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Water - Cause of Future Conflict?Scope
1 Introduction
2 Global State of Water as a Resource
3 Factors Affecting Distribution of Water
4 Ongoing Distribution/Sharing Conflicts
5 Situation in Sub-continent
6 Measures Towards Conflict Resolution
7 Analysis and Recommendations
8 Conclusion
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Ban Ki-moonUN Secretary GeneralFirst Asia-Pacific WaterSummit, Beppu Japan,Dec 2007
”Water scarcity threatenseconomic and social gains andis a potential fuel for wars andconflicts”
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Ban Ki-moon
PremiseFreshwater is a necessity
Supply is fluctuating
Demand is increasing
Humans and nations arecompeting to secure thislimited resource
Result: potential conflict
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Sequence : detailed
1 IntroductionTerminologyStatistics
2 IssuesSocio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
3 SolutionsSocio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
4 Wrap-upAnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
WaterViews
Prof Andras Szollosi-NagyRector, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water EducationFormer Director, Division of Water, UNESCO
If humanity can avoid nuclear holocaust in the 21st century,then water is going to be the most important issue to dealwith.
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Interaction
ConflictA serious disagreement or argument, typically aprotracted one. 1
1http://www.oxforddictionaries.com
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Hydroelectric Power
Run-of-the-riverA type of hydro-electric generation whereby little orno water storage is provided. 1
1http://www.reservoircapitalcorp.com/s/WhatIsRunOfRiver.asp
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water
River BasinThe area of land thatcontributes water to astream or river is called awatershed,river/drainage/catchmentbasin. 1
1http://www.kidsgeo.com/geology-for-kids/0076-drainage-basins-watersheds.php
2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage basin
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Latoria River drainage basin shaded inlight green, Romania. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water
Wetland
Land consisting of marshes or swamps. 1
Riparian
Something related to or situated on the banks of ariver. 1
1http://www.oxforddictionaries.com
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water
Pakistan, India and the Indus River
India: upper riparian statePakistan: lower riparian state
Punjab, Sindh and the Indus River
Punjab: upper riparian provinceSindh: lower riparian province
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water
Renewable resourceA resource which is replaced naturally and can beused again. 1
In this sense, water is a renewable resource.
1http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable resource
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water
FreshwaterWater having a low salt concentration - usually lessthan 1%. 1
1http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/exhibits/biomes/freshwater.php
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water
Per capita water resources per year
The amount of water available to an individual for ayear.
For instance, for Pakistan in 2011, the per capita waterresources per year are
247 km3
176 million= 247,000 million m3
176 million= 1, 400 m3 per capita per year 1 2
1Peter H Gleick et al. (2014). The World’s Water : The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources. Vol. 8.
Island Press2
World Bank, United States Census Bureau. url: http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water
Related to per capita water resources per year aretwo terms:
Moderate to severe stress
Less than 1700 m3 waterper capita per year
Water scarce
Less than 1000 m3 waterper capita per year
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Per Capita Water Resources per YearGlobal View (2008)
Total renewable water resources in m3 per capita per year. 1 2
1The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2010). Total Renewable Water
Resources per Capita by Country. url: http://chartsbin.com/view/14702
GreenFacts (2005). Water Availability Information for Pakistan. url:http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-resources/figtableboxes/aquastat133.htm
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water and Geology
Aquifer
Anundergroundlayer ofwater-bearingrock. 1
1National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:
http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1
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Aquifer.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water and Geology
Water TableThe top of thewater level inan aquifer. 1
1National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:
http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1
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Water Table.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to Water and Geology
GroundwaterGroundwater is the water that seeps into the earthand is stored in aquifers. 1
There is 100 times more water in the ground than isin all the world’s rivers and lakes2
2US Geological Survey, Water Science School. Earth’s Water: Groundwater. url:
http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html1
http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/freshwater/groundwater/
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
DefinitionsRelated to the Environment
Green-house EffectThe trapping of the sun’s warmth in a planet’slower atmosphere. 1
1http://www.oxforddictionaries.com
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
UnitsVolume and Flow Rate
Volume
1 MAF (1 million acre foot)= 1 million acres × 1 foot= 1 million × 66 ft × 660 ft × 1 foot = 43,560 million ft3
≈ 1.2 km3
Flow Rate
1 cusec = 1 ft3/sec = 28 litres/sec = 0.028 m3/sec
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ProcessWater Cycle
Water Cycle. All units are in cubic km. 1
1http://www.elic.ucl.ac.be/textbook/chapter2 node9.html
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
Distribution of WaterNature’s Division
Oceans: 97%Fresh water: 3%
Surface water: 1%Ground water: 22%Frozen: 77%
Water distribution. 1
1http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/h2o1.htm
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
TerminologyStatistics
Distribution of FreshwaterOur Division
70 to 80%: agriculture
10 to 20%: industry
10%: households
Global sum of all withdrawals. 1
1http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water use/index.stm
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Done with anintroduction.
Now, let’s lookat the issues.
