Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan

Africa

C. Sere and M. Herrero

The Role of Livestock for ACP countries: challenges and opportunities ahead

Brussels Development Briefings - 1st July, 2009 Brussels, Belgium

– Livestock systems occupy 45% or the global land area (Reid et al 2008)

– Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)

– Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)

– Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities (Freeman et al 2007)

– Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global cropping area receives manure applications – Herrero et al 2008a)

Livestock and livelihoods (1)

– Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)

– Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber– Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase

in consumption of livestock products in the developing World– .

Europe - 2000

10%

11%

5%

31%5%

1%

37%

Meat

Dairy

Fruit & Vegetables

Cereals

Roots & Tubers

Dryland crops

Others

Livestock and livelihoods (3)

SSA - 20003%

3%

4%

47%16%

3%

24%Meat

Dairy

Fruit & Vegetables

Cereals

Roots & Tubers

Dryland crops

Others

Herrero et al 2008a

At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock

ILRI 2009

Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2030)

Farming system

Population in 2000 (1000 of

people)

Population in 2030 (1000 of

people)

(Agro-)Pastoral 80,160 140,820

Mixed Extensive 258,680 484,750

Mixed Potentially Intensify 168,150 327,070

Other 109,180 190,310

Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa will nearly double to 2030!!

Herrero et al 2009

Consumption of livestock products in thedeveloping world is projected to increase even faster

IAASTD 2007-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

developing countries industrial countries

chan

ge 2

001

- 203

0 (%

)cereals, food

cereals, all uses

veg. oils, oilseeds andby-productsmeat

milk

Cereal yields

Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa

World Bank 2007

Cereals production in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000)

Cereals Production 2000

5%

68%

24%

3%

AgroPastoral

Mixed Extensive

Mixed Intensive

Other

Herrero et al 2009

Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints

Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countriesCatching up

Rates lower than those of population growth

Herrero et al 2009

…but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….

Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030

012345678

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030

0123456789

CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total

%

AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries

Increased consumptionIncreased incomes

…but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc)

Some industrialisation….

Herrero et al 2009

Herrero et al 2009

Dependence on green and blue water 200080% of agricultural production comes from rainfed areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007

Small holder/Dairy cattle

Hub/Local org.

Milk collection

Milk processing/marketing

Breeding servicesVaccinationsDeworming

Disease InvestigationVeterinary services

Breed selectionSuperior germplasm

Performance evaluation

Lab servicesInput supply

ParavetVeterinarian

SeedsFertilizers

Feed/MineralsMicro-financeCrop residues

Fodder production

Pasture development

Water conservation/ supply

Fodder producers /Traders

Plant breedersSoil scientists

Small Scale DairyExisting value chain Proposed value chain

ILRI

Wider Replication

National/ Regional PlayersPrivate Entrepreneurs

Training /Capacity building

Monitoring /Evaluation

Consumer

Hedge 2009

Mean CC impacts on yields

With CO2 fertilization Without CO2 fertilization% %

Calorie-based national mean change in crop productivity [%] 2050s compared to 1990s

n=15; 3SRES, 5GCM

n=15; 3SRES, 5GCM

PIK, Müller et al., preliminary results

Conclusions

• Mixed crop-livestock systems will continue to be the backbone of agriculture and livestock production in Sub Saharan Africa

• Domestic and regional markets – essential• Improved market access, competitiveness,

reduction of transactions costs necessary• Significant room for intensification, particularly in

areas of medium agricultural potential• More livestock due to climate change?