Mapping the evolution of renewable resources and their relation with EROI and energy policies

P Díaz13, B Miao1 and J Masó2P Díaz13, B Miao1 and J Masó2

1 Department of Asian and International Studies, City University of Hong

2 CREAF, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona3 This research was supported by City University of Hong Kong research grant

(52739560).

35 International Symposium on Remote

Sensing of the Environment,

Beijing, 26 April 2013

� Evolution of renewable production� General overview.

� Evolution of renewables last 6 years

� Focus on China

� Renewable energy policies in China� Renewable energy policies in China� Weaknesses

� Optimal locations for the establishment of installations for renewables.

� Energy Return on Investment� EROI.

� Conclusions

� The global share of renewable energy could increase from the current 17% to between 30% and 75%, and even 90% by 2050.

� Hydropower, biofuels and renewables production increased in 2011.

� Disparities in new renewables energy production data:� Disparities in new renewables energy production data:

� BP (2012) says 2.1%

� REN21 (2012) says 4.9%� Nevertheless, there is a general consensus on the rapid

grow they are experiencing worldwide.� New renewables power generation increased at an above

average rate (17.7%):

� High increase in wind (25.8%),

� High increase in solar power energy (86.3%).

ISRSE35, Beijing, 2013

Based on gross generation from renewable sources including wind, geothermal, solar, biomass and waste, and not accounting for cross border electricity supply.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June, 2012

Based on gross generation from renewable sources including wind, geothermal, solar, biomass and waste, and not accounting for cross border electricity supply.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June, 2012

3.6

6.9

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17.7

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China's new renewables consumption

� China has multiplied by 12 the consumption of new renewables

(9.1% of the global total)

� In 2010 accounted for 44% of the global market of wind source.

� In 2011 it led the production of four renewable energy sources:

� Biomass, solar thermal systems, wind and geothermal

1.4 1.83.6

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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� 90’s China’s energy consumption growth was four times greater

than predicted ( 3-4% Chinese government and IEA).

� China did not meet its targets on non-fossil energy

consumption in the 11th Five-year Plan (2006-2010).

� China set new targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015): � China set new targets in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015):

11.4% of the total primary energy consumption.

� Renewables installed capacity will increase to 30%

� Great increase in renewable energy consumption in 2011 with respect to

2010: 48.4%.

� Governance: It has produced 28 environmental laws since 1979.

� Electricity Law (1995),

� Energy Conservation Law (1997),

� Air Pollution Prevention Law (2000).


� In 2005 the Law of Renewable Energy was passed. � In 2009, a total of five sets of supporting laws were

enacted: � Guidance and Content for the Development of Renewable

Energy Industry, Energy Industry,

� Temporary Method for Managing the Special Capital of Renewable Energy Development,

� Temporary Management for the Price and Cost Sharing in Renewable Energy Power Generation,

� Administrative Regulations on Renewable Energy Power Generation,

� Mid- and Long-Term Development Programming for Renewable Energy.


� Central governance strategies: Five-Year Plans.

� The 6th Five-Year Plan (1985) is the first that specified a

reduction in energy consumption.

� The 10th Five-Year Plan is the first plan directly dedicated

to new and renewable energy. to new and renewable energy.

� It specifies an annual utilization of new and renewable

energy of 13 million tce (excluding small hydro and

biomass).


� The 11th Five-Year Development Plan for New Energy and

Renewable Energy (2006-2010).

� Annual utilization of renewable energy: 300 million tce,

� The most ambitious energy consumption reductions: 20%

of energy per unit of GDP,of energy per unit of GDP,

� The 12th Five-Year Plan calls for more savings on energy

efficiency and energy intensity reduction, but with no

specific target.

� Reduction of 16% of energy per unit of GDP, due to the

difficulties on meeting the former target.


� Too many bodies are involved in renewables management.

� There is a lack of coordination and consistency amongst

regulations.

� Unequal spatial distribution of renewable investment.

