2016 ncfef post primary briefing

2014 Election Updates & Insights

2016 Primary Briefing March 16, 2016

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF


NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on

candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.

Joe Stewart Executive Director

[email protected] (919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF


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What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?

fear … anxiety … anger

Certain Uncertainty

Factors in North Carolina’s political landscape

What were we expecting?

þ  Lots of attention from Presidential candidates

¥  Presidential excitement mattered, but OH & FL ‘hail Mary’ for Kasich & Rubio overshadowed

þ  Up-ballot voter ’anger’ might impact down-ballot

¥  Not so much

þ  Significance of GOP infighting

¥  To be determined

@NCFEF

@NCFEF 2016 Early Voting

2016 Election – Outcome Overview

Votes Cast 2,300,955

TO (‘12=34.66%) 35.34%

Presidential GOP

TRUMP CRUZ KASICH RUBIO

40.24% 36.77% 12.68% 7.71%

Presidential DEM

CLINTON SANDERS

54.59% 40.76%

Presidential LIB JOHNSON NO PREF

38.1% 36.5%

Connect NC 65.56% YES 34.44% NO

AmericanSamoa 3/22/16 9Arizona 3/22/16 58Utah 3/22/16 40

NorthDakota 4/1/16 28Wisconsin 4/5/16 42NewYork 4/19/16 95ConnecBcut 4/26/16 28Delaware 4/26/16 16Maryland 4/26/16 38

Pennsylvania 4/26/16 71RhodeIsland 4/26/16 19

GOPDELEGATES Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson

1,237toWin

2,472Total 621 396 168 138 8

Indiana 5/3/16 57Nebraska 5/10/16 36

WestVirginia 5/10/16 34Oregon 5/17/16 28

Washington 5/24/16 44California 6/7/16 172Montana 6/7/16 27NewJersey 6/7/16 51NewMexico 6/7/16 24SouthDakota 6/7/16 29

Surfing Theory of Politics

@NCFEF

2016 Primary: US Senate

Paul Wright

Larry Holmquist

Richard Burr (I)

Greg Brannon

@NCFEF

61.4% 8.5% 4.9% 25.2%

þ

2016 Primary: US Senate

@NCFEF

Chris Rey

Deborah Ross

Kevin Griffin

Ernest T. Reeves

9.4% 16.5% 62.4% 11.7% Sean Haugh

þ

NC Congressional Districts

Filing = March 16 – 25

Primary = June 7

CVBforNCSENATE34REP–16DEMSTRONGDEM(16) COMPETITIVE(4) LEANREP(6) STRONGREP(24)

28 Robinson

Guilford 21 Clark

Hoke 19 Meredith

Cumberland

8 RabonBrunswick 50

DavisMacon 24

GunnAlamance 39

Rucho(NR)Mecklenburg

40 Waddell*

Mecklenburg

5 DavisGreene

1 CookBeaufort

9 Lee*NewHanover 46

DanielBurke 47

HiseMitchell 31

KrawiecForsyth

38 Ford

Mecklenburg 13 Smith*

Robeson 25 McInnis*

Richmond 15 Alexander*Wake 27 Wade

Guilford

2 SandersonPamlico 44

Cur]sLincoln

14 Blue

Wake 23 Foushee

Orange 18 Barefoot

Wake 10 B.Jackson

Sampson 11 Newton

(NR)Wilson

45 Soucek(NR)

Watauga 35 Tucker

Union

20 McKissick

Durham 22 Woodard

Durham 12 Rabin

Harnea

6 BrownOnslow 48

Apodaca(NR)Henderson 42

Wells*Catawba

4 BryantNash 37

J.JacksonMecklenburg 17

BarringerWake 41

TarteMecklenburg 36

Hartsell(NR)Cabarrus 33

Bingham(NR)Davidson

3

Smith-Ingram*Edgecombe

16 Stein(NR)

Wake 26 Berger

Rockingham 43 Harrington

Gaston 30 Randleman

Wilkes

32 Lowe*Forsyth 49 Van

Duyn*Buncombe

*freshman NR = not running in 2016

7 PateWayne 34

BrockDavie 29

TillmanRandolph

9SENATEREPUBLICANWINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INCLBRSD06 SR HarryBrown 95.0SD07 SR LouisM.PateJr. 95.0SD08 LR BillRabon 85.9SD10 LR BrentJackson 95.0SD26 SR PhilBerger 95.0SD29 SR JerryW.Tillman 90.0SD34 SR AndrewCBrock 85.8SD42 SR AndyWells 90.0SD43 SR KathyHarrington 90.0

