Global Best Practices in Fuel Economy Policies"

Vicente Franco, Peter Mock!ICCT Europe!

Improving fuel economy and reduction of emissions from road transport in Russia!17-18 June 2014, Moscow!

The ICCT: mission and activities �

The mission of ICCT is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of cars, trucks, buses and transportation systems in order to protect and improve public health, the environment, and quality of life. �

§  Non-profit research organization"

§  Air pollution and climate impacts"

§  Focus on regulatory policies and fiscal incentives "

§  Activity across modes including aviation and marine"

§  Global outreach, with special focus on largest markets �

Slide 2 www.theicct.org""

ICCT works in top vehicle markets worldwide to provide high level research"

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Fuel efficiency / CO2 standards are working well…"

Mandatory CO2 regulation in the EU works very well; on a good way to 2020"

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Good progress in the US as well…(example: high-selling passenger cars in the US, 2010 to 2014)"

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3.7! 3.8! 3.9! 4.0! 4.1! 4.2! 4.3! 4.4! 4.5! 4.6!

Fuel

eco

nom

y (k

m/l)!

Vehicle footprint (m2)!

2014 4-cylinder sedans!

2010 4-cylinder sedans!

Fusion!

2012!2013!

2014!

2015!

2016!Accord!

Camry !

Mazda 6!

Mazda 6!i-eLOOP!

Altima!

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Designing a FE / CO2 standard"

Some key points to consider when introducing fuel economy policies"

1. Regulated metric (fuel consumption, GHG, CO2, well-to-tank, well-to-wheel, …)"

2. Form of target curve + underlying attribute (flat, steps, continuous, … weight, footprint, …)"

3. Target / limit value (level of ambition)"

4. Penalties (what happens if targets are missed?)"

5. Accompanying measures(labeling, taxation, …)"

6. On-road compliance (are reductions also realized in “real-world” driving?)"

Some key points to consider when introducing fuel economy policies"

1. Regulated metric (fuel consumption, GHG, CO2, well-to-tank, well-to-wheel, …)"

2. Form of target curve + underlying attribute (flat, steps, continuous, … weight, footprint, …)"

3. Target / limit value (level of ambition)"

4. Penalties (what happens if targets are missed?)"

5. Accompanying measures(labeling, taxation, …)"

6. On-road compliance (are reductions also realized in “real-world” driving?)"

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Country/Region Regulated metric Program details, reduction in CO2-per-distance emissions

European Union# CO2 emissions (CO2/km) 40% reduction, MY 2008-2020 EU NEDC

United States Fuel economy (mi/gal) 42% reduction, MY 2010-2025

U.S. FTP GHG emissions (CO2e/mi)

Japan# Fuel economy (km/L) 30% reduction, MY 2010-2020 Japan JC08

China# Fuel consumption (L/100km) 14% reduction, MY2008-2015 EU NEDC cycle

Canada GHG emissions (CO2e/mi) 24% reduction, MY 2009-2016 U.S. FTP

South Korea Fuel economy (km/L) 12% reduction, MY 2012-2015

U.S. FTP CO2 emissions (CO2/km)

Mexico Fuel economy (km/L) 12% reduction, MY 2011-2016 U.S. FTP

India Fuel economy (km/L) 20% reduction, MY 2010-2020 NEDC for low powered vehicles

#: Separate standards established for light-commercial vehicles"

Some key points to consider when introducing fuel economy policies"

1. Regulated metric (fuel consumption, GHG, CO2, well-to-tank, well-to-wheel, …)"

2. Form of target curve + underlying attribute (flat, steps, continuous, …, weight, footprint, …)"

3. Target / limit value (level of ambition)"

4. Penalties (what happens if targets are missed?)"

5. Accompanying measures(labeling, taxation, …)"

6. On-road compliance (are reductions also realized in “real-world” driving?)"

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Country/ Region

Regulated metric Attribute Form Categories, classes, other provisions

Fuel Economy

Fuel Consumption CO2/GHG Weight Footprint Class Continuous Bins

European Union# X X X Eco-innovations,

super-credits

United States X X X X X 2WD, AC credit, FFV/E85, alternative fuels

Japan X X X Averaging within bins

China X X X X Transmission, per-vehicle limits à corporate average

Canada X X X X AC credits, alternative fuels

South Korea* X X X X Eco-innovations

Mexico X X X X

India X X X

#: CO2 standards complemented by air-conditioning, tyre pressure monitoring, gear-shift indicators etc."* : FE/CO2 standards include consideration for tyre pressure monitoring, gear-shift indicators "

EU CO2 standard for passenger cars"

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50

75

100

125

150

175

200

500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000

g C

O2/

km

Mass of the Vehicle in Running Order (kg)

EU 2015 and 2020 target curves

2020: T = 95 + 0.0333 *(M-M0)

2015: T = 130 + 0.0457 *(M-1372)

China Phase IV standards based on corporate averaging (Jan 2014 proposal)"

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Comparison of target slopes for different markets"

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2017 and 2025 US Cars and Light-Truck Standards"

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100

150

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400

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Gre

enho

use

Gas

Em

issi

ons

(gC

O2e

/mile

)

Footprint (Sq. Ft)

2025 Cars

2025 L-T

2017 Cars

2017 L-T

1 Sq. meter = 10.764 Sq. feet

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Weight-based system strongly reduces weight reduction incentive; not technology neutral"

vehicle weight [kg]

