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Anita MilmanWednesday 13 July 2011Conflict and Transboundary Water Issues
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Transboundary WatersConflict and Cooperation
Anita Milman, University of East Anglia
July 13, 2011
Environmental Conflicts Summer School1
OVERVIEW
• Shared Water Resources
• Water Wars: Conflict & Cooperation
• Empirical Analysis: Analyzing History
• Theory: International Relations
• Law, Negotiations & Agreements
• Beyond ‗the State‘
• Shared Water in a Changing World
2
http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/
Water is a shared resource
263 International
River Basins
3
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Groundwater flows unseen across
political boundaries
http://www.whymap.org4
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/html/gm16.html
Water is scarce,
poorly distributed in time & space
5
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Withdrawals are likely to increase
Change in withdrawals between 1995 & 2050 under the B2
climate scenario & accounting for population growth, income,
electricity production and water efficiency effects
Alcamo et al. 2007
6
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Future wars over water (?)―If the wars of the twentieth century were fought over oil,
the wars of this century will be fought over water.‖ – World Bank
―Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future‖ – The United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan
―Water shortages will grow even more serious; the stuff of future wars. . . . With 3.5 billion people affected by water shortages by 2050, conditions are ripe for a century of water conflicts.‖ – The Economist
(Quotes collected in Dinar et al. 2008)7
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Issues that cause tension
• Quantity
– Navigation, flow, consumptive use, flooding
• Timing
• Quality
– Salts, nutrients, turbidity, toxics
• Infrastructure
– Dams, electricity generation, treatment plants
8
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Is water a cause or a symptom?
• A cause of conflict and tensions
• Control as military or political goal
– defining wealth or power
• Used as a tool in conflict
– Used to destroy or harm the enemy
• A target of conflict
– Marks/defines the boundary
9
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
A Conflict - Cooperation Continuum
the Water Event Intensity Scale
Yoffe et al. (2003) 10
Transboundary Water
Interaction NexuS Matrix
Zeitoun, M. and N. Mirumachi (2008)
11
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Cooperation is more frequent
than conflict over water Between 1918 and 1994, more than 200 treaties
were signed; yet only 37 reported cases of inter-
state violence (mostly related to Israel).
39%
37%
6%
4%
4%
9% 1%
Hydroelectric Power
Water Consumption
Industrial Use
Navigation
Pollution
Flood Control
Fishing
145 treaties analyzed
Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database
12
Cooperation is not always
without conflict
(Hydro) hegemony: Dominance of one
social group over another, such that the
ruling group—referred to as a hegemon—
acquires some degree of consent from the
subordinate, without necessarily using force
13
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Conflict and Cooperation :
Identifying Risk Factors via
Empirical Analysis
Pics: Wolf et al 2003
14
Factors that increase CONFLICT
• Water and border disputes coincide
• Disruptions of anthropogenic origin
• Scarcity & variability in availability
• Rate of change in the basin exceeds
adaptive capacity
15
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Factors that increase COOPERATION
• Scarcity & variability in availability
• Linkages
• Collective action problem
16
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Factors posited as important,
relation to conflict undetermined
– Population density
– Overall GDP
– Government type (democracy)
– Overall relations between countries
17
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpirical Analysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Theoretical Perspectives
18
International relations theories
Realism
• States are in
competition
• Goal is military
security and survival
• Power is key
• Relative gains
Sovereignty of states
Anarchical international structure
19
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
International relations theories
Liberalism
• Underlying harmony
in interests
• Mutual gain from
cooperating
• Institutions are key
• Absolute gains
Sovereignty of states
Anarchical international structure
20
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Can economics promote cooperation?
• Optimum basin development
– Moving from RIGHTS to NEEDS…to INTERESTS
• ‗Benefit Sharing‘ Assumes can transform from ‗win-lose‘ to ‗win-win‘
– Economies of scale
– Existing inefficiencies
– Heterogeneities among countries create possibilities for trade-offs
21
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
―Sharing‖ the gains
• Compensation or side payments
– Rare in exchange for water
– More frequent for infrastructure
• How to allocate gains?
