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Reaching New HeightsDel Paso Heights
Wayne Feiden, FAICP Northampton MA
Darrel Williams, AIA Charlotte
Steve Cecil, AIA ASLABoston
Jason ClaunchDallas
Cesar Santoy, AIAChicago
1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920s 1965 1970s 2015
Rancho de Grimes(circa 1944)
Rancho Del Paso (1862)
James B.A. Haggins
Haggins’ Thoroughbred
horses
Ranch
1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920s 1965 1970s 2015
Ranch Del Paso subdivision/development (c. 1910)
Early Del Paso Heights area map (c. 1924)
Development of N. Sacramento suburbs
Liberty Iron Works, Del Paso Blvd. (c. 1918)
Subdivision/development
1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920 1930s 1965 1970s 2015
Farmer’s market (c. 1950s)
Local theater (c. 1930s)
Del Paso Heights suburb map (c. 1950s)
Craig’s Barber Shop (c. 1930s) Barbara Worth & horse (1930)
Urban
1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920 1930s 1965 1970s 2015
Merging of N. Sac. and Sac. (1965) Del Paso Heights Redevelopment Plan (1970s)
Annexation
1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920 1930s 1965 1970s 2015
NOW
Strengths
Needs
Home Values
Median Home Value2015 $168,4172020 $178,251
DemographicsHome Ownership: 60%Rental: 40%
Race/EthnicityWhite: 23%Black: 24%Asian: 23%Hispanic: 30%
Median Age: 27
138,000
22,160
21,74910,262
15,398
Mobility
Underutilization
Vacant lots
Creek walking path
Closed storefronts/fragmented ownership
Limited private & public servicesA Tale of 2 Libraries (Source: Measure of America)
SDAT workshop
Don’t let others define you
Values that support YOUR Identity
• Diversity
• Complete Neighborhood
• Place
• Opportunity
• Pride
Diversity
• Cultural
• Ethnic
• Economic
• Housing
Complete Neighborhood
mob
ility
mob
ility
mobility
mobility
Place
• Neighborhood Center
• Grant High School
• Parks & Open Space
• Urban Fabric
Opportunities
• Affordability
• Learning & knowledge
• Entrepreneurship
• Resources (follow vision)
Pride
• Sports/Pacers
• Diversity
• Festivals
• Cultural History
Make YOUR Identity
Values
• Diversity• Complete Neighborhood• Place• Opportunity• Pride
Strategic Approach
• Community Revitalization• Economic Revitalization• Community Design
Community Revitalization
Civic Empowerment
Community Organizing Umbrella EntityCommunity Organizing Umbrella Entity working with local Groups, Schools, House of Worship and City of Sacramento
Community Revitalization
Resources for Development
New Community Development Corporation and Community Development Corporation and Business Incubator Business Incubator to match Del Paso Heights with Resources
Community Revitalization
Housing Choices for Owner and Renters
Community Organizations Community Organizations to promote Housing & Rental Stock Mental Health ResourcesMental Health Resources to address Homelessness
Community Revitalization
Mobility and Transit
Transit Access PlanTransit Access Plan, Pedestrian-friendly Pedestrian-friendly Streets, Enhanced Bike RoutesStreets, Enhanced Bike Routes
Community Revitalization
Health & Wellness
Urban AgricultureUrban Agriculture can be a new Del Paso Heights Industry
Health Disparities Source: Healthy Sacramento
RESIDENTIAL DEMAND
Understanding the need
2015 Median County Income 80% of Median Household Income
County Name Median Area Income 1 Person 2 People 3 People 4 People 5 People 6 People 7+ People Total
Sacramento County $71,500 40,050 45,800 51,500 57,200 61,800 66,400 70,950
2015 Households by Income Del PasoHousehold Income Base 1,148 270 276 184 157 107 68 88 1,149.15