1http://www.toonpool.com/cartoons/Hoping for water 144156
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Hoping for Water. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandTrends
During the last halfcentury, per capitaresources have fallen
S. Asia: 40% to 50%Africa: 60% to 80%
Developing countries,increasing demand
Developed countries,decreasing demand
1www.capsweb.org
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More demand, less water. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandTrends
Climate change willincrease water resources
Shifts in rainfall will makematters worse for waterstressed countries
1www.capsweb.org
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More demand, less water. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandRising Population and Growing Cities
World population: 2x to4x
Richer people need morewater
Over half of the world’spopulation live in cities
1www.forbes.com
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Growing cities. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandAgriculture
Global water use isdominated by agriculture
Irrigation can easilydouble crop yields
Just 18% of cropland isirrigated, but it produces40% of the world’s food
1oldwww.morningside.edu
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Agriculture. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandAgriculture: Problems
Wasteful practices
Thirsty crops
Destruction of the soil,especially throughsalinization
Pollution of surface andgroundwater by fertilizers,herbicides and pesticides
1kaleandeggs.com
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Spraying pesticides. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandAgriculture
Agricultural products account for nearly 70 to80% of global water useIn the world as a whole, rice is the staplecarbohydrateSaving of over 3 million litres of water per tonneof growing potatoes as compared to rice
Rice
21% of world water used
To grow one tonne: 3400 m3
Potatoes
1% of world water used
To grow one tonne: 250 m3
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandIndustry
Consumes 10% to 20% ofglobal water use
Developed countries,declining industrial wateruse
Developing countries,increasing industrial wateruse
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Industry. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Supply and DemandSummary
Rise in global demand for water shows no sign ofabating
Agriculture is the prime user
Urbanization is demanding more
Industrial demand is in check in most developingcountries
Industrial demand is growing in many parts of thedeveloping world
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PovertyWater Problems
Migrants heading for thecities
Shanty towns foci fordisease and desperation
No piped connections
Poverty and Water. 1
1amoberg1.wordpress.com
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Water TradingReal vs Virtual
Real water: bottled water
Drop in the oceancompared with ”virtualwater”
Virtual water is waterneeded to grow crops andfodder, for animals todrink, and food processing
1www.waterdeva.com
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Virtual Water Trading. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Water TradingImplications of Virtual Water Trading for National Security
Implications are importantfor national security
Countries in WesternEurope, Japan, Korea andthe Middle East aredependent on virtualwater imports
1www.waterdeva.com
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Virtual Water Trading. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
TerrorismWater Supply Disruption
Disruption or poisoning ofwater supplies as a weapon
WWI, 1915, German troopspoisoned wells as they retreatedfrom Windhoek, NamibiaWWII, 1945, German troopsblew up a dyke in HollandWWII, British dam busteraircraft attacked the Germandams
1thinkprogress.org
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Water Terrorism. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
ProblemsGeneral
Fragmentedresponsibilities
Ineffective management
Overlapping interests andinter-institutional rivalry
Private profit-making
1apievangelist.com
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Bad governance characteristics. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
ProblemsGeneral
Lack of coordinationbetween upstream anddownstream users
Inappropriate politicalinterference
Poor legal structures
Lack of enforcementmechanisms
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Bad governance characteristics.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
ProblemsGeneral
Historical water rightsinhibiting fairer waterdistribution
Lack of public orstakeholder involvement
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Bad governance characteristics.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
ProblemsCommunist Countries
Over-centralization
Underfunding
Lack of performanceincentives and jobs for lifefor Party members
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Bad governance characteristics.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
ProblemsLaissez-faire Capitalist Countries
Too much fragmentationamong institutions
Excessive profit motive
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Bad governance characteristics.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
CorruptionExample
Poor governance andinstitutional corruption
Added to woes of people
Example is Ethiopia
1www.bridgehousecollege.com
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Corruption. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Dams and DiversionsOverview
Fundamental tools ofwater engineering
Create and enhance waterresources
Lifeblood of civilization
1www.dawn.com
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Tarbela Dam. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Dams and DiversionsUses
There are more than45,000 large dams
One Half: IrrigatedagricultureOne third: Principally forhydropowerOne-eight: Public watersupply
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Tarbela Dam.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Dams and DiversionsDisadvantages
Destruction of theenvironment, especiallyendangered ecosystems
Displacement of people
Destruction of traditionallivelihoods
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Tarbela Dam.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Dams and DiversionsDisadvantages
Riparian rights (Punjab vsSindh)
Serious impact on riversand wildlife
Withhold sediment andnutrients
Block migratory fish
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Tarbela Dam.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Dams and DiversionsDisadvantages
Decimate fish life
Allow temperatures to riseand cause deoxygenationof the water
Dam failure,1975 Banqiao Dam,1979 Machchhu Dam
1http://bigdreamz.in/savemykerala/site/?articles=dam-disasters
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Banqiao Dam failure. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PrivatizationImpetus
1948: General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade(GATT)
1980s: Reagan andThatcher
1995: World TradeOrganization (WTO)
1h20privatization.blogspot.com
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Privatizing water. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PrivatizationAdvantages
Funding for ageing andinefficient infrastructure
Better managers
Competition
Reduction in prices
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Privatizing water.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PrivatizationDisadvantages
The model does not fitwater as well as mostcommodities
Too important to beplaced in the privatesector
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Privatizing water.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
EcosystemsDestruction
Twentieth centurydevelopment ignored linkbetween landscape andwater resources
1www.biodiversityofindia.org
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Wetlands, Moscow Russia. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
EcosystemsDestruction
Draining of wetlands
Destruction of forests
Intensive agriculture
Herbicides and pesticides
Large-scale engineering oflandscape
1www.biodiversityofindia.org
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Wetlands, Moscow Russia. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
EcosystemsDestruction
Overfishing
Destruction of aquaticenvironments
River engineering
1jmsc.hku.hk
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Overfishing. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
EcosystemsIrrigation and Salination
Irrigation has causedsalination of soil andwater since ancient times
Egypt, after completion ofAswan Dam
Desert reclaimed foragricultureThen lost to salinization
1www.knowledgebank.irri.org
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Salinity. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pollution and DiseaseNeglect
During the twentiethcentury, population grewthree-fold
Water use increasedsix-fold
Water treatment failed tokeep pace
1www.enciclopediapr.org
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Water Pollution. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pollution and DiseaseAgriculture
In developed countries,agriculture taking overfrom industry as thegreatest source of waterpollution
Spraying pesticides, herbicides andfertilizer. 1
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green Revolution
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pollution and DiseaseAgriculture: Green Revolution
Green Revolution (also inPakistan) 2
Between the 1940s andthe late 1960s
R&D and technologytransfer initiatives
Widespread pollution Spraying pesticides, herbicides andfertilizer.