4SENATEDEMOCRATWINNERSDIST CVB CANDIDATE INCLBR

SD03 SD EricaSmith-Ingram 47.8SD05 SD DonDavis 48.3SD14 SD DanBlue 55.0SD32 SD PaulLoweJr. 45.0

SENATEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY

DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER

SD01 CO 1,165 80.0 èBillCook BrownieFutrell

SD02 SR 3,151 90.0 NormanSanderson DorotheaWhite

SD09 LR 13,579 90.0 MichaelLee AndrewBarnhill

SD12 LR 15,450 90.0 RonaldRabin SusanByerly

SD15 LR 16,411 65.0 JohnAlexander LaurelDeegan-FrickeBradHessell

SD17 LR 27,427 80.0 TamaraBarringer SusanEvansSusanHogarth

SD18 CO 16,934 90.0 ChadBarefoot GilJohnson

SD19 CO 5,560 78.9 WesleyMeredith ToniMorris



SD24 SR 4,950 95.0 RickGunn JohnThorpe

SD25 CO -2,603 90.0 TomMcInnis DannieMontgomery

SD27 SR 9,258 90.0 TrudyWade MichaelGarreaSD30 SR -2,189 90.0 ShirleyRandleman MichaelHolleman

SD41 SR 28,598 90.0 JeffTarte JonathanHudsonChrisCole

SD46 SR -2,428 80.5 WarrenDaniel AnneFischerSD47 SR -1,473 85.8 RalphHise MaryJaneBoydSD50 SR 865 87.5 JimDavis JaneHipps



SD13 SD -553 54.2 JaneW.Smith DannyEarl(JR)Bria

SD20 SD 9,597 32.5 FloydB.McKissick,Jr. BarbaraHowe

SD22 SD 14,891 52.3 MikeWoodard GregDouceae

SD23 SD 11,812 37.2 ValerieP.Foushee MaryLopezCarter

SD28 SD 7,432 28.6 GladysA.Robinson DevinR.King

SD37 SD 15,790 38.2 JeffJackson BobDiamond

SD49 SD 8,910 45.0 TerryVanDuyn WilliamMeredith

SENATEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY

DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER

SD31 SR 5,819 85.8

JoyceKrawiec(I)þ DempseyBrewerPeterAnBnozzi

62.3%

27.3%

10.4%

SD35 SR 16,584 90.8TommyTucker(I)þ MaXDaly

61.6%

38.4%

SD44 SR 8,165 90.0DavidL.Cur]s(I)þChrisCarney

51.1%NicHaag

49.9%

SENATEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY


SD04 SD -3,495 45.0AngelaR.Bryant(I)þ JamesMills

81.2%RichardScoa

18.8%

SD21 SD 5,996 77.5

BenClark(I)þ EronomySmithNaveedAziz

49.9%

DanTravieso5.9%

44.2%

SD38 SD 22,663 70.0JoelFord(I)þ RoderickDavis

52.1%RichardRiveae

47.9%

SD40 SD 12,219 35.8JoyceWaddell(I)þ NasifMajeed

64.6% MargueriteCooke35.4%

OPENSEATRACES–NCSENATEDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULTS

SD11NEWTON(R)

SR

4,638

79.4

BentonSawrey 48.4%RickHornerþ 51.6%AlbertPacer 100%

SD16STEIN(D) SD 17,905

40.0

JayChaudhuriþ 63.1%EllisHankins 36.9%EricWeaver 100%

SD33BINGHAM(R) SR

791

85.8

CathyDunnþ 40.1%JoeD.Kennedy 27.7%EddieGallimore 32.2%JimBeallGraham 100%

SD36HARTSELL(R) SR 14,784 85.5

AndrewW.Platek 34.9%RobertBrownþ 65.1%

AmyBlake 21.4%ParishMoffiX 11.6%

PaulR.Newtonþ 37.0%ScoXC.Aumuller 30.0%

OPENSEATRACES–NCSENATE

DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULTS

SD39RUCHO(R)