<$15,000 26% 69.60 71.08 47.39 40.58 27.55 17.47 22.81 296.48 $15,000 - $24,999 15% 10.16 10.38 6.92 5.92 4.02 2.55 3.33 43.29 $25,000 - $34,999 16% 1.65 1.68 1.12 0.96 0.65 0.41 0.54 7.01 $35,000 - $49,999 20% 0.33 0.33 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.08 0.11 1.40 $50,000 - $74,999 14% 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.20 $75,000 - $99,999 6% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 $100,000 - $149,999 3% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $150,000 - $199,999 1% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $200,000+ 0% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Study Area Average Household Income
$37,141
Count @ 80% AMI 81.41 83.48 55.65 47.65 32.35 20.52 26.80 348.39
Annual Multifamily DemandEstimated Annual Demand Potential for MultifamilyBased on 2015 - 2020 County Demographic Trends
Monthly Rent $500 $750 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $750 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 And Up Qualifying Income Less Than $35,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $35,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 And Up Total
2015 Total Households1 526,102 2020 Total Households1 543,659 Avg. Annual Household Growth 3,511
New Household Growth Total Annual New Households1 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511% Income Qualified 28% 13% 19% 14% 25% 99%# Income Qualified 983 456 667 492 878 3,476Renter Propensity 71% 51% 41% 31% 18% 44%Qualified New Households 698 233 274 152 158 1,515
Existing Owner Household Estimated Owners in Turnover that Rent 2,673 699 1,183 1,082 1,598 7,235
Existing Renter Households Estimated Renters in Turnover that Rent 29,337 9,522 9,057 3,215 2,969 54,101
Income Qualified Households Total Potential Demand 32,708 10,454 10,514 4,449 4,725 62,850Percent New Renters3 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2%Total Potential Demand for New Units 698 233 274 152 158 1,515
City Capture Rate3,4 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%Total Potential New Multifamily Demand 70 23 27 15 16 151
1. ESRI2. US Census American Community Survey3. US Census American Housing Survey4. US Census Building Permits Survey
Annual Single Family DemandEstimated Annual Demand Potential For Purchase Residential
Based on 2015 - 2020 County Demographic Trends
Home Value less than $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 and above Qualifying Income less than $40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 $200,000 $40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 $200,000 Total
2015 Total Households1 526,102
2020 Total Households1 543,659
Avg. Annual Household Growth 3,511
New Household GrowthTotal Annual New Households1 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511% Income Qualified 32% 20% 15% 10% 5% 6% 6% 5% 99%# Income Qualified 1,124 702 527 351 176 211 211 176 3,476Owner Propensity 30% 55% 63% 72% 75% 82% 89% 84% 56%Qualified New Households 337 386 332 253 132 173 188 147 1,947
Existing Owner HouseholdEstimated Owners in Turnover that Rent 636 810 2,088 966 513 738 1,534 1,485 8,770
Existing Renter HouseholdsEstimated Renters in Turnover that Rent 3,450 4,353 3,409 2,354 1,331 1,246 483 859 17,485
Income Qualified HouseholdsTotal Potential Demand 4,424 5,549 5,829 3,573 1,976 2,156 2,205 2,491 28,202Percent New Renters3 86% 85% 64% 73% 74% 66% 30% 40% 69%Total Potential Demand for New Units 3,787 4,739 3,741 2,607 1,463 1,418 671 1,006 19,432
