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Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Land Stewardship Plans
Land Trust Rally
Friday, October 28, 2016
What to expect
1) What are projected climate changes and how will they affect ecosystems across the U.S. and Canada?
What to expect
2) How can you apply all of this information to your work?
• Priorities will depend on your goals for your properties.
• Adaptation might not look that different from what you’re already doing.
• We can work with uncertainty!
How might climate change alter your
land stewardship goals and activities?
Activity #1
• New challenges?
• New opportunities?
Two Questions
1. How might climate change affect the resources that I work to protect?
2. What actions could help prepare for those effects?
A2A1BB1
CSIRO
MIROC
HAD
Plan for a Range
Least
Projected
Change
Most
Projected
Change
CSIRO (A1B) HAD (A1B) MIROC (A1B) MIROC (A2)
Change in Mean Monthly Temperature (°C)2070-2099 vs 1961-1990
Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in response to climate change.
Ecosystem-based adaptation activities build on the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration.
Adaptation Options
Manage for Persistence:Ecosystems are still recognizable as being the same system (character)
Resistance
Transition(Response)
Resilience
Manage for Change:Ecosystems have fundamentally changed to something different
Resistance (persistence)
Improve the defenses of the ecosystem against effects of change.
• Short-term
• High-value
Millar et al. 2007Photo: USFS
Desired Future
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
Resistance (persistence)
Increasing resources needed to maintain desired conditions
Higher risk
Resilience (persistence)
Accommodate some degree of change or disruption, but be able to return to a similar condition after disturbance
Holling 1973, Millar et al. 2007Photo: USFS
Thinning stands to improve overall health & vigor Management of vegetation following disturbance
TIME
Climate ChangeTrajectory
?
Resilience (persistence)
Increasing resources needed to maintain desired conditions
Higher risk
Transition (change)
Intentionally encourage change, help ecosystems respond in a targeted fashion
Millar et al. 2007
• Foster future-adapted native species• Managed relocation/assisted migration• Increased connectivity for migration• Manage refugia
Option
Strategy
Approach
Tactic
CONCEPT
ACTION
Resistance TransitionResilience
Manage for Persistence:
Ecosystems are still recognizable
as being the same system
Manage for Change:
Ecosystems have fundamentally
changed to something different.
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
• Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management Workbook approach
Forest Adaptation Resources
• 10 strategies, 40 approaches
• Result of literature review & expert
feedback and review
• Provides a “menu” of possible
actions to chose from based upon
your needs
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Swanston et al. 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
Management Goals & Objectives
Climate Change Impacts
Intent of Adaptation (Option)
Make Idea Specific(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement(Tactic)
Challenges & Opportunities
Why it’s important:Helps connect the dots from broad concepts to specific actions for
implementation.
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Sustain fundamental ecological functions
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Option: Resistance (forestall change)
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Maintain or restore hydrology
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS Use water control structures to maintain key wetland habitats
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS Plant future-adapted species (e.g., oak) on south-facing slopes
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Emphasize drought-and heat-tolerant
species & populations
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
Facilitate community adjustments through
species transitions
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Option: Transition(facilitate change)
Swanston et al. 2016; www.adaptationworkbook.org
Adaptation WorkbookA structured process to integrate climate change
considerations into management planning and activities
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of
implemented actions.
Vulnerability assessments, scientific literature, and other
resources
Adaptation Strategies and
Approaches
Adaptation Libraryhttp://adaptationpartners.org/library.php
Adaptation strategies and tactics for the western U.S.
ADAPTATION EXAMPLE:
THE NATURE CONSERVANCY’S CAROLINE LAKE PRESERVE
Owned by The Nature Conservancy
About 1,000 acres of forest
Acquired from industrial ownership in 1997
Working forest to demonstrate sustainable forestry practices
Goals:
Maintain historically characteristic forest communities.
Maintain contribution to downstream water quality.
Encourage mid- to late-successional forests that emulate natural disturbance dynamics.
Climate change considerations, challenges, and
opportunities:
Reduced lake-effect snow - potential for deer browsing on vegetation.
Reduced and fluctuating water levels – stress on forests and forested wetlands.
Declines in habitat – tree species such as black spruce and balsam fir.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Increases in habitat - red oak, white pine, and several other species that currently occur in parts of the preserve.
Unique site and location may offer opportunities for refugia.
IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for
implementation.
Promote tree species that are expected to fare better under climate change, like red oak and white pine.
Convert a portion of an upland hardwoods stand to a red oak forest where natural regeneration is present.
Reserve high-quality pockets of hemlock to serve as refugia for that species.
Maintain lowland conifers as a no harvest reserve area and increase monitoring to detect hydrological changes in peatland systems.
Activity #2
In this activity you will use your knowledge and expertise to identify adaptation approaches and tactics for a specific scenario.
Activity #2
As a group, select a place or ecosystem to work in.
1) Create and describe a hypothetical (or real!) land stewardship project
– Conditions: Location, site conditions, species composition, disturbance history and susceptibility, etc.
– Typical goals and objectives: What are you hoping to accomplish with this land stewardship project?
1
2
34
5
Activity #2
As a group, select a place or ecosystem to work in.
2) Identify important climate change considerations for this place:
What challenges or opportunities does climate change pose for meeting your stewardship goals?
1
2
34
5
Maps/data for this section courtesy of R. Neilson and MAPSS Vegetation Modeling Lab
To help think about climate change in your region.
Precipitation change (summer and winter)
Temperature change (summer and winter)
Activity #2
Activity #2
What actions can be taken to help your system cope with change AND meet
stewardship goals?
1
2
34
5
Activity #2
What actions can be taken to help your system cope with change AND meet stewardship goals?
Place:
Location and conditions:
Management goals:
Climate change considerations, challenges, and opportunities:
Adaptation Tactics:
1)
2)
3)
…
Activity #2
1. Douglas, Stoesz, Craft
2. Burke, Geiger, Van Der Linden, Bourquin, Register, Pearson
3. Noss, Swanson, Lawson
4. Johnston, Burgess, Brooks, Goglia
5. McCoshum, Pennington, Stokdal, Duus
6. Greer, Koetsier, Lougheed
7. Stolcers, Morton, Tremblay, McMillan
Groups
Identifying Adaptation Tactics
Swanston et al. 2016
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of
implemented actions.