– May reflect an implicit agreement about
property rights
– May also reflect power dynamics
22
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Cooperation through issue linkage
• Can reduce need for side payments
• Provides enforcement mechanisms
• Most useful if asymmetry between the
countries on the linked issues
• May be difficult to renegotiate terms
23
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Beyond Utility Max & Power Positioning
• Sovereignty
• Security
– National existence, self-sufficiency
• Image
• ‗Ethos‘ of water
– Use, interbasin transfers,
– Identity, spiritual values, culture, etc
– Importance of water in political rhetoric
24
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
LAW, NEGOTIATIONS & TREATIES
25
International water law
• Customary law
• Bi- or multi-lateral treaties
• General principles and conventions– 1911 Madrid Declaration
– 1966 Helsinki Rules
– 1991 International Law Commission (draft)
– 1997 UN Convention (not ratified)
26
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Principles for allocation
• Absolute sovereignty
• Absolute territorial integrity
• Optimum development of the basin
• Community of property (Equitable and reasonable use)
• No appreciable harm
27
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Reasonable and Equitable UseArticle 10 – 1997 UN Convention
1. Geographic, hydrographic, hydrologic,
climatic, ecological
2. Social and economic needs
3. Effects of the use on another state
4. Existing and potential uses
5. Conservation, protection, development
and economy
6. Availability of alternatives28
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Types of TB River Agreements
• Flow allocation or restrictions
• Water quality improvements or regulations
• Boundary demarcation
• Infrastructure development & use
• Process management
– Data sharing
– Technical and financial cooperation
– Informing and prior consent
– Joint management 29
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Incentives to Reach an Agreement
• Risk of breakdown
– Default value/ reservation utility
– Impatience or temporal issues
– Credible threats
• Reliable expectations
• Third-party involvement
30
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Interpretation intractibility
• Analytic uncertainty: lack of knowledge of
the expected outcomes
– What will be the result
• Framing ambiguity: different perspectives
on a problem and its solution
– Scarcity/wastefulness? Dykes/floodplains?
• Incommensurability: irreconcilable values
and unacceptable tradeoffs
– Ecosystems vs livelihoods31
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
• Complexity– Technical
– In definition of roles and responsibilities
• Wider (non-water) considerations– Conversely, water may help with those
disagreements
• Too many players to form ‗grand‘-coalition
Barriers to Reaching an Agreement
32
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Two-levels Impact Negotiations
• Bureaucratic policy processes
– internal power relations within the bureaucracy
– Competing domestic interest groups
• Executive policy process
– degree of involvement of the chief executive in water matters
• Residual policy processes
– pork barrel, coalition policies that use water as a political weapon
(LeMarquand 1990)33
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Elements of successful treaties
• Self-enforcing or binding agreements
– Incentives to follow through on commitment
• Flexiblity
– adapt to changing values, technologies and
market conditions
34
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Uncertainty in agreementsTypes of uncertainty:
– Exogenous – related to the basin
– Endogenous – related to the agreement
Mechanisms to address uncertainty:– Ambiguity in design
– Variable flow allocation, escape clauses
– Monitoring
– Provisions for amendments
– Provisions for conflict resolution
Drieschova, et al. 2011
35
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Common treaty failings
• Limited mandates
• Constrained authority
• Weak institutional capacity
• Insufficient financing
• Lack of enforcement
• Insufficient public participation
• Weighted towards technocratic solutions
36
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Beyond ‗State‘ & Watercourse
Need for a multi-scalar analysis
• Sub- national actors
• Supra- national level actors
Eco-systems boundaries, global commons?
37
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Global Change
• Environmental
– E.g., climate, groundwater, emerging contaminants
• Social
– Urbanization, migration
• Political
– Jasmine revolution, increasing nationalism in the EU
• Economic
– Role of China, new aid networks
– Sovereign wealth funds, global corporations
• Increasing transnational networks 38
Shared Water
Water WarsEmpiricalAnalysis
IR TheoryLaw &
AgreementsBeyond the
StateChanging
World
Contact: [email protected]