Del Paso Capture Rate3,4 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Total Potential New Single Family Demand 76 95 75 52 29 28 13 20 389
1. ESRI2. US Census American Community Survey3. US Census American Housing Survey4. US Census Building Permits Survey
RETAIL DEMAND
Retail Distribution(5 – 10 min trade areas)
Distribution of population(by age)
Retail Supportable Commuter Traffic
138,000
22,160
21,749
10,262
15,398
Retail Demand5 min consumer shed
Demand Supply Retail Gap Demand (2020)
Demand (2025)
Retail Gap Estimated
Category (Retail Potential)
(Retail Sales) (Retail Potential)
(Retail Potential) 2025
Supportable SF
Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $2,182,274 $11,972,221 -$9,789,947 $2,264,109 $2,349,013 -$9,623,208 0Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $3,887,468 $5,708,811 -$1,821,343 $4,033,248 $4,184,495 -$1,524,316 0Furniture Stores $2,079,100 $3,867,410 -$1,788,310 $2,157,066 $2,237,956 -$1,629,454 0Home Furnishings Stores $1,808,369 $1,841,401 -$33,032 $1,876,183 $1,946,540 $105,139 350Electronics & Appliance Stores $3,982,231 $7,486,574 -$3,504,343 $4,131,565 $4,286,498 -$3,200,076 0Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $3,988,351 $3,383,369 $604,982 $4,137,914 $4,293,086 $909,717 3032Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $530,095 $444,222 $85,873 $549,974 $570,598 $126,376 421Grocery Stores $27,913,903 $25,868,978 $2,044,925 $28,960,674 $30,046,700 $4,177,722 13926Specialty Food Stores $1,165,135 $806,731 $358,404 $1,208,828 $1,254,159 $447,428 1491Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $1,761,283 $1,899,022 -$137,739 $1,827,331 $1,895,856 -$3,166 0Health & Personal Care Stores $12,907,200 $1,487,850 $11,419,350 $13,391,220 $13,893,391 $12,405,541 41352Gasoline Stations $14,846,822 $69,722,212 -$54,875,390 $15,403,578 $15,981,212 -$53,741,000 0Clothing Stores $8,916,882 $3,112,705 $5,804,177 $9,251,265 $9,598,188 $6,485,483 21618Shoe Stores $1,438,584 $0 $1,438,584 $1,492,531 $1,548,501 $1,548,501 5162Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $1,408,784 $252,683 $1,156,101 $1,461,613 $1,516,424 $1,263,741 4212Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $2,969,350 $965,384 $2,003,966 $3,080,701 $3,196,227 $2,230,843 7436Book, Periodical & Music Stores $808,076 $663,089 $144,987 $838,379 $869,818 $206,729 689Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $10,215,136 $2,723,320 $7,491,816 $10,598,204 $10,995,636 $8,272,316 27574Other General Merchandise Stores $14,940,203 $8,224,016 $6,716,187 $15,500,461 $16,081,728 $7,857,712 26192Miscellaneous Store Retailers $4,953,398 $5,856,735 -$903,337 $5,139,150 $5,331,869 -$524,866 0Florists $221,229 $406,105 -$184,876 $229,525 $238,132 -$167,973 0Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $898,287 $1,547,323 -$649,036 $931,973 $966,922 -$580,401 0Used Merchandise Stores $411,501 $1,103,440 -$691,939 $426,932 $442,942 -$660,498 0Food Services & Drinking Places $18,710,161 $24,881,365 -$6,171,204 $19,411,792 $20,139,734 -$4,741,631 0Full-Service Restaurants $8,796,335 $5,634,844 $3,161,491 $9,126,198 $9,468,430 $3,833,586 12779Limited-Service Eating Places $8,551,868 $18,408,707 -$9,856,839 $8,872,563 $9,205,284 -$9,203,423 0Special Food Services $810,970 $472,073 $338,897 $841,381 $872,933 $400,860 1336Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $550,987 $365,741 $185,246 $571,649 $593,086 $227,345 758
168,330 Assumptions
3.75%growth rate
Retail Attraction
EMPLOYMENT
Population Comparison
MillennialGen Y
Gen Z Gen XBaby Boomer
Silent Gen.
