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Overview, scope of work, and preliminary conclusions of ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap.
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ICCT Global Transportation RoadmapOverview
March/2012
Overview and Scope of Work
Slide 2
Pollutants• Local air pollutants (NOx, SOx, CO, PM)• GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O)
Modes• On-road (LDVs, buses, 2 and 3 wheelers, HDTs)• Rail• Marine (domestic/international)• Aviation (domestic/international)
Regions• United States, EU-27, China, India, Japan, Brazil,
South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Russia, Rest of Latin America, Rest of Europe, Rest of Asia-Pacific, Middle-East, and Africa.
Years• 2000 to 2050 in 5-year increments
Outputs• WTW/WTT/TTW emissions• Energy consumption• Vehicle stock and sales
The Roadmap is a tool to help policymakers worldwide identify and understand trends in the transportation sector, assess emission impacts of different policy options, and frame plans to effectively reduce emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local air pollutants.
The core of the Roadmap is a spreadsheet-based model developed in Microsoft Excel that calculates historical and future well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions from the transportation sector for different policy scenarios.
The Roadmap compares the effects of policies that have been adopted and those that are under active discussion with the policy potential for the largest vehicle markets.
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Roadmap ModelSpreadsheet Structure
POLICY LEVERS
LDV CALCULATIONSLDV INPUTS
BUS CALCULATIONSBUS INPUTS
2-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS
2-WHEELERS INPUTS
3-WHEELERS CALCULATIONS
3-WHEELERS INPUTS
LHDT CALCULATIONSLHDT INPUTS
MHDT CALCULATIONSMHDT INPUTS
HHDT CALCULATIONSHHDT INPUTS
PASSENGER RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS
FREIGHT RAIL INPUTS / CALCULATIONS
AVIATION INPUTS / CALCULATIONS
WATERBORNE INPUTS / CALCULATIONS
MODEL OUTPUTS
FUEL INPUTS
TURNOVER MODULE
SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE
COUNTRY DASHBOARD
SYSTEM CONFIGURATION
SUMMARY OF OUTPUTS
MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS AND CALCULATIONS
NON MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS
OUTPUTS
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Roadmap ModelSimplified Emission Calculation Methodology
SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS
TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITY
VEHICLE ACTIVITY
FUEL CONSUMPTION
WTT EMISSIONS
WTW EMISSIONS
VEHICLE POPULATION
TTW EMISSIONS
VEHICLE SALES
VEHICLE SALES BY
TECHNOLOGY
NEW FLEET ENERGY
EFFICIENCY TTW EMISSION FACTORS
WTT EMISSION FACTORS
INPUTS
OUTPUTS
CALCULATIONS
∞ TURNOVER ALGORITHM
LEGEND
∞
∞∞
∞EMISSION
STANDARDS
FUEL BLENDS
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Emission Reduction Strategies
IMPROVE
•Vehicle efficiency improvements•Faster introduction of emission standards•“Decarbonization” of fuels and electricity•Low sulfur fuels
AVOID
•Transportation activity reduction through travel demand management, land-use policies, and improvements in efficiency of passenger and freight transportation systems.
SHIFT
•Mode shift to less energy-intensive modes (passenger and freight).
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Policy Trajectories
1.7
1.3
2.5
85% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS
50% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS
2030 GHG SAVINGS (GtCO2e) ADOPTED POLICIESIncludes existing, enforceable and finalized regulations but assumes no further changes.
POLICY PIPELINEConsiders all policies under active regulatory development or that exist as formal, stated policy goals.
POLICY POTENTIALIncludes technically feasible policies and plausible regulatory timelines, without any consideration of political will.
NO POLICIES CASEAssumes no policies adopted post 2000. Intended only to be used for quantification of Adopted Policies.
Adopted policies and those in the pipeline are not sufficient to revert the trend in increasing transportation emissions. The Policy Potential more than doubles the possible GHG savings and results in relatively stable emissions out to 2030.
Global GHG Savings from Transportation Policies
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Transportation policies have the potential to reduce GHG emissions by 35% in 2030 (from a 2030 baseline assuming no transportation policies), equivalent to a total reduction of 5.5 GtCO2e.
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Global GHG Savings from Transportation Policies
Breakdown of GHG Savings from Adopted Policies in 2030
ADOPTED POLICIES The majority of adopted policies in the transportation sector have targeted efficiency standards for light and heavy-duty vehicles, and waterborne vessels. These are expected to result in substantial emission savings –1.7 GtCO2e in 2030.
POLICY PIPELINEPolicies in the pipeline continue the successful approach of vehicle efficiency standards expanding light and heavy-duty standards into additional regions and adding aircraft standards. The pipeline also includes investments in public transit and freight rail. Combined, these policies are expected to result in savings of 1.3 GtCO2e in 2030.
Breakdown of GHG Savings from Policy Pipeline in 2030
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Policy Progress
Economic and demographic trends have some effect – either positive or negative depending on the region – on the efficiency of the transportation system. However, most of the impact on transportation efficiency improvement is expected from policies. An example below is provided for the U.S., showing how transportation policies have the potential to substantially improve how regions move people and freight.
BUBBLE SIZE: CO2e Emissions
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Planned Deliverables
Roadmap Model– Excel spreadsheet that calculates historical and future
transportation emissions by mode and region based on different policy scenarios.
Global Climate Report– Evaluation of impact from adopted, prospective, and
potential policies on GHG emissions from transportation in key regions.
Global Health Report– Evaluation of health impacts from adopted, prospective,
and potential transportation policies in key regions.