A REPORT SAMPLE CURIOUS TRENDS: THE FOOD INDUSTRY 2015 The Year of Transition

The past year in the food industry has been a year of

transitions. The consumer is moving from paper to digital

lists. Price has risen as a consideration both at the grocery

and when selecting a restaurant and Millennials are

impacting food consumption behavior.

Methodology900 M/F 18-99 over 4 quarters (a full year of data)

U.S. only; Quotaed to Census for age, gender and ethnicity

At least 50% responsibility for grocery shopping, meal planning, choosing restaurants when dining out OR in, preparing meals in the home OR planning parties or events in the home

Q2 2015Q3 2015

Q1 2015

Q4 2015

Q4 2014

TechnoAssistance

The digital revolution continues to

impact how the consumer

communicates food-related

comments and what they may eat.

However, they are also embracing

technologies that affect how they

shop the category.

THREE TRENDS THAT WILL CHANGE THE FOOD INDUSTRY:

SeasonalImpact

Consumers have moved beyond the

expected seasonalities, such as

shopping for Thanksgiving or

Christmas, to the seasons having an

impact on what channels they shop

and even where in the store they

begin their journey.

2CautiousGrazing

Grazing, that is eating more small

meals, continues to be a trend;

however, it must be understood that

while portion sizes have increased,

there is rising concern from

consumers over the quality of what

goes into their bodies.

1 3

4

CautiousGrazing

1

Small Portion

BreakfastsAre Getting

Bigger!

30%

10%32%

6%

Large Portion

The 4th Meal Continues

18%

25%

33%

40%

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

31% 32% 31%

24%

29%

19%22% 21%

19%21%

Eat either a small portion or normal portion 4th mealMillennials: same question

When thinking about your meal habits, which of the following best describes you? I eat a 4th Meal which is (select portion size).

In 2015 these are the times consumers reported they snack:

The Day in Snacking

56% 69% 61% 40%Morning Afternoon Evening Midnight

When thinking about your meal habits, which of the following best describes you? I eat a snack in the (morning, afternoon, evening, midnight).

Variety

Resistance to Monotony

10%

20%

30%

40%

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

9% 8% 7% 6% 7%

27% 26%28%

31%34%

Disagree Strongly disagree

Mainstream  consumers  are  adopting  a  resistant  attitude  toward  eating  the  same  food  meal  after  meal.    

While  those  who  strongly  disagree  with  this  belief  statement  have  decreased  modestly,  those  who  disagree  have  risen  significantly.  

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? I usually eat the same types of foods at every meal.

The move from fringe to mainstream

Health

When it comes to the time spent making selections, consumers spend more time making decisions in the meat & seafood sections than in any other sections of the grocery. The produce section comes in second.

The Shopping Journey

20%Produce

30%Meat & Seafood

Thinking about your typical route through the store, in which of the following sections do you spend the most time making your selections?

Health Becoming Top of Mind

15%

30%

45%

60%

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

37%

48% 46% 48% 51%

36% 33%27%

32%27%

Strongly agree Agree

While  about  60%  of  people  consider  themselves  healthy,  concern  over  food  consumed  is  moving  mainstream  with  a  significant  rise  in  agreement  with  the  statement,  “I  care  what  I  put  in  my  body.”  

The  current  top  2  box  score  is  78%.

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I care what I put in my body.”

47%

43%GMO Concern

on the Rise

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I care what I put in my body.”

TOP 2 BOX

Price

32%

27%

Rising Concern

AboutIncreased

Food PricesThinking about food in general, please rate your level of concern with the following. “Increases in food prices”

VERY CONCERNED

48%

55%

63%

70%

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

50% 51%

60%62%

59%

T2B

While  they  are  are  specifically  concerned  about  food  prices,  respondents  reported  they  have  a  rising  concern  about  the  economy  and/or  ability  to  provide  for  their  families  in  general.

Thinking about food in general, please rate your level of concern with the following. Economy/Ability to provide for your family

Financial Concerns Deepen

24.5%

29%

33.5%

38%

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

32%30%

38% 38%36%

Stongly Agree

Shopping Motivations 17

There  was  an  increase  in  those  who  “strongly  agree”  with  a  money  savings  goal  statement  indicating  the  year  ended  with  even  greater  concern  about  food  cost  than  when  it  began.