SR

13,641 83.0LloydScher 100%

DanBishop 100%

SD45SOUCEK(R) SR -519 85.0

DeannaBallardþ 52.9%

KenBoham 47.1%

ArtSherwood 100%

SD48APODACA

(R)SR 7,675

95.0

ChuckEdwardsþ 56.2%

DennisJusBce 9.9%

LisaCarpenterBaldwin 33.9%

NormanBossert 100%

STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)

29 L. Hall

Durham 114 Fisher

Buncombe 66 Goodman

Richmond 118 Presnell

Yancey 55 Brody

Union 86 Blackwell

Burke 110 Hastings

Gaston 96 Adams*

Catawba

106 Cunningham

Mecklenburg 42 Lucas

Cumberland 39 Jackson

Wake 49 Pendleton*

Wake 14 Cleveland

Onslow 82 Pittman

Cabarrus 77 Warren

Rowan 69 Arp

Union

102 Carney

Mecklenburg 5 Hunter Hertford 50

Meyer Orange 9 Murphy**

Pitt 36 Dollar Wake 15 Shepard

Onslow 98 Bradford*

Mecklenburg 13 McElraft

Carteret

31 Michaux

Durham 32 Baskerville (NR)

Vance LEAN DEM (2) 45 Szoka

Cumberland 40 Avila

Wake 109 Bumgardner

Gaston 91 Hall**

Stokes 81 Brown (NR)

Davidson

33 Gill

Wake 72 Hanes

Forsyth 54 Reives

Lee 63 Ross

Alamance 37 Stam (NR)

Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)

Johnston 74 Conrad

Forsyth 87 Robinson

Caldwell

99 Moore

Mecklenburg 100 Cotham (NR)

Mecklenburg 44 Richardson**

Cumberland 53 Lewis

Harnett 62 Blust

Guilford 16 Millis

Pender 104 Bishop (NR)

Mecklenburg 76 Ford

Rowan

38 Lewis Holley

Wake 23 Willingham*

Edgecombe COMP (8) 93 Jordan

Ashe 111 Moore

Cleveland 83 Johnson

Cabarrus 10 J. Bell

Wayne 95 Fraley

Iredell

60 Brockman*

Guilford 47 Graham

Robeson 119 Queen

Haywood 1 Steinburg Chowan 75

Lambeth Forsyth 19

Davis New Hanover 84

R. Turner Iredell 89

Setzer Catawba

58 Johnson*

Guilford 30 Luebke

Durham 2 Yarborough* Person 65

Jones Rockingham 88

Bryan Mecklenburg 4 Dixon

Duplin 17 Iler

Brunswick 68 Horn

Union

107 Alexander

Mecklenburg 43 Floyd

Cumberland 22 Brisson Bladen 3 Speciale

Craven 25 Collins

Nash 59 Hardister

Guilford 108 Torbett

Gaston 94 Elmore

Wilkes

56 Insko

Orange 21 L. Bell

Sampson 92 Jeter

Mecklenburg 51 Salmon*

Harnett 103 Brawley

Mecklenburg 61 Faircloth

Guilford 105 Schaffer (NR)

Mecklenburg 79 Howard

Davie

24 Farmer-

Butterfield Wilson

7 Richardson Franklin 11

5 Ager* Buncombe 64

Riddell Alamance

Catlin (NR) New Hanover 52

Boles Moore 97

Saine Lincoln

48 Pierce

Scotland 18 Hamilton

New Hanover 6 Tine (NR) Dare 11

6 B. Turner* Buncombe

Hager Rutherford 11

7 McGrady Henderson 85

Dobson McDowell

71 Terry

Forsyth 34 G. Martin

Wake 8 S. Martin Wilson 35

Malone Wake

Whitmire (NR) Transylvania 12

0 West (NR) Cherokee 73

Zachary* Yadkin

57 Harrison

Guilford 12 Graham

Lenoir 41 Adcock*

Wake 28 Langdon (NR)