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green Revolution
2Akmal Hussain (2012). “The Green Revolution”. In: The Oxford Companion to Pakistani History. Ed. by
Ayesha Jalal. Oxford University Press, Karachi. url: www.akmalhussain.net/Publish%20Work/data/3.pdf
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pollution and DiseaseAgriculture: Nitrates and Disease
Nitrates from agriculturalfertilizers
Cancer of brain andcentral nervous system
Spraying pesticides, herbicides andfertilizer.
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Global WarmingTemperature Dependence
Global water resources arehighly sensitive totemperaturesReasons
EvaporationEffects on wind patternsConvectionRainfall distribution
1benthamsciencepublishers.wordpress.com
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Global Warming. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Global WarmingSlide
Broad agreement amongall major Global ClimateModels
Warming is likely tocontinue
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Global Warming. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Global WarmingCauses of Climate Change
Natural causes
Solar activity
Volcanic activity
Human activities
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Global Warming. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Global WarmingGreenhouse Gases
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Water vapor (mostimportant)
1www.architecture.com
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Greenhouse Effect. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Global WarmingPredicted Changes
Average annual water resources
Seasonal changes
Shift from snow to rain
Tropical storms and hurricanes
Impact on groundwater
Sea level rise
Storm surge floods
Sea ice and sea level rise
Falling lake levels1
onmilwaukee.com
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Storm. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Water ConflictMost Apparent
The most obvious form ofconflict related to water
Around the world
1www.aljazeera.com
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Fighting in Sudan over water. 1
Water Conflicts in Recorded HistoryFrom 3000 BC till Present
A total of 343 water conflicts have been recorded all over theworld between 3000BC and 2014. 1
1Pacific Institute. Water Conflict Chronology Map. url: http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/
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River BasinsDistribution Around the World
The 25 major river basins of the world 1 out of a total of 260. 2
1GRID-Arendal. Main Worlds River Basins. url:
http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3226.aspx2
Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, FosterCooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for-
water-bureau-in-washington/
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River BasinsAsia
Asian water basins. 1 2
1International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (2012). A Strategy and Results
Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 32
World Resources SIM Center (2010). Asian River Basins. url:http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins
Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
AustraliaMurder Over Water Restrictions
Sydney, 2007
66-year-old watering the frontlawn of his house
Watering allowed only two daysa week
Incident happened on allowedday
36-year old gets into disputeand kills older man
1http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-01/man-charged-with-murder-after-lawn-watering-dispute/712826
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Debate about water restrictionsturn deadly. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
North AmericaViolent Protests in Canada
Canada, 2013
Elsipogtog First Nation
Protest over the impacts tolocal water resources fromfracking operations
Several injuries were reportedand six police cars burned
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsipogtog First Nation
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Protests against fracking. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
South AmericaAmazon River Basin
Brazil’s controversial $13 billionBelo Monte dam
River Xingu, tributary ofAmazon River
Indigenous groups fear harm totheir way of life
Environmentalists warn ofdeforestation, greenhouse gasemissions and irreparabledamage to the ecosystem.
