The measure(s) will preserve bus and train service to help reduce traffic congestion§ Safeguards to ensure accountability, including independent oversight and annual audits,

will ensure that the money will be spent properly



Ø Given the survey findings, public outreach efforts should begin as soon as possible in order to explain the need and potential solutions. It is important to note that this effort should not wait for a final decision on the structure of the measure.


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San Mateo County transportation tax poll