Johnston 80 Watford

Davidson

27 Wray

Northampton 11 D. Hall

Wake *freshman **appointed NR = not running in 2016

90 Stevens

Surry 70 Hurley

Randolph

101 Earle

Mecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)

Columbus 67 Burr

Stanly 78 McNeill

Randolph

CVBforNCHOUSE74REP–45DEM–1UNA

23HOUSEREPUBLICANWINNERSDISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015LBRHD004 SR JimmyDixon 90.0HD014 SR GeorgeG.Cleveland 75.0HD019 SR TedDavis,Jr. 90.0HD061 SR JohnFaircloth 90.0HD062 SR JohnM.Blust 79.2HD063 LR StephenRoss 92.5HD064 LR DennisRiddell 90.0HD068 SR CraigHorn 85.5HD075 SR DonnyCLambeth 90.0HD076 SR CarlFord 76.7HD078 SR AllenMcNeill 85.8HD079 SR JuliaCravenHoward 80.9HD080 SR SamWaiord 90.0HD085 SR JoshDobson 95.0HD089 SR MitchellSetzer 77.5HD096 SR JayAdams 85.8HD097 SR JasonR.Saine 90.5HD098 SR JohnR.BradfordIII 90.0HD108 SR JohnA.Torbea 95.0HD110 SR KellyHas]ngs 90.0HD111 SR TimMoore 95.0HD112 SR MikeHager 95.0HD117 SR ChuckMcGrady 80.8

19HOUSEDEMOCRATWINNERS

DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015LBRHD005 SD HowardJ.HunterIII 43.2HD012 SD GeorgeGraham 67.5HD023 SD ShellyWillingham 31.1HD029 SD LarryD.Hall 24.1HD031 SD MickeyMichaux,Jr. 35.8HD039 SD DarrenJackson 59.2HD042 SD MarvinW.Lucas 73.0HD043 SD ElmerFloyd 66.7HD048 SD GarlandE.Pierce 49.2HD056 SD VerlaInsko 19.1HD057 SD PriceyHarrison 12.0HD060 SD CecilBrockman 67.5HD066 SD KenGoodman 92.5HD071 SD EvelynTerry 38.2HD072 SD EdHanesJr. 80.9HD099 SD RodneyW.Moore 80.0HD102 SD BeckyCarney 63.3HD106 SD CarlaCunningham 47.3HD114 SD SusanC.Fisher 14.5

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY


HD002 COMP -1,605 85 LarryYarborough JoeParishHD008 COMP 1,861 90 SusanMar]n CharliePaaFarrisHD041 COMP 15,176 54.2 GaleAdcock ChrisShoffnerHD115 COMP 3,778 50 èJohnAger FrankMoretzHD119 COMP 1,119 48.3 JoeSamQueen MikeClampiaHD044 LD 1,998 50 BillyRichardson JimArpHD054 LD 5,531 50 RobertT.ReivesII WesleySeawellHD001 LR 768 92.5 BobSteinburg SamDavisHD003 LR 368 71.7 MichaelSpeciale MarvaFisherBaldwinHD035 LR 14,184 69.2 ChrisMalone TerrenceEveriaHD045 LR 2,902 90 JohnSzoka RobertaWaddle

HD049 LR 2,346 66.8 GaryPendleton CynthiaBallDavidUlmer

HD065 LR -2,516 85.8 BertJones H.KeithDuncan

HD118 LR 508 85.8 MicheleD.Presnell RhondaC.Schandevel

HD051 LR 5,706 76.7 èBradSalmon JohnSauls

HD116 LR 5,296 63.3 BrianTurner KayOlsen

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLYDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT CHALLENGER