1http://blogs.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/deforestation/
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Amazon River Basin. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
EuropeDanube River Basin
Gabkovo Nagymaros Dams onDanube
Conflict between Hungary andSlovakia
Hungary tried to terminateproject on economic andenvironmental grounds
International Court of Justiceintervenes
Not resolved1
http://www.slovakia.org/history-gabcikovo.htm
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Danube River Basin. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
AfricaNile River Basin
Sudan Civil War from 1983to 2005
Access to key resources,mainly water
1http://wwf.panda.org/about our earth/about freshwater/rivers/nile/
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Nile Basin. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Middle EastJordan River Basin
Point of contention betweenIsrael and neighbors
Israel fought Six-Day Warof 1967 in large part tosecure water supplies
Pre-empt plans by Syriaand Jordan to damYarmouk River
1http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2010/08/01/jesus baptism river may be too toxic for modern baptisms/
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Jordan River Valley conflict. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PakistanStatistics: Area 1
Total: 796,095 km2
36th largest in the world
Land: 770,880 km2 ≈ 34 mill. km2
Water: 25,220 km2 ≈ 140 mill. km2
30:1, land:water
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Area comparison of Pakistan witheastern United States. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PakistanRivers
Pakistan and West IndiaSix major rivers
PakistanIndus, Jhelum, Chenab
IndiaRavi, Sutlej, Beas
1http://www.opinion-maker.org/2010/08/pakistan-say-no-to-floods/
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Pakistan: Rivers. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PakistanIndus River
Origin: Tibet
Length: 3200 Km
Discharge rate: 6,600m3/sec
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html2
http://earth.imagico.de/large.php?site=indus2
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Valley of the Indus River betweenNanga Parbat on the right and the
Karakoram Mountains at thehorizon. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PakistanJhelum River
Origin: Jammu and KashmirLength: 725 Km 1
Discharge rate: 222 m3/sec
Verinag Spring in Jammu and Kashmir is believed to be the chief source. 2
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum River
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verinag
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Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PakistanChenab River
Origin: HimachalPradesh, India
Length: 960Km 1
Discharge rate:800 m3/sec
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab River
2https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2443/3762338923 a3770387d5 z.jpg
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Formed from the confluence of Chandra and BhagaRivers, Himachal Pradesh. 2
IntroductionIssues
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Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PakistanTarbela Dam (Topi, KPK)
Details 1
Construction: 1968-1977
River: Indus
Type: Storage
Storage: 14.3 km3
Discharge (main): 18,406 m3/s
Discharge (aux): 24,070 m3/s
Capacity: 3478 MW
1Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2002). Tarbela Dam. url:
http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/pgeneration-dam-tarbela.html2
http://kbdam.blogspot.com/
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Location of Tarbela Dam. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
PakistanMangla Dam, (Mangla, Azad Kashmir)
Details 1
Construction: 1961-1967
River: Jhelum
Type: Storage
Storage: 9 km3
Discharge (main): 28,000 m3/s
Discharge (emerg.): 6,500 m3/s
Capacity: 1000 MW
1Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2010). Mangla Dam. url:
http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html2
http://kbdam.blogspot.com/
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Location of Mangla Dam. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: GDP in millions, 2013 1
1 US: $16,720 (3.4%)2 EU: $15,850 (3.6%)3 China: $13,390 (4.3%)4 India: $4,990 (11.5%)5 Japan: $4,729 (12.1%)6 Germany: $3,227 (17.8%)7 Russia: $2,553 (22.5%)
...
27 Pakistan: $574 (100%)1
Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Debt and Population 1
Public debt as % of GDP (2013)Pakistan: 54.6 (57th descending order)India: 51.8 (63rd descending order)
Population growth rate (2014)Pakistan: 1.49% (84th in descending order)India: 1.25% (94th in descending order)
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Average rainfall/year, 2000-2014
Highest: 3240 mm (Colombia)
Average: 1157 mm
Lowest: 51 mm (Egypt)
India: 1083 mm (85th)
Pakistan: 494 mm (143rd)
1http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM
2Pakistan Meteorological Department Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC). Pakistan Mean Rainfall,
1971-2000. url: http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf
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62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
24° N
26° N
28° N
30° N
32° N
34° N
36° N
Astore
Bunji
Ghari Dupatta
GilgitGupis
Kotli
Muzaffarabad
Skardu
Barkhan
DalbandinKalat
Khuzdar
Panjgur
Quetta
Zhob
Balakot
Cherat
ChilasChitral
Dir
Drosh
Kakul
Parachinar
Saidu Sharif
Murree
Hill Station
Jiwani
Lasbella
OrmaraPasni
Sibi
D.I.Khan
Kohat
Peshawar
Rafiqui
Risalpur
Bahawalnagar
Bhawalpur
Faisalabad
Islamabad
Jhelum
Khanpur
Lahore
Mianwali
Multan
Sargodha
Sialkot
Badin
ChhorHyderabad
Jacobabad
Karachi
LarkanaMoenjodaro
Nawabshah
Padidan
Rohri
Plain Station
A R A B I A N S E A
C H I N A
*(Based on 1971-2000)
I R A N
ANNUALMean* Rainfall (mm)
0 mm
200 mm
400 mm
600 mm
800 mm
1000 mm
1200 mm
1400 mm
1600 mm
1800 mm
CDPC
, Pakistan M
eteorological D
epartment
Pakistan mean annual rainfall from1971 to 2000 is 240 mm. 2
IntroductionIssues
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Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Renewable water resources 1 2
Total (2011)Pakistan: 247 km3
India: 1911 km3
Per capita per yearPakistan: 1,038 m3 (2008)India: 613 m3 (2010)
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html2
Central Intelligence Agency (2014a). The World Fact Book, India. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html
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Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Dams 1
1 China: 23,8422 USA: 9,2653 India: 5,102
...