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “My number one goal when shopping is to save as much money as possible.”

Restaurant Motivations: Price vs. Menu

42.5%

55%

67.5%

80%

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

53% 53%

60%66%

62%

71%65%

59%64%

56%

Menu Price

Midyear  respondents  began  to  report  that  price  had  become  the  most  important  factor  when  selecting  a  restaurant.  Previously,  menu  selections  had  been  the  most  important.

Thinking about the times you dine out as a family, which of the following have the strongest influence when determining the choice of restaurant?

SeasonalImpact

2

American Food Seasons

Winter Spring Summer Fall

More ethnically adventurous

How they shop How they prepareHow they eat

Fewer overall shopping trips

More home-prepared mealsShop more at specialty stores Shop more at local markets

More time planning meals

Begin shopping in bakery Sourcing less importantSourcing less important

More shopping for comfort food

Meal replacement more common

More carb watching

There are some surprising trends throughout the year. While we expect holidays to impact shopping behavior, seasonality also affects many other behaviors such as carb watching, beginning a shopping trip in the bakery section, sourcing sensitivity and others.

People  are  more  likely  to  be  ethnically  adventurous  in  winter,  while  they  more  likely  to  seek  familiar  or  comfort  foods  in  April–June.    

Additionally,  respondents  show  higher  enjoyment  seeking  out  new  recipes  in  July–September.

The Flavor Seasons

56.25%

62.5%

68.75%

75%

Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15

61% 60%

64% 63%

59%

67%

72% 71%73%

69%67%

66%

61%

65% 66%

T2B: I love ethnically diverse foods and enjoy trying things from other countries.I enjoy seeking out new recipes.I am a creature of habit and stick to the foods I like.

EthnicSeason

EthnicSeason

AdventureSeason

FamiliarSeason

Taken from three different belief statement questions about food preferences.

While  the  grocery  store  is  still  king,  U.S.  consumers  are  visiting  specialty  stores  more  in  the  winter  (7%  in  Q4  2014  and  6%  in  Q4  2015  compared  to  4%  and  5%  in  other  seasons).  And,  no  surprise,  consumers  visit  local  markets  more  in  the  spring  (Q2).  

Specialty StoresSeasonality

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

7%

5%

4% 4%

6%

Specialty Store Visits

Now please think about the food you purchase for your household. Please select the one type of store where you shop most often for food.

People  are  more  likely  to  venture  out  to  a  variety  of  types  of  stores  in  Jan.–Mar.  meaning,  they  are  more  likely  to  shop  at  several  stores  to  find  the  things  they  need.

The Variety Shopping Season

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

15%

21%

15%16%

13%

No, I like to go to different stores depending on my needs/desires.

Thinking about the store that you shop most often, would you say you go to the exact same store every time you shop?

The  consumers  response  to  the  belief  statement,  “I  try  to  buy  foods  that  are  grown  or  produced  locally…”  at  61%  T2B  agreement,  has  an  impact  on  Club  and  specialty  stores  lose  consumers  to  local  markets  and  home  growers  during  spring  quarter  (Q2).  

Local’s Impact

54%

58%

61%

65%

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

59%58%

61%

59%

57%

T2B - I try to buy foods that are grown or produced locally

How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements? I try to buy foods that are grown or produced locally (in the region where I live).

Time  spent  planning  meals  is  also  affected  by  the  changing  seasons.  Consumers  reported  that  more  time  goes  into  planning  meals  during  spring  and  summer  than  in    (4.4  and  4.5  mean  hours  respectively  on  average  spent  each  week).

Meal Planning Time

2

4

5

6

Q4 '14OND

Q1 '15JFM

Q2 '15AMJ

Q3 '15JAS

Q4 '15OND

3.8 3.74.4 4.5

3.9

Hours spent planning meals weekly

On average, how many hours do you spend planning your meals each week?

thank you.Contact:  Jeff  Dattilo  Email:  jdattilo@curiosity360.com