� E.g. wind farms are concentrated in the north, producing 73.2%, but � E.g. wind farms are concentrated in the north, producing 73.2%, but

between 38-57.2% is lost in transmission

� Disparities between local and central government priorities.

� Although China has ranked top in terms of investment on

renewable energy; a very small amount is spent on technical

research and development.

� Investment in renewable energy accounted for only

0.045% of the total GDP, while EU member countries’

investment accounted for 2%.


� The efficiency of renewables depends on the location and

the infrastructure.

� Challenge: Is to define the areas where it is technically and

economically feasible to develop renewable energy

installations. installations.

� The locations where it is easy to install renewable farms

become fewer over time.

� The optimal distribution should consider:

� The various kinds of technology (different efficiency) for

renewable sources,

� The costs of the initial installation,

� The costs of energy interconnection.


Natural constraints

� Characteristics of the topography:

� Lands with slopes>20% are excluded.

� Natural variables (wind, sun, etc.).

� Conflict with other activities such as agriculture or Natural � Conflict with other activities such as agriculture or Natural

Parks.

Infrastructural constraints

� Lack of infrastructure (roads for accessing of cranes).

� Presence of buildings and the ownership of land

(private/public).

� Lack of networks for transmission of the energy produced.


� Energy return on investment (EROI) compares the energy

returned for a certain source and the energy used to get it

(explore, find, develop, produce, extract, transform, harvest,

grow, process, etc.).

� It shows a general decrease of efficiency for fossil fuels and � It shows a general decrease of efficiency for fossil fuels and

gas.

� Results on the real energy return for renewables are

sometimes contradictory.

� Due to the falling number of appropriate sites, an spatialized

EROI is becoming increasingly important for renewables.


•EFF= non-renewable PES in the

ground (e.g.crude oil)

•EFeed= direct non-renewable

energy input for electricity

production (feedstock)

EROI=

EOUT/(EED+EPP)

� There is a lack of agreement in literature. We propose to use Raugei’s

(2012) formula.

production (feedstock)

•EED= energy for the supply chain

(extraction and delivery) of the feed

stock, (renewable+non-renewable)

•EPP= energy for the construction

and end-of-life (EoL) of the power

plant, (renewable+non-renew-able)

•ER= direct renewable Primary

Energy input for electricity

production (usually excluded from

the EROI calculations)

•EOUT= net electricity (EC) output

REN=

EFEED &EED=

0

� Variables proposed to be included in the calculation of

the EROI

Distances and transport

costs

Topography and connexions Environmental variables

Between production and Accessibility. Solar radiation. Between production and

consumption:

transportation of energy

from farms to cities.

Energy cost of

infrastructure maintenance

and development.

Accessibility.

Easiness of construction of

new farms (slope

ownership).

System of connection to

existing grids.

Solar radiation.

Wind speed.

Ocean speed.

Environmental impact.

Greenhouse emissions.

� It can be presented as maps showing the most productive

zones and the optimal position in terms of:

� Energy production and associated costs

� It calculates the sites of maximum energy return at minimum

cost and the least impact of production.cost and the least impact of production.

� Spatialized EROI analysis can include any indirect costs that

energy sources might produce:

� Visual impacts, food market impacts and land price.

� Spatialized EROI can be a useful tool for decision makers in

Chinas future of renewables

� It would facilitate access to the data �� increase knowledge and social acceptance of renewable installation

projects.


� An overall review has been conducted and weaknesses have

been identified in:

� Renewable energy development

� Policy and regulations on renewables.

� Investment in renewable energy is experiencing a strong � Investment in renewable energy is experiencing a strong

increase.

� However, further efforts will be needed to provide more

efficiency in the policies and planning of renewables in China.

� Determining the efficient areas that maximize the energy

returned on investment will be crucial in renewables.

� The authors propose to introduce spatial variables into the

calculation of EROI to facilitate the efficient location of

renewable energy.


Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention

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