30 Pakistan: 154
Size 1:4
Dams 1:33
1http://www.icold-cigb.org/gb/world register/general synthesis.asp?IDA=206
2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of rivers of Pakistan
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Pakistan, major dams andbarrages. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam
Details 1
Location: Jammu andKashmir
Construction: 1999-2008
River: Chenab
Type: Run-of-the-river
Capacity: 900 MW
1Prof. Raymond Lafitte (2007). Baglihar Hydroelectric Plant, Expert Determination. World Bank. url:
http://water.worldbank.org/publications/indus-waters-treaty-articles-and-annexures-baglihar-
decision-expert-determination2
Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, FosterCooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for-
water-bureau-in-washington/
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Location of Baglihar Dam. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam: Dispute
CIA World Fact Bookmentions this as atransnational dispute 1
1999: Pakistan claimedviolation of Indus WaterTreaty
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar Dam
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Baglihar Dam. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam: Ruling by Neutral Expert
2005: Pakistan asked WorldBank for neutral expert (NE) 1
2007: NE upheld some ofPakistan’s objections
Reduction of pond capacityReduction of dam height
1Usman Ahmad. The Inventory of Conflict & Environment (ICE), American University, Washington DC. url:
http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar Dam
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Baglihar Dam. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam: Ruling by Neutral Expert
Non-gated control of spillwayrejected
India allowed storage of up to26,000 acre feet to flushsediments 1
Pakistan government expresseddisappointment
Both governments have agreedto abide by the final verdict
1Sardar Muhammad Tariq (2010). Pakistan-India Relations, Implementation of Indus Water Treaty, A
Pakistani Narrative. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency. url:http://www.pildat.org/Publications/publication/FP/PakistanIndiaRelations-ImplementationofIndus-
WaterTreaty-APakistaniNarrative.pdf2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar Dam
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Baglihar Dam. 2
IntroductionIssues
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Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaKishanganga Dam
Details 1
Location: Jammu andKashmir, India
Start: 2007-2016 (exp)
River: Kishanganga(Neelum)
Type: Run-of-the-river
Capacity: 330 MW
1Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, Foster
Cooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for-
water-bureau-in-washington/2
http://pak-today.blogspot.com/2013/02/kishanganga.html
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Location of Kishanganga Dam. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaKishanganga Dam: Dispute
Diversion of water toIndia
Diverted water returnedto Pakistan
Before return,downstream NeelumJhelum HydropowerPlant affected
1http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/
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Diversion of water for Kishanganga Dam. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs IndiaKishanganga Dam: Ruling by International Court of Arbitration (ICA)
2011: Pakistan protest
Construction halted
2013: India allowed tobuild
India to maintain9 m3/second (cumecs)of water
1http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/
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Diversion of water for Kishanganga Dam. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs AfghanistanStoring Water on the Kabul River: India’s Intervention
India plans to assistAfghanistan with waterprojects on Kabul River
13 dams planned
Total water storagecapacity of 4.7 MAF
25% more than that ofMangla Dam 1
1http://www.dawn.com/news/673055/sharing-water-resources-with-afghanistan
1pakhto-pakhtun.blogspot.com
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Kabul River. 2
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs AfghanistanStoring Water on the Kabul River: Pros and Cons
AdvantagesFlood controlElectricity generationIrrigated land of 12,000acres will increase by14,000 acres
Disadvantage: impactIran, Pakistan, Uzbekistanand Turkmenistan
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Kabul River.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs AfghanistanStoring Water on the Kabul River: Effect on Pakistan
17 MAF water entersPakistan through theKabul River every year
Supply will decrease by16% to 17%
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Kabul River.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Problems
High water losses
Drainage problems
Water-logging
Salinity
Mineralization of groundwater
1www.pakistankakhudahafiz.com
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Pakistan. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Problems
Inter-provincial disputesIndus water apportionmentKalabagh Dam
Dramatic fall in wateravailability (per capita peryear)
1947: 5,000 m3
current: under 1,000 m3
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Pakistan.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Problems
Dependence on IndusBasin
Over-exploitation ofgroundwaterDeteriorating quality ofthe Indus water supply
Salinity: some 12 milliontons of salt added to theIndus basin each year
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Pakistan.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Problems
Pollution of surface andgroundwater
Rising water levels, leadingto the danger of floods
Neglect of maintenance
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Pakistan.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Problems
Water wasted throughseepages and lack ofstorage/utilizationinfrastructure
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Pakistan.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Disputes
Punjab vs Sindh beforepartition
1945, British imposedsolution
Remained in force till 1970
Then, disputes arose again
1www.gmat.com.pk
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Pakistan. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Disputes
Numerous commissionsfailed
Indus WaterApportionment Accord,1991
Waters fixed for eachprovince
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Pakistan.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
We’ve lookedat the issues.
Now, let’s lookat somesolutions.
1http://www.conflicts.indiawaterportal.org/?q=node/31
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Different solutions. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Cutting DemandSlide
Leakage reduction
Metering supplies
Recycling
Water-saving technology
Media campaigns
Efficient irrigation
Changing diets and lifestyles
Containing population growth
1www.kpbs.org
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Efficient irrigation. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Increasing SuppliesSlide
New sources of surface andground water
Exploiting cryosphere (frozenpart of Earth)
Rainwater harvesting
Harvesting fog and dew
Water beyond Earth
Desalination
1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html
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Desalination plant in Spain. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
ManagementViewpoints
Maintain physical waterresources
Maintain basin ecosystems
Sustain a balance betweensocial and physicalcomponents
1www.nonprofitlawblog.com
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Good Governance. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
LawViewpoints
Absolute territorial sovereignty
Absolute territorial integrity
Limited territorial sovereignty(equitable utilization), HelsinkiRules
Berlin Rules include theenvironment
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Good Governance.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
FinanceResponsibility
World Bank focusing onprojects with soundenvironmental and socialfoundations
Refused to fund Indiansponsored hydropowerscheme in Nepal in the1990s
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Good Governance.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
AidPros and Cons
UN encourages developednations to contribute 0.7%of GDP to poor nations
In reality, 0.3 to 0.4%
Economists divided onefficacy
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Good Governance.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
AidPros and Cons
$1 trillion aid to Africa inlast 60 years
People worse off
Vicious cycle ofdependency, corruption,distortion in the markets
Some argue that necessarynow, even if inefficient
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Good Governance.
