Livestockproduc/oninSub-SaharanAfrica:Prospectsforexploi/ngresilientlivestockgenotypesinthelightofclimatechange

Okeyo,A.Mwai&J.M.K.Ojango

Interna/onalLivestockResearchIns/tute,Nairobi,Kenya

Interna/onalSeminar11thMarch2016-DepartmentofAnimalBreedingandGene/cs,SLU,Uppsala,SwedenLivestockResourcesforfoodsecurityinthelightofclimatechange

Sub-SaharanAfrica-Somefacts

Africa

ButAfricaisnotsmall?

Key agro-ecological zones insub-SaharanAfrica.

SourcehTp://harvestchoice.org

Africanlivestock:•  310millioncaTle,360&340

milliongoats&sheep

•  34millionpigs,23millioncamelsand1.9billionchicken

•  150indigenousbreeds

•  Keptby309millionpeopleSource:FAO,2015

Agro-EcologicalZone(AEZ)1

landarea(km2)

cul7vatedland(%)

Popula7on(millions)

belowpovertyline(%)

Humid 3,177,532 8.0 127.2 48.5

Sub-humid 5,138,577 10.3 238.8 57.3

Semi-arid 5,466,015 16.2 197.0 52.5

Arid 6,096,894 2.0 43.8 23.3

Highland 2,758,556 18.1 217.9 44.0

Sub-tropical2 1,489,561 8.1 30.3 30.5

Total 24,127,135 10.5 855.0 48.8

SourcehTp://harvestchoice.org

Coverageanddemographiccharacteris/csofsixmajoragro-ecologicalzonesinSub-SaharanAfrica

•  AgricultureholdskeyforAfrica’seconomicgrowth•  Themainchallengesislowproduc/vity:

•  Averageannualpopula/ongrowthrateis2.5%•  Averagecerealyieldsare1.4tons/hacomparedto8.6tons/hainN.America

•  Highdiseaseincidences

•  Currently,one-thirdofallcaloriesconsumedinAfricaareimportedatacostofUS$35billion/yr

SomefactsaboutSub-SaharanAfrica

Source:Bouetetal,2014

GapsvsTargetsTanzania Nigeria Ethiopia

BaselineMilk(kg/cow/day)

2.0 0.75 1.7

Eggs/hen/yr

35 45 72

Mortality(%) 20 20 25

TargetsMilk(kg/cow/day)

4.0 1.5 3.2

Eggs/hen/yr

70 90 72

Mortality(%)

17 17 21

AnnualIFCNfeedcostsbetween2006and2012

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

FeedCost,

$/ton 143 193 267 224 229 318 351

Hugeyieldgaps-caseofKenyadairycaTle

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Kg

of

milk p

er

day

Months in Milk

Figure 1: Realized lactation curves of improved (crossbred or higher) dairy cows achieved by different farmer types in Kenya

Commercial/Intensive dairy farmers –~6,500 kg/lactation --- ~2% of farmers

Best smallholder farmers - ~2,500 kg/lactation --- ~5% of farmers

Average smallholder farmers --- ~1,400 kg/lactation --- >90% of farmers

Thegapstobefilled

Nearly40billionliters/yrmilksupplydeficitinEastAfricanregion

Source:Ojangoetal.,2014

Causesoflowproduc/vity

•  Lackofcoherent&suppor/ve/rightpolicies(e.g.promo/ngthewrongbreeds)

•  Inadequatelevelsofmechaniza/on•  Lowcapacityforgenera/on,dissemina/onandadop/onofnewtechnologiesandinnova/ons

•  Poorinfrastructure•  Weakins/tu/onsandpoorgovernance•  Highlevelsofdiseasechallenge•  Climatechange

Uncertainty!ProbabilityofLGPdecliningby5%ormorebythe2050s(fromanensembleof4climatemodels)

Source:Ericksenetal2011

Current Key agro-ecological zones in sub-Saharan Africa .

SourcehTp://harvestchoice.org

ConsequencesofClimatechange•  Onthelivestockthemselves

–  (i.e.IfCCexceedtheadap/vecapacityoftheAnGR(i.e.impactsongene/cdiversity)

•  Catastrophicevents•  Diseaseepidemics•  Produc/vitylosses•  Physiologicalstress•  Wateravailability

•  By2050,areasofAfricasuitableforkeycrops(e.g.maizeandbeans)coulddeclineby20%to40%.

•  Substan/alreduc/onsinforageandincreasedheatstresscouldgreatlyreducelivestockproduc/vityoflivestock,thussignificantlyaffectlivelihoods&foodsecurityofmillionsofAfricans.

•  Ofthe23outoftheworld’s33fisheriesthatarelikelytobedamagedareinAfrica.

•  Plantpests(cropkillers)aremovingintoareaspreviouslytoocoldtosupportthematarateofabout2.7km/yr

FoodProduc/onwillbemoreChallenginginAfrica

•  20%ofgrazinganimals(caTle,sheep&goats),and50%ofpoultry,arelosttodiseaseeachyear,cos/ngpoorfarmersaboutUS$300billion

•  Amongthelivestockdiseasesthatmostaffectpoorcommuni/es,morethanhalfcouldbespreadfartherandfasterbyclimatechanges

•  Amongperennialcashcropssuchastea,produc/oncouldbereducedby20%&profitabilitygreatlyeroded

CCConsequencescont..