38% 35% 28% 8%Del Paso:
Area
most members of this generation are at the beginning of their careers
Workforce Distribution
Del Paso Heights Workforce Composition
Activating Economic Diversity• 35% of Del Paso Heights
arriving at career age ~10k/yr• 11.9% unemployment ~ 5k
25+ out of work• 28% of 25+ did not graduate
from high school
Job CreationInnovation Centers
Types of Incubator Centers:Co-Work Office SpacesMakers Spaces / LabsFood Centers / Kitchens Music/Film/Art StudiosHealth What is the Value of an Incubator/Innovation Center? -A hub of activity dedicated to collaboration, creativity and opportunity-A nexus for exchange of ideas and partnerships, among universities and businesses-A neighborhood to live, to work, play and learn within walking distance to transportation -A building providing views of academia and private industry interacting at work-A catalyst for job creation and economic development-A key strategy in attracting, retaining, and growing an educated talent base
http://www.sierrahealth.org/nic
Incubator Center Operating Costsest. 7,500 sf
Mixed Use Development with Innovation Center Anchor - Del PasoInnovation Center Breakeven Analysis
Mar-15Innovation Center Costs
Annual % Increase Cost Categories Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
0.00% Building Rent $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 3.00% Salaries/Benefits $125,000 $128,750 $132,613 $136,591 $140,689 $144,909 $149,257 $153,734 $158,346 $163,097 3.00% Payroll/Admin Costs $7,500 $7,725 $7,957 $8,195 $8,441 $8,695 $8,955 $9,224 $9,501 $9,786 2.00% Liability Insurance $1,200 $1,224 $1,248 $1,273 $1,299 $1,325 $1,351 $1,378 $1,406 $1,434 2.00% Event Costs $10,000 $10,200 $10,404 $10,612 $10,824 $11,041 $11,262 $11,487 $11,717 $11,951 2.00% Furnishings/Fixtures $7,500 $7,650 $7,803 $7,959 $8,118 $8,281 $8,446 $8,615 $8,787 $8,963 2.00% Supplies $10,000 $10,200 $10,404 $10,612 $10,824 $11,041 $11,262 $11,487 $11,717 $11,951
2.00%Equipment
Maintenance $5,000 $5,100 $5,202 $5,306 $5,412 $5,520 $5,631 $5,743 $5,858 $5,975 2.00% Marketing $15,000 $15,300 $15,606 $15,918 $16,236 $16,561 $16,892 $17,230 $17,575 $17,926 1.00% Miscellaneous $10,000 $10,100 $10,201 $10,303 $10,406 $10,510 $10,615 $10,721 $10,829 $10,937
Total: $249,522 $254,571 $259,760 $265,093 $270,573 $276,205 $281,994 $287,943 $294,058 $300,343 Note: Largest cost component is Salaries/Benefits -- Cost assumes 1 full-time and 1 part-time employee.
Annual Funding Needs $249,522 $254,571 $259,760 $265,093 $270,573 $276,205 $281,994 $287,943 $294,058 $300,343
IncubatorPotential Funding
Innovation Center Anchor - Del Paso
Innovation Center Breakeven Analysis
Mar-15
% of Funding Revenue Categories Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
25.00%Memberships/User
Fees $62,381 $63,643 $64,940 $66,273 $67,643 $69,051 $70,498 $71,986 $73,514 $75,086
5.00% Rental Fees $12,476 $12,729 $12,988 $13,255 $13,529 $13,810 $14,100 $14,397 $14,703 $15,017
20.00% Partnerships $49,904 $50,914 $51,952 $53,019 $54,115 $55,241 $56,399 $57,589 $58,812 $60,069
25.00% Contracts $62,381 $63,643 $64,940 $66,273 $67,643 $69,051 $70,498 $71,986 $73,514 $75,086
15.00% Sponsorships $37,428 $38,186 $38,964 $39,764 $40,586 $41,431 $42,299 $43,191 $44,109 $45,051
5.00% Grants $12,476 $12,729 $12,988 $13,255 $13,529 $13,810 $14,100 $14,397 $14,703 $15,017
5.00% Contributions $12,476 $12,729 $12,988 $13,255 $13,529 $13,810 $14,100 $14,397 $14,703 $15,017
0.00% Other $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
0.00% Other $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
100.00% Total: $249,522 $254,571 $259,760 $265,093 $270,573 $276,205 $281,994 $287,943 $294,058 $300,343
Job Training Strategy
• Foster greater collaboration among existing businesses, non-profits and higher education for job training and adult education.