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Monitoring and Data ManagementEquipment
Monitoring andcommunication heart ofmodern watermanagement
Rain and river gauges
Weather radar
Meterological satellites
1www.thenational.ae
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Cutting water use in UAE farm. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Monitoring and Data ManagementSoftware Tools
One of the great advancesof last 50 years
Establishment ofinternational databases
1www.meteoshop.cz
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Visualizing weather data. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Prediction and Risk AssessmentOverview
Real-time forecasting
Improving risk assessment
1www2.ucar.edu
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Prediction. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
ProtectionConservation, Preservation and Restoration
Legislation
Cleaning up the delta
Cleaning up groundwater
Treating unsafe water
Restoring the aquaticenvironment
Desalination1
www.bauder.co.uk
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Protection banner. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Controlling the WeatherTechnological Innovation
Making rain
Making snow
Suppressing hail
Making clouds
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud seeding
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Cloud seeding equipment on Cessna210. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Treaties and AgreementsIndus Waters Treaty 1960
Signing of Indus Waters Treaty. Signatories were Field Marshal AyubKhan, President of Pakistan and Shri Jawaharlal Nehru, Prime Minister
of India on 19 September 1960 in Karachi. 1
1http://pakistanpaedia.com/mega/megaprojects.html
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Treaties and AgreementsIndus Waters Treaty 1960
22 page document
12 articles
8 annexuresEastern rivers
Sutlej, Beas, Ravi
Western RiversIndus, Jhelum, Chenab
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political
Treaties and AgreementsIndia Bangladesh, 1996
30-year Gangeswater-sharing arrangement
India recognizedBangladesh’s rights as alower-level riparian
1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farakka Barrage
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Farakka Barrage across GangesRiver in West Bengal close to
Bangladesh. 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
We’ve lookedat some issuesand solutions.
Now, let’sanalyze.
1http://www.funnyandjokes.com/sharks-looking-foward-to-global-warming.html
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Nice analysis! 1
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
A variety of socioeconomic, governance andenvironmental issues determine the dynamics ofwater and fluctuations in its demand and supply
However, in general, demand for freshwater isincreasing and its supply is decreasing
Individuals and nations strive to secure their waterresources, leading to conflict on small and largescales
Several solutions are possible
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
1 Pakistan needs to take measures to store its riverwaters, such as through building dams
2 Pakistan needs to invest in technological innovationto increase freshwater supplies from groundwater,seawater and rainwater and monitoring quantities
3 Pakistan needs to engage its provinces as well as itsneighbors in negotiations to fairly solve outstandingwater sharing issues
4 Pakistan needs to take care of its environment
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
The supply of water is constant on our planet. Butfor freshwater, there is evidence of decreasing aswell as increasing demand, as well as evidence fordecreasing and increasing supplies. However, ingeneral, demand is increasing and supply isdecreasing. Coupled with this is the variabilityintroduced by climate change. The desire to controlwater has intensified amid this uncertainty and ismanifested in water related conflicts around theglobe. Pakistan must make efforts to secure itsfreshwater supplies from rivers, groundwater,sea-water and rain water. To ensure sustainability inthese supplies, Pakistan must look after itsenvironment.
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
Bibliography IBooks
Briscoe, John and Usman Qamar (2006). Pakistan’s Water Economy:Running Dry. Oxford University Press Karachi.
Gleick, Peter H et al. (2014). The World’s Water : The Biennial Reporton Freshwater Resources. Vol. 8. Island Press.
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
Bibliography IWebsites
Agency, Central Intelligence (2014a). The World Fact Book, India. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/in.html.
– (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-
factbook/geos/pk.html.
Ahmad, Usman. The Inventory of Conflict & Environment (ICE),American University, Washington DC. url:http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm.
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
Bibliography IIWebsites
Blue, Circle of (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International WaterStrategy to Avert Conflict, Foster Cooperation. url:http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-
think-tank-calls-for-water-bureau-in-washington/.
Center, World Resources SIM (2010). Asian River Basins. url:http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins.
Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC), PakistanMeteorological Department. Pakistan Mean Rainfall, 1971-2000. url:http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf.
GreenFacts (2005). Water Availability Information for Pakistan. url:http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-
resources/figtableboxes/aquastat133.htm.
Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
Bibliography IIIWebsites
GRID-Arendal. Main Worlds River Basins. url: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3226.aspx.
Institute, Pacific. Water Conflict Chronology Map. url:http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/.
National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/
encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations(2010). Total Renewable Water Resources per Capita by Country.url: http://chartsbin.com/view/1470.
US Geological Survey, Water Science School. Earth’s Water:Groundwater. url: http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html.
Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
Bibliography IVWebsites
US Geological Survey, Water Science School. How Do HydrologistsLocate Groundwater? url:http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwhowtofind.html.
Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2002).Tarbela Dam. url: http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/pgeneration-dam-tarbela.html.
– (2010). Mangla Dam. url:http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html.
World Bank, United States Census Bureau. url:http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html.
Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
Sponsor DS for guidance
Members for encouragement and help
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Questions
The pond is now open, so please float yourquestions. 1
1http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/07/28/3-questions-you-need-ask-about-business-risk-assessment
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Terminology
DefinitionsHydrology
Hydrology has evolved as a science in response tothe need to understand the complex water system ofthe earth and help solve water problems1
1http://water.usgs.gov/edu/hydrology.html
Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Terminology
DefinitionsHydraulic civilization
According to the theories of the German-Americanhistorian Karl A. Wittfogel, any culture having anagricultural system that is dependent uponlarge-scale government-managed waterwork -productive (for irrigation) and protective (for floodcontrol). Wittfogel advanced the term in his bookOriental Despotism (1957). He believed that suchcivilizations - although neither all in the Orient norcharacteristic of all Oriental societies - were quitedifferent from those of the West.1
1http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/278180/hydraulic-civilization
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IntroductionIssues
SolutionsWrap-up
Terminology
ProcessHow Do Hydrologists Locate Groundwater?1
Rocks are the most valuable key of all
Existing wells provide clues
Conditions for large quantities of shallow groundwater are morefavorable under valleys than under hills
In some regions–in parts of the arid Southwest, for example–thepresence of ”water-loving” plants, such as cottonwoods orwillows, indicates groundwater at shallow to moderate depth
Areas where water is at the surface as springs, seeps, swamps,or lakes reflect the presence of groundwater, although notnecessarily in large quantities or of usable quality.
1US Geological Survey, Water Science School. How Do Hydrologists Locate Groundwater? url:
http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwhowtofind.html
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Terminology
DefinitionsDelta
A river delta is a landform that forms at the mouthof a river, where the river flows into an ocean, sea,estuary, lake, or reservoir.
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Terminology
DefinitionsUnconfined Aquifer
An unconfinedaquifer is coveredby permeable rockand can receivewater from thesurface
1National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:
http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1
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Figure : Unconfined Aquifer. 1
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Terminology
DefinitionsConfined Aquifer
A confined aquiferlies between twolayers of lesspermeable rocksand is filled withwater
1National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:
http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1
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Figure : Confined Aquifer. 1
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Terminology
DefinitionsArtesian Well
An artesian well isa type of confinedaquifer that flowsupward to theEarth’s surfacewithout the needfor pumping
1National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:
http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1
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Figure : Artesian Well. 1
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PakistanHindu Kush Himalayan Region
Source of ten large Asianriver systems (the AmuDarya, Indus, Tarim,Ganges,Brahmaputra,Irrawaddy, Salween,Mekong, Yangtze, andYellow 1
1International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (2012). A Strategy and Results
Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 3
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PakistanHindu Kush Himalayan Region
Provides water, ecosystemservices, and the basis forlivelihoods to a populationof more than 210 millionpeople
The basins of these riverssupply water to more than1.3 billion people 1
Figure : Area comparison ofPakistan with eastern UnitedStates. 1
1International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (2012). A Strategy and Results
Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 3Water - Cause of Future Conflict?
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article I: Definitions
River
Tributary
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article II: Provisions Regarding Eastern Rivers
”All the rivers of the Eastern Rivers shall beavailable for the unrestricted use of India”
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article III: Provisions Regarding Western Rivers
”Pakistan shall receive for unrestricted use all thosewaters of the Western Rivers which India is underobligation to let flow under the provisions ofparagraph (2) [Indus, Jhelum, Chenab].”
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article IV: Provisions Regarding Eastern and Western Rivers
”Pakistan shall use its best endeavours to constructand bring into operation, with due regard toexpedition and economy, that part of a system ofworks which will accomplish the replacement, fromthe Western Rivers and other sources, of watersupplies for irrigation canals in Pakistan which, on15th August 1947, were dependent on water suppliesfrom the Eastern Rivers.”
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article V: Financial Provisions
Regarding Article IV, ”...India agrees to make a fixedcontribution of Pounds Sterling 62.06 milliontowards the cost of these works...”
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article VI: Exchange of Data
”The following data with respect to the flow in, andutilisation of the waters of, the Rivers shall beexchanged regularly between the Parties:- ...”
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article VII: Future Co-operation
”... they declare their intention to cooperate ...”
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article VIII: Permanent Indus Commission
”India and Pakistan shall each create a post ofCommissioner for Indus Waters, and shall appoint tothis post, as often as a vacancy occurs, a personwho should ordinarily be a high-ranking engineercompetent in the field of hydrology and water use.”
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article IX: Settlement of Differences and Disputes
”... breach .... shall first be examined by theCommission, which will endeavor to resolve thequestion by agreement.”
If not successful, a neutral expert
Next, governments
Next, a court of arbitration
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article X: Emergency Provision
If Pakistan cannot construct works by 31st March1973, works referred to in Article IV (1), Pakistanwill tell the Bank and the Bank will notify each party.After this, consultations to reach mutual agreement.
