Shanghai eventJanuary 15, 2014

Dr. Daniel VermeerAssociate Professor of the PracticeExecutive Director, EDGE CenterDuke University

OverviewOverview

1. Water in Nature and Society

2. Water Supply and Demand

3. The Promise of Water Productivity

4. Overcoming Barriers

AgricultureAgriculture EnergyEnergy

Water is fundamentalWater is fundamental

EcosystemsEcosystems Public HealthPublic Health

Annual Renewable Water Supply Per Person - 1975Annual Renewable Water Supply Per Person - 1975

Water Availability(m3/capita/year)

ExtremeScarcity

Scarcity Stress Adequate SurplusAbundant

Annual Renewable Water Supply Per Person - 2000Annual Renewable Water Supply Per Person - 2000

Water Availability(m3/capita/year)

ExtremeScarcity

Scarcity Stress Adequate SurplusAbundant

Annual Renewable Water Supply Per Person - 2025Annual Renewable Water Supply Per Person - 2025

Water Availability(m3/capita/year)

ExtremeScarcity

Scarcity Stress Adequate SurplusAbundant

Local water availability – 2012 Local water availability – 2012

Water Availability(m3/capita/year)

ExtremeScarcity

Scarcity Stress Adequate SurplusAbundant

Water-Rich, Water-PoorWater-Rich, Water-Poor

• Uneven distribution of water on a global scale

- 6 countries (Brazil, Russia, Canada, Indonesia, China, and Colombia) account for half of Earth’s freshwater supply

China’s water supply gap

Impacts of climate change

Source: Dai, A. 2010. Drought under global warming: A review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2:45–65.

Costs of mismanagementCosts of mismanagementAral SeaAral Sea

Water-energy nexus

• In California, water-related energy use consumes 19% of state’s electricity, 30% of its natural gas, and 88 million gallons of diesel fuel every year.

• Over the duration of 1 year, production of electricity to power one 60W incandescent light bulb would evaporate 3,000-6,300 US gallons of water.

Virtual water

>90% of most products’ water footprint lies outside a company’s control.

Source: Wall Street Journal

Water demand outstripping supply

DiscussionSo how is water like oil? How different?

Similar•Both are commodities.•Both are critical inputs to economy.•Both are unevenly distributed.•Both require massive infrastructure and capital investment.•Both are critical to other systems (e.g. agriculture, energy) and highly inter-connected.•Both are highly regulated.•Both are factors in global conflict.

Different•Water is essential for life – part of the public commons.•Water is local; oil is global.•Water is infinitely renewable; oil is non-renewable.•Water is highly undervalued.•Water conflict tends to be erosive rather than explosive.

How to close the gap?

1. Produce more crop per drop.

2. Enhance water productivity.

3. Develop new technologies.

4. Accelerate corporate efforts.

5. Overcome systemic barriers.

Produce more crop per drop

The Challenge: Double food production in 40 years with same land & water.

Approaches:• Create market signals to deliver & apply

water to crops more efficiently.• Utilize crop & production innovations to

increase yields & reduce resource use.• Shift diets to satisfy nutritional needs with

less water.• Consider water in global trade policy.

Source: Amy Vickers and Sandra Postel, “Boosting Water Productivity”, State of the World Report.

Enhance water productivity (India)

Enhance water productivity (China)

Enhance water productivity (China)

• Most of the savings, some $24 billion, come from industrial efficiency measures.

e.g. thermal power, wastewater reuse, pulp/paper, textiles, steel.

• A basin-by-basin approach is needed to assess the most cost-effective levers.

• Meeting growing water demand will require a balanced portfolio of levers.

• The water-energy nexus presents additional challenges and opportunities.

Super-critical coal processing Coke dry-quenching/waste heat

capture Renewable energy

Develop new water technologies• Global investment in water infrastructure >$400B annually.• Pent-up demand.

1. Agriculture• Drip irrigation

• can reduce water use 30-70% and increase crop yields by 20-90%.

• High-yielding & early-maturing crop varieties, deficit irrigation.

2. Urban/Industrial• Desalination, sewage treatment, disinfection technologies, filter systems.• Pervasive monitoring systems; analytics.• Large market for water efficiency technologies in buildings.• Integrated solutions for energy/water nexus.

3. Wastewater• Disinfection technologies & filter systems.• Waste separation & recycling technologies for households.

Source: Deutsche Bank Report “Global Water Markets: High investment requirements mixed with institutional risks” (2010)

Watergy solutions

Accelerate corporate efforts

Levi-Strauss Coca-Cola Puma

Waterless Jeans Water Neutrality Accounting for Nature

Overcome systemic barriers

1. Financial• Insufficient access to capital• High upfront costs and transaction costs

2. Political• Some interventions disproportionately affect certain constituencies (e.g.

dams)• Subsidies distort price signals, so user doesn’t see true costs.

3. Structural• Opportunities are fragmented, and it’s difficult to measure savings.• Limited management capabilities

4. Psychological• Water has low mindshare, and end-users aren’t aware of benefits.

Contact:Dr. Daniel Vermeer

Associate Professor of the PracticeExecutive Director, Center for Energy, Development, and the Global

EnvironmentDuke Universitydv24@duke.edu(919)660-1966

Discussion

"When the well's dry, we know the worth of water."Benjamin Franklin, (1706-1790),

Poor Richard's Almanac