CO2 [g/km] 60% target line

-100 kg

-6 g/km

-100 kg

-6 g/km

Weight-based target system

60% target line

vehicle size [m2]

Footprint-based target system

If manufacturer applies weight reduction, most of the CO2-reduction effect is taken away from him due to now more stringent CO2 target

Manufacturer fully benefits from the CO2-reduction effect of lightweighting

Some key points to consider when introducing fuel economy policies"

1. Regulated metric (fuel consumption, GHG, CO2, well-to-tank, well-to-wheel, …)"

2. Form of target curve + underlying attribute (flat, steps, continuous, … weight, footprint, …)"

3. Target / limit value (level of ambition)"

4. Penalties (what happens if targets are missed?)"

5. Accompanying measures(labeling, taxation, …)"

6. On-road compliance (are reductions also realized in “real-world” driving?)"

Comparison of GHG reduction targets for passenger cars across the world"

Comparison of GHG reduction targets:Annual reduction rates (light-duty vehicles)"

EU 2011: 135

EU 2020: 95

US 2011: 217

US 2025:109 Japan 2010:127

Japan 2020: 105

China 2010: 180

China 2015: 167

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60

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280

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Gra

ms

CO

2 p

er K

ilom

eter

no

rmal

ized

to

NE

DC

EU US-LDV Japan China

[1]$China's$target$reflects$gasoline$fleet$scenario.$If$including$other$fuel$types,$the$target$will$be$lower.$$[2]$US$and$Canada$lightAduty$vehicles$include$lightAcommercial$vehicles.$[3]$Annual$rate$is$calculated$using$baseline$actual$performance$and$target$values.$

China 2020: 117

Annual reduction rate %

4.8%$

4.2%$3.8%$

1.9%$

US$(2011A2025)$

China(2010A2020)$

EU(2011A2020)$

Japan(2010A2020)$

Some key points to consider when introducing fuel economy policies"

1. Regulated metric (fuel consumption, GHG, CO2, well-to-tank, well-to-wheel, …)"

2. Form of target curve + underlying attribute (flat, steps, continuous, … weight, footprint, …)"

3. Target / limit value (level of ambition)"

4. Penalties (what happens if targets are missed?)"

5. Accompanying measures(labeling, taxation, …)"

6. On-road compliance (are reductions also realized in “real-world” driving?)"

Some key points to consider when introducing fuel economy policies"

1. Regulated metric (fuel consumption, GHG, CO2, well-to-tank, well-to-wheel, …)"

2. Form of target curve + underlying attribute (flat, steps, continuous, … weight, footprint, …)"

3. Target / limit value (level of ambition)"

4. Penalties (what happens if targets are missed?)"

5. Accompanying measures(labeling, taxation, …)"

6. On-road compliance (are reductions also realized in “real-world” driving?)"

CO2 labeling example: United Kingdom!

Brazil 2017 INOVAR-AUTO Tax Incentive

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174.4

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700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(E 2

2 FT

P75

in g

/km

)

Vehicle Mass (kg)

2017 INOVAR-AUTO Target MJ/km = 1.155 + 0.000593*M

~ 146 g/km CO2

2% additional tax reduction MJ/km = 1.067 + 0.000547*M

~ 135 g/km CO2

1% additional tax reduction MJ/km = 1.111 + 0.000570*M

~ 140 g/km CO2

Note: All CO2 values measured on FTP (City) cycle. Equivalent combined city-highway values will be ~12% lower.

Some key points to consider when introducing fuel economy policies"

1. Regulated metric (fuel consumption, GHG, CO2, well-to-tank, well-to-wheel, …)"

2. Form of target curve + underlying attribute (flat, steps, continuous, … weight, footprint, …)"

3. Target / limit value (level of ambition)"

4. Penalties (what happens if targets are missed?)"

5. Accompanying measures(labeling, taxation, …)"

6. On-road compliance (are reductions also realized in “real-world” driving?)"

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Growing gap between type-approval and real-world fuel consumption / CO2 emission values"

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Some final thoughts…"

Global CO2 emissions stabilized by car efficiency standards in 2025, despite doubling of vehicles"

Source: ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap model!

Efficiency measures show greatest effect. Mode shift / activity reduction potential estimated to be significantly smaller."

Efficiency standards are working around the globe, ICCT as knowledge hub for local governments"

Adopted and “Pipeline” emission reductions from policies that ICCT is working on."

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Vicente Franco (030) 847.129.109 vicente@theicct.org

www.theicct.org!§  ICCT Passenger Vehicles website: http://www.theicct.org/passenger-vehicles "§  ICCT Staff blog: http://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff"§  Global Passenger Vehicle Standards Update:

http://www.theicct.org/global-passenger-vehicle-standards-update "§  US CAFE Standards: http://www.theicct.org/policies/us-cafe-standards "§  EU LDV CO2 Regulation: http://www.theicct.org/policies/eu-light-duty-vehicle-co2-regulation "§  Review and Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Policies to promote fuel economy:

http://www.theicct.org/review-and-comparative-analysis-fiscal-policies "§  CO2 Standards: http://www.theicct.org/issues/co2-standards "

More information …"

Thank you "

Vicente Franco, Peter Mock, Joshua Miller!ICCT Europe!

Improving fuel economy and reduction of emissions from road transport in Russia!17-18 June 2014, Moscow!

спасибо