HD010 SR 8,137 92.5 JohnR.Bell EvelynPaulHD013 SR 2,265 95.0 PatMcElrak RodneyAlexanderHD015 SR 811 90.0 PhillipShepard DanWhiaenHD016 SR 7,204 81.7 ChrisW.Millis SteveUngerHD025 SR 830 85.5 JeffCollins JimLeeHD040 SR 13,125 73.9 MarilynAvila JoeJohnHD055 SR 683 85.8 MarkBrody KimHargeaHD059 SR 5,676 81.7 JonHardister ScoaJonesHD069 SR 6,387 90.8 DeanArp GordonDanielsHD070 SR 605 85.8 PatB.Hurley LeeBohnsackHD074 SR 1,963 85.8 DebraConrad MarilynBakerHD086 SR -161 85.5 HughBlackwell TimBarnsbackHD088 SR 1,353 92.5 RobBryan MaryBelkHD090 SR -737 90.0 SarahStevens VeraSmithReynoldsHD094 SR -729 85.0 JeffreyElmore MichaelLentzHD103 SR 6,714 90.5 BillBrawley RochelleRivasHD109 SR 1,476 77.5 DanaBumgardner SusanMaxon

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=GENERALONLY


HD007 SD -72 44.2 BobbieJ.Richardson WilliamD.HancockII

HD011 SD 5,646 54.2 DuaneHall BrianLewis

HD018 SD 4,737 68.9 SusiHamilton GeraldBenton

HD030 SD 11,548 11.3 PaulLuebke ElissaFuchs

HD034 SD 2,625 29.1 GrierMar]n BillMorris

HD038 SD 9,300 35.8 YvonneLewisHolley OlenWatsonIII

HD050 SD 6,127 51.8 GraigR.Meyer RodChaney

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARYONLY

DIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT

HD021 SD -8 62.5LarryM.Bell(I)þScoXySmith

85.5%14.5%

HD022 CO 176 90.0WilliamBrisson(I)þBenSnyder

53.5%46.5%

HD024 SD 1,765 42.7 JeanFarmer-Buaerfield(I)þKandieSmith

61.9%38.1%

HD027 SD -3,357 80.0MichaelH.Wray(I)þFranklinWilliamsJr.

52.6%47.4%

HD033 SD 8,249 45.0RosaUGill(I)þBernardAllenIIIShirleyHicks

65.5%12.6%21.9%

HD047 SD 509 55.8CharlesGraham(I)þRandallJones

58.0%42.0%

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY


HD058 SD 1,995 52.3RalphC.Johnson(I)AmosQuickþ

28.6%

71.4%

HD101 SD 10,098 45.0BeverlyMillerEarle(I)þ StevenJones

78.1% Jus]nDunn20.9%

HD107 SD 8,900 58.3KellyAlexander(I)þ RobertBlok

90.5%

9.5%

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARYDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER

HD017 SR 7,812 90.0 FrankIler(I)þMarionDavis

67.8%CharlesWarren

32.2%

HD036 SR 6,399 85.8 NelsonDollar(I)þMarkVillee

55.8% JenniferFerrellBrianIrving44.2%

HD052 SR 4,640 90.0 JamieBoles(I)þJohnZumwalt

53.7%46.3%

HD053 LR 7,740 90.5 DavidR.Lewis(I)þChuckLevorse

78.6%JonBlum

21.4%

HD067 SR -472 81.7 Jus]nP.Burr(I)þLaneBurris

50.9%CarsonR.Snyder

49.1%

HD073 SR -437 95.0 LeeZachary(I)þDwightShook

51.5%48.5%

HD077 SR 140 81.7 HarryWarren(I)þAndrewPoston

71.4%28.6%

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARYDIST CVB POP+/- INCLBR INCUMBENT RESULT CHALLENGER

HD017 SR 7,812 90.0 FrankIler(I)þMarionDavis

67.8%CharlesWarren

32.2%

HD036 SR 6,399 85.8 NelsonDollar(I)þMarkVillee

55.8% JenniferFerrellBrianIrving44.2%

HD052 SR 4,640 90.0 JamieBoles(I)þJohnZumwalt

53.7%46.3%

HD053 LR 7,740 90.5 DavidR.Lewis(I)þChuckLevorse

78.6%JonBlum

21.4%

HD067 SR -472 81.7 Jus]nP.Burr(I)þLaneBurris

50.9%CarsonR.Snyder

49.1%

HD073 SR -437 95.0 LeeZachary(I)þDwightShook

51.5%48.5%

HD077 SR 140 81.7 HarryWarren(I)þAndrewPoston

71.4%28.6%

HOUSEINCUMBENTS=PRIMARY


HD082 SR 9,031 69.2 LarryG.Piaman(I)þMichaelFischer

52.9% EarleSchecter47.1%

HD083 SR 4,343 90.0 LindaP.Johnson(I)þNathanStone

61.6% JeremyHachen38.4%

HD084 SR 1,890 90.0 RenaW.Turner(I)þKirkSherrill

63.8% JohnWayneKahl36.2%

HD087 SR -1,545 87.5GeorgeS.Robinson(I)Des]nHallþ40.3%59.7%

HD092CO15,160 86.7èCharlesJeter(I)þTomDavis

50.2%ChazBeasley

49.8%

HD093 LR 1,326 81.7 JonathanC.Jordan(I)þLewHendricks

73.9%SueCounts

26.1%

HD095 SR 5,348 95.0 JohnA.Fraley(I)þDavidW.Thompson

68.5%31.5%

OPENSEATRACES–NCHOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULT

èHD006TINE(U) CO 238 90.0

JudyJusBce 28.2%WarrenJudgeþ 71.8%AshleyWoolard 36.7%BeverlyBoswellþ 39.3%

HD020CATLIN(R) SR 6,747 78.9

HollyGrangeþ 62.0%TammyCovil 38.0%

HD026DAUGHTRY(R)SR 8,091 95.0

DennisNielsen 40.4%DonnaMcDowellWhiteþ 59.6%RichNixonþ 100%

HD028LANGDON(R) SR 4,368 85.8

JimmieM.Massengill 49.6%PatriciaOliverþ 50.4%GregoryA.Dail 8.1%LarryC.Stricklandþ 50.1%TonyBraswell 41.8%

HD032B’VILLE(D) SD -1,692 40.8

GaryLamontMilesSr 32.7%TerryGarrisonþ 67.3%

OPENSEATRACES–NCHOUSEDISTRICT CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULT

