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Presentation at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.
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1
A PARTNER WITH
What do we know
about the costs of ocean acidification
to future Swedish society?
Dr Sarah CornellStockholm, October 2014
pH 8.12, 1989
pH 8.08,2009
Figure Doney 2010, data Dore et al 2009
Message 1:
We know very littleBut we know enough to inform sensible policy choices
Useful overviews: Royal Society, 2005. Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
www.royalsociety.org, document ID 13539.Doney et al., 2010. The growing human footprint on coastal and ocean biogeochemistry.
Science 328 1512-1516.
CO2
ccccccccccccccccc
Fossilfuelcombus onAgriculture
Deforesta on
Carbondioxide
Organicpollutantsandtoxicmetals
Nutrientelements
Climatechange
Coastaleutrophica onandhypoxia
Alteredbiologicalproduc on
Oceanacidifica on
LoweredO2
simple cause (anthropogenic CO2) complex consequences
Ocean acidification is part of a complex set of global human-caused physical and biological changes
ccccccccccccccccc
Fossilfuelcombus onAgriculture
Deforesta on
Carbondioxide
Organicpollutantsandtoxicmetals
Nutrientelements
Climatechange
Coastaleutrophica onandhypoxia
Alteredbiologicalproduc on
Oceanacidifica on
LoweredO2
simple cause (anthropogenic CO2) complex consequences
Ocean acidification is part of a complex set of global human-caused physical and biological changes
• Primary production
• Nutrient cycling
• Biodiversity
• Resilience (where organisms survive – but at a cost)
• Trophic webs
• Habitats
All aspects of ecosystems are affected by ocean acidification:
Ocean acidification is essentially irreversible
75
50
250
US
$T
rill
ion
Policycost+damages
by2100
Damagesby2200
Damagesby2200
Damagesby2100
Costsof
Ac onvsInac on
(Estimates from Kempfert 2005 and Watkiss et al 2005)
Stern 2006: 2% of global GDP to achieve climate stabilization at 500 ppm CO2eCosts of inaction are >5% (up to 20% or more) of world GDP
Nordhaus 2008: Net cost of delaying mitigation by 50 years is US$ 2.3 Trillion (2005 prices)
As CO2 rises and ocean pH drops, costs to society will rise
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Population __
World GDP Index __
CO2 emissions __
LPI biodiversity loss __
N and P use __
Also: Steffen et al. 2004, Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet under Pressure, Springer Verlag.
Data: US Bureau of the Census International Database, www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html; GDP from Earth Policy Institute, www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C53; and International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo); CO2 from Global Carbon Project; LPI www.panda.org/lpr; Global partnership for Nutrient Management, www.unep.org/gpnm.
Human pressures are growing worldwide…
Message 2:
We are driving global changes in a world where resilience is already depleted
… and we only have this world1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Population __
World GDP Index __
CO2 emissions __
LPI biodiversity loss __
N and P use __
Message 3:
Economic valuation tools reach their limits with ocean acidification
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Population __
World GDP Index __
CO2 emissions __
LPI biodiversity loss __
N and P use __
‘Marginal’ changes are not marginal in complex systems with a history
Cost(s) ≠ Price ≠ Value
Message 3:
Economic valuation tools reach their limits with ocean acidification
Preferences Direct Indirect
Revealed Market prices Replacement costsMitigation costs
Hedonic pricing(also travel cost)Averting behaviour
Stated Contingent valuation Choice experiments
‘Capital’: Hard vs soft constraints? Infinite or finite shadow values?
Monetary valuations:
US$ 100 billion from shellfisheries – Narita et al. 2011, ESRI WP391
US$ 9 billion for shoreline protection by reefs – Cooley & Doney 2009, ERL
US $ 21 billion for reef fisheries
• ‘Services that will be affected…’• Carbon storage versus possible yield benefits
Scoping studies:
Hilmi et al. 2013, Marine Biology
Armstrong et al. 2012, FRAM Centre & NIVA
Kite-Powell 2009, Journal of Marine Education
Monetary valuations:
US$ 100 billion from shellfisheries – Narita et al. 2011, ESRI WP391
US$ 9 billion for shoreline protection by reefs – Cooley & Doney 2009, ERL
US $ 21 billion for reef fisheries
• ‘Services that will be affected…’• Carbon storage versus possible yield benefits
How will these ‘values’ be used?
Scoping studies:
Hilmi et al. 2013, Marine Biology
Armstrong et al. 2012, FRAM Centre & NIVA
Kite-Powell 2009, Journal of Marine Education
Costs > Dollars
Herman Daly (2009) – the unit of value is the ‘dollar’s worth’, not the dollar
Ludwig von Mises (1949) – economic valuation is not ‘a category of all human action’, it operates ‘under the special conditions of the exchange market’
Sagoff 2000: diversity and deliberation are part of democratic decision-making
Spash & Vatn 2006:
apart from valuation, other approaches are available(motives/behaviour analysis, MCA, dialogue)
Cornell 2010, Valuing ecosystem benefits in a dynamic world. Climate Research.
Production – yes, seafood.
But also jobs, health, livelihoods…
What can we say about Sweden?
Sweden’s expected direct exposure:
• Eutrophication and anoxia in Baltic (already low calcite)
• Marine production sector:
- Fish/shellfish
- Bioresources
Northern high latitudes
‘Robust’ fish species
Havenhand 2012, Ambio
Environmental processes depend on the functioning of the whole environment
• Cost of impacts of ocean acidification will rise
• Urbanization, emerging economies’ development pathways = lock-in, so best-value trade and aid investment is now.
Message 4:
Delaying climate change mitigation (CO2 emissions cuts)
will cost Sweden more in the future than now
Knowledge needs
• Methods that make sense – complexity, economics within society within environment
• Effects of ocean pH changes – chemistry, physics, biology + everything else
• Local studies in global frameworks
• Policies and institutions that support precaution, provisionality, participation