Drastic changes are occurring

Increasedfrequencyandextremityofweatherevents:(drought/floods),erosion,soildegradaIon

Theprospects

Quickposi7vechangesareachievable!•  Nigeria:sharpfocusonprivate-sectorledimprovedinputdeliveryhasledto21milliontonsincreaseproduc/onwithin3years

•  Rwanda:Byincreasingfarminputsupply,hascuttheshareofpopula/onthatishungryfrom55%to21%in10year(from2000to2010)

•  Ethiopia:throtheAgric.Transforma/onProgramhasreachedmorethan4.4millionfarmersbutthisprogressisbeingunderminedbyCC

•  Malawi:FromnetmaizeimportertonetmaizeexporterIlessthan3years

Smartuseoftechnologycanmakesignificantdifferences

o  DigitalplaYormsforon-farmperformancetracking

o  Decision-supportandFarmer-to-Farmerperformancebenchmarking

o  Smartuserecords&genomicstoolsforselec7onandbe\erAIservicedelivery

o  “Eventually,Africaneedstocreatebreedsthatarebestsuitedtolocal&emergingecologicalcondi@onsGenomeedi@ngbiotechnologies?

o  Targe7ngofappropriategenotypestotheop7mumagro-ecology

o  Useofyoungbull/buck/ramsfocusonproduc7on&adapta7on

o  Localfeed/fodderresourceuseefficiency

EconomicallyRelevantTraits•  MilkYield/density•  AdaptabilityIndices•  Reproduc/vePerformance•  Heattolerance•  Survivalrates•  Lacta/onpersistency•  Mas//sincidences

Genotypeadapta7ontolocalagro-ecology

Developmentofsynthe7cbreeds

Acceleratedon-farmgene7cgains

TheRedMaasai&DorpersheepinKenya

•  Appropriatelycharacterizepopula/ons&systems•  Designbreedingprogram•  Strengthencapacity&Implementimprovementprogram

Breedingforprolificgoats:Iden/fycarrierbucks)

TypeofKidding

Loca7on

Single Twin Triplet Quadruplet Sextuplet Total

WesternHighland 23 74 58 4 1 160

Forest 5 94 23 2 0 124

Total(%) 28(9.9)

168(59.1)

81(28.5)

6(2.1)

1(0.4) 284

High Prolificacy can be profitable and Green (can reduce environmentalimpactsofgoatproduc/on)Prolificacy is expressed only in does, but efficient breeding requires usebuckswithhighpoten/al.Thegenomicregionresponsiblehasbeeniden/fied

BA

Source:Agaba,M.,2015

Poolflocks&recordperformance

UsetherecordstoselectyoungramsforbreedingRuthlesslygetridof

unwantedmales

Community-basedbreedingprogramsCommunity-basedbreedingprograms-selectunderprevailingenvironments

BongasheepinBonga,Ethiopia

Newtoolsallowustolookinnewplacesforsourcesofvaria7on

Analysiscompara/vegenenetworkandsequencesanalysistoasknewques/onsaboutgenomes–eg“whatisdifferentaboutthis(groupof)speciescomparedtoallothermammals”

“tradi/onal”linkagemappingrequirescrosses–soini/aldiscoveryislimitedtovariantswithinaspeciesCow NDama KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSPLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK

Cow Boran KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTLCEREKSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Human KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCEREHSTVPWFVKQCIEAVEK

Pig KFITRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHTVCERENSTVPRFVKQCIEAVEK Chicken KFISRRPSLKTLQEKGLIKDQIFGSHLHLVCEHENSTVPQFVRQCIKAVER

Salmon KFISRRPSMKTLQEKGIIKDRVFGCHLLALCEREGTTVPKFVRQCVEAVEK

Source:Agaba,M.,2015

Bovins

Bovins et GlossinesGlossines

Cattle Tsetse Cattle and tsetse

Distribution of cattle and tsetse flies across Africa

Trypanosomosis is the largest disease constraint on cattle production in sub-Saharan Africa, costing 1.3 to 10 billion Euro per annum

Tsetse area (37%)

11 millions km2

60 millions cattle at constant risk of infection

Non-tsetse transmitted T. vivax is endemic in Latin America and Asia

Completeprotec7onfromTrypanosomesbybaboonApoL-Iintransientlytransgenicmice

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0

20

40

60

80

100

Vector (N=6)

apoL-I + Hpr (N=5)

apoL-I (N=5)

**

Days post infection

• P=<0.01• Vectorvs.treatment

ThomsonetalPNAS2009106:19509-19514

Timeforanewsearchforvaria/onunderlyingtropicaladapta/onandproduc/vity

Iden/fyandmakeuseofthegene/csunderlyingnaturalvaria/on.Systema/callysearchforthegenomicbasisofadapta/on.NewGenomeEdi/ngtoolschangethelandscape.

Indica/veunderlyinggene/cbasisforadap/veaTributesinAfricanIndigenouscaTlebreeds

•  Selec/vesweepformilkproduc/oninKenanacaTlehasbeeniden/fied

•  Selec/vesweepforheattolerancesomeAfricancaTlebreeds

Conclusions

•  ClimateChangeimpactsonlivestockproduc/oninSSAwillbesignificantandmustbeeffec/velymi/gated

•  NeedforbeTerpoliciesandgovernance•  Prospectsexistforproduc/vityimprovementsinlightofCC•  Smartapplica/onofIT,reproduc/ve&genomictechnologieshaveaplace.

•  FordairycaTle,developsynthe/cbreed&promotetheirwideimprovementanduse

•  Sheepandgoats:prolificacyunderintensivesystem•  Ins/tu/onal/organiza/on’sandindividualcapaci/esneededtostrengthenedtosustainablymi/gatetheCCimpacts

Thankyou