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article XI: General Provisions
This Treaty does not mean that any party haswaived off all rights outside this Treaty
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article XII: Final Provisions
Takes effect 1st April, 1960
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article XII: Final Provisions
One of the main problems to emerge as a result ofthe 1960 Treaty was the geographic mismatchbetween rivers flowing in the west and irrigatedlands in the east. Tarbela Dam, the worlds largestearth-filled dam, and several link canals were built toensure supply of water to these lands.
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Pakistan vs PakistanInter-provincial Disputes
Inter-provincial disputes, particularly between Punjab andSindh, considerably pre-date the creation of PakistanPre-Partition attempts by Punjab to construct irrigationinfrastructure on the Indus were opposed by SindhIn 1945 the British imposed a solution on the two provinces,which gave priority to Sindhs right to receive water from theIndusNo further sharing arrangement was made upon Partition, sothe British formula remained in force and was followed until1970Thereafter the federal government began allocating water onan ad hoc basis: its decisions favoured Punjab
Shahid Ahmad (2013). Water Cooperation for Inter-provincial Trust Building and Sharing Benefits of Apportioned
Water, Policy Issues and Options. Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development. Ed. by
International Union for Conservation of Nature. url: http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/ulr___water_
cooperation_for_inter_provincial_trust_building_and_sharing_benefits_of_a.pdf
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Pakistan vs PakistanInter-provincial Disputes
Disputes between the provinces continued because of theperceived pro-Punjab bias in allocations, and because of theimpact of water infrastructure construction on the smallerprovinces
Numerous commissions were formed to resolve these issues butfailed to reach agreement until 1991
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
BreakthroughInter-provincial Agreement
In 1991 the four Chief Ministers agreed the Indus WaterApportionment Accord
This allowed for a minimum flow of water into the sea, andshared the remainder between the four provinces
In this way, the Accord allowed for the erratic flow of water inthe Indus, and ensured that all provinces gained from surplusesor lost from shortages in supply
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
BreakthroughInter-provincial Agreement
The distribution of water agreed was as follows:Punjab: 55.94 MAFSindh: 48.76 MAFNWFP: 5.78 MAF (+ 3.00 MAF for ungauged canals)Balochistan: 3.87 MAF
Balance river supplies (including flood waters and futurestorage) were to be distributed as follows:
Punjab: 37%Sindh: 37%NWFP: 14%Balochistan: 12%Total: 114.35 MAF (+ 3.00 MAF)Total: 100%
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Proposed RevisionProblems Again
In May 1994 the Punjab government again proposed a revisionof the ten-daily figures to base these on historical use
An Inter-10Ministerial Committee allegedly reached consensuson this arrangement, but the decision was challenged in thecourts which upheld the previous 1991 Accord arrangement
In practice, however, the smaller provinces accuse Punjab ofusing its upstream position and control of water infrastructureto implement sharing on the basis of historic use.
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Implementation IssuesProblems Again
The formula for water distribution was based on ten-dayaverage use, system-wise and seasonally adjusted (Kharif andRabi) figures provided by the provinces
The Council of Common Interests (CCI) met in September1991, six months after the Accord was signed, to agree theten-daily use figures
Punjab had wanted the figures to be based on historic usebetween 1977-82, the period during which ad hoc allocationsby the federal government had favoured the province
This proposal was opposed by the smaller provinces, andrejected by the CCI
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Implementation IssuesProblems Again
The formula for water distribution was based on ten-dayaverage use, system-wise and seasonally adjusted (Kharif andRabi) figures provided by the provinces
In May 1994, the Punjab Government again proposed arevision of the ten-daily figures to base these on historical use
The smaller provinces accuse Punjab of using its upstreamposition and control of water infrastructure to implementsharing on the basis of historic use
Sindh in particular contends that it has received less waterthan its entitlement under the 1991 Accord
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Implementation IssuesProblems Again
It says that the reduced flow is insufficient to meet minimumrequirements for inflow to the sea; seawater now comes up to100 km inland
The result of this is increased salination of lower Sindhagricultural lands, with subsequent adverse effects onecosystems, soil quality and deterioration in the quality andquantity of water supply to Karachi (both due to increasedsalinity and increased concentrations of pollutants) causingdiseases and health problems for vast populations
Another problem is the shrinking of the Indus basin mangroveforest, which is dependent on fresh water supplies
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Implementation IssuesProblems Again
Once the sixth largest in the world, this has reduced in size by38% between 1977 and 1990
The livelihood of thousands of people who depend on themangrove forests is threatened
In short, despite the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord, thereare significant disputes between the provinces over the currentdistribution of water
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Relationship to Kalabagh DamPunjab vs Sindh
The Water Accord of 1991 was entered into specifically fordeveloping consensus on Kalabagh dam
Why else would Punjab have agreed to a reduction in its ownshare in order to increase Sindhs share?
Why else would Punjab have agreed to Wapda being replacedwith IRSA?
Why else would Punjab have agreed to engineers from theSindh irrigation department being posted on major head worksof Punjab?
All these concessions become meaningless if Punjab was not toget the benefit of Kalabagh dam in return
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Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991
Necessity of damsSource of confusion
On signing the Accord all the provinces had agreed to thenecessity of more dams on all the rivers including on the Indusbut the Sindh delegation had requested that Kalabagh damnot be mentioned by name in the final draft
Therein lies all the confusion about the very purpose of theWater Accord.
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