• Cultivating employer relationships with an understanding of the needs of potential employers
• Incentify local businesses to hire Del Paso workforce.• Use Labor-market Information to Target Sectors that
Hire Entry-level Workers that Fit Your Populations Served
• Continually Evaluate Job Development Success
Strategic Training
TESTING THE VISION
Source: http://news.theregistrysf.com/cbre-sells-42-unit-mixed-use-portfolio-piedmont-avenue-neighborhood/
Testing the VisionRetail – Mixed Use
Mixed-Use Development Pro Forma - Scenario A Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15
Net Operating Income
Multi family $250,789 $258,313 $241,875 $249,131 $256,605 $264,303 $272,232 $280,399 $288,811 $297,475 $306,400 $315,592 $325,059 $334,811 $344,855
For-sale Housing $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Office/Commercial $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Retail $126,078 $259,707 $264,775 $272,107 $279,325 $286,427 $293,409 $300,270 $309,379 $315,986 $324,835 $331,175 $339,751 $348,186 $356,475
Hotel $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Structured Parking $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Total NOI $376,867 $518,020 $506,649 $521,237 $535,930 $550,730 $565,641 $580,669 $598,190 $613,461 $631,235 $646,767 $664,811 $682,997 $701,330
Development Costs
Multi family $1,637,185 $1,289,524 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
For-sale Housing $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Office/Commercial $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Retail $1,550,313 $1,589,070 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Hotel $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Structured Parking $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- Other Infrastructure (1)
$- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Total Development Costs
$3,187,498 $2,878,594 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Annual Cash Flow
Net Operating Income
$376,867 $518,020 $506,649 $521,237 $535,930 $550,730 $565,641 $580,669 $598,190 $613,461 $631,235 $646,767 $664,811 $682,997 $701,330
Total Asset Value@
10% $7,013,301
Total Costs of Sale (2) @
5% $(350,665)
Total Development Costs
$(3,187,498) $(2,878,594) $- $- $- $- - $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-
Net Cash Flow $(2,810,630) $(2,360,574) $506,649 $521,237 $535,930 $550,730 $565,641 $580,669 $598,190 $613,461 $631,235 $646,767 $664,811 $682,997 $7,363,967
Net Present Value
@10% $488,284
Unleveraged IRR:
11.3%
(1) Other Infrastructure costs are not allocated among each of the uses. The project net present value is therefore less than the sum of the net present values for the individual uses. (2) Assumes asset sale in Year 15.
Source: Catalyst Commercial
Community DesignNeighborhood Opportunities
Del Paso Neighborhood
Community Design
New Retail Infill
Outdoor Basketball Arena
Enhanced Bike & Creek Trail
]
New Residential InfillCommunity Design
Marysville Corridor
Community Design
Marysville Corridor
Community Design
Grand Avenue
Grant High School
Police Station
South Avenue
Urban League
Old Grocery
Community DesignDel Paso Center
Grand Avenue
Grant High School
Police Station
South Avenue
Urban League
Old Grocery
New Housing
New Mixed Use
Plazas and Shops
New Health Services
New Housing/Mixed Use
Infill Housing/Mixed Use
New Shop
Community Design
Community Design
Community Design
Community Design
Community Design
Public/Private PartnershipsPublic/Private PartnershipsCommunity Development Corporation Projects Community Development Corporation Projects Private Sector ReinvestmentPrivate Sector Reinvestment
Community Design
• Parcel assembly using City property and right-of-ways
• Competitive Requests for Development Proposals
• Incentives in zoning
Del Paso Heights is a diverse and affordable community with preferred neighborhoods, great parks, a sense of place, community and pride, where we have opportunities and our daily needs are meet.
Presentation at: www.aia.org/liv_sdat