HD37STAM(R) SR 12,046 85.8

LindaHunt-Williams 100%JonathanGraham 100%RobertRose 100%

èHD46WADDELL(D) SD -1,093 85.0

BrendenJones 100%TimBenton 100%Thomas(Tom)HowellJr 100%

HD81R.BROWN(R) SR 663 80.0

LarryW.Poasþ 52.3%SharonPhillipsPearce 20.0%TylerLohrForrest 27.7%

HD100COTHAM(D) SD 1,692 59.3

BillyMaddalon 46.7%JohnAutryþ 53.3%

HD104BISHOP(R) SR 1,417 85.0

AndyDulin 100%PeterNoris 100%

HD105SCHAFFER(R) SR 12,855 85.0

ScoaStoneþ 52.2%TimMorgan 47.8%ConnieGreen-Johnson 100%

OPENSEATRACES–NCHOUSE

DISTRICT CVB POP+/- INCLBR CANDIDATES RESULTS

HD113WHITMIRE(R) SR 757 90.0

CodyHensonþ 64.7%

CotyJamesFerguson 35.3%

MaureenMahanCopelof 100%

HD120WEST(R) SR -573 95.0

EllioXJ.Southworth 26.1%

KevinCorbinþ 73.9%

*HD9B.BROWN(R) LR 3,747 90.0

BrianFarkasþ 61.8%WalterE.Gaskins 38.2%GregMurphy* 100%

*HD91H’WAY(R) SR 1,050 85.8

Ira(Bubba)Tilley 25.6%

KyleHall*þ 43.8%

RobertKnight 30.6%

EugeneRussell 100%

2016 Election – Outcome Overview SR LR COMP LD SD

NC House 74 – 45 – 1 59 14

12R 2D 8

3R 4D 1U 2 37

Winners 28R 2R 1D 29D

INC GEN 23R 9R 2D 6 3R 3D

2D 8D

NC Senate 34 – 16 24 6 4R 0 16

Winners 9R 2R 4D INC GEN 9R 4R 4R 11D

2016 Election: Likely Partisan Outcome Current Partisan

Count Strong REP

Lean REP COMP

Lean DEM

Strong DEM

NC House 74 – 45 – 1 59 14 8

3R 4D 1U 2 37

NC House Jan 2017

71 PROB

2 LIKELY

4 TOSS UP

4 LIKELY

39 PROB

NC Senate 34 – 16 24 6 4

4 GOP 0 16

NC Senate Jan 2017

26 PROB

7 LIKELY

1 TOSS UP

0 LIKELY

16 PROB

@NCFEF

Statewide Executive Branch G

OV Roy Cooper – 68.8%

Ken Spaulding – 32.2%

Pat McCrory – 81.8% Robert Brawley – 10.6% Charles K. Moss – 7.7%

Lon Cecil

LT G

OV

Linda Coleman – 51.1% Holly Jones – 28.8%

Robert E. Wilson – 10.5% Ronald Newton – 9.6%

Dan Forest JJ Summerell

AG

OP

EN

Josh Stein –53.5% Marcus Williams – 46.5%

Buck Newton – 54.9% Jim O’Neill – 45.1%

INS

Wayne Goodwin Mike Causey – 41.2%

Joe McLaughlin – 32.9% Ron Pierce – 25.9%

Statewide Executive Branch A

UD

Beth Wood Chuck Stuber

SO

S

Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia – 61.6%

A.J. Daoud – 38.4%

LAB

Charles Meeker – 56.6% Mazie Ferguson – 43.4% Cherie Berry

AG

R

Walter Smith Steve Troxler – 68.8% Andy Steven – 31.2%

SP

I June Atkinson – 79.8% Henry Pankey – 20.2%

Mark Johnson – 53.4% Rosemary Stein – 32.8% J. Wesley Sills – 13.8%

ST

OP

EN

Dan Blue III – 58.5% Ron Ellmer – 41.5% Dale Folwell

Statewide Executive Branch G

OV

Roy Cooper (68.8%) Pat McCrory

(81.8%) Lon Cecil

LT G

OV

Linda Coleman (51.1%) Dan Forest JJ Summerell

AG

O

PE

N

Josh Stein (53.5%) Buck Newton (54.9%)

INS

Wayne Goodwin Mike Causey (41.2%)

AU

D

Beth Wood Chuck Stuber

SO

S

Elaine Marshall Michael LaPaglia (61.6%)

LAB

Charles Meeker (56.6%) Cherie Berry

AG

R

Walter Smith Steve Troxler (68.8%)

SP

I

June Atkinson (79.8%) Mark Johnson (53.4%)

ST

O

PE

N

Dan Blue III (58.5%) Dale Folwell

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

Cooper Victory

Strong US Senate

Candidate

DEM Prez Candidate Fights for

NC Suburbs = Domestic

Issues

McCrory

Victory

Voters Positive on

NC Economy

Parity in Outside $

No GOP Fracture over Prez

@NCFEF

2012: 50.6% 48.8% 1.0%

2016 Election: State Supreme Court

Voters will cast their ballot to to determine whether to retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds

(Guilford)

@NCFEF

Linda H. Stephens - D 1st Term (Wake)

Phil Berger, Jr. Orange - REP

Bob Hunter - R 1st Term [2014] (Guilford)

Abe Jones

Wake – DEM

Richard Dietz - R 1st Term (Forsyth)

Vince Rozier Wake – DEM

Valerie Zachary - R 1st Term [2015] (Yadkin)

Rickye McKoy-Mitchell Mecklenburg – DEM

2016 Election: Court of Appeals

@NCFEF

What to watch?

þ  How GOP nomination process plays out

¥  Impact on ‘enthusiasm gap’

þ  If Trump is the GOP nominee, how does that impact NC’s GOP candidates

¥  May put NC (more) in play

þ  Significance of GOP infighting

¥  Within GOP House Caucus, within GOP HQ

What to watch?

þ  Does US Senate race become a target

¥  Don’t think so, except that NC = purple

þ  Will resources matter most in Legislative races

¥  Yes

þ  Will a strong GOP slate for Council of State help up-ballot candidates?

¥  Couldn’t hurt


Questions?

Joe Stewart Executive Director

[email protected] (919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

Government & Nonprofit

2016 ncfef post primary briefing