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21/10/2015

The Operational Railway – Severe Weather Events and Climate Change

Dr Brian D Haddock

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Contents

Current extreme weather events and associated risksSeasonal variation and associated risksClimate Change – Frequency and Intensity of Events Mitigating seasonal variation and extreme weather eventsProcesses for managing and mitigating weather risksFuture Risks UKCP09 modelsTomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adaptation

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Weather-impact on train services…Schedule 8

01/05/23

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Weather-impact on train services…Schedule 8 delay

01/05/23

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Impact of river flood…

Cowley Bridge, Devon 25th November 2013

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Surface water flooding January/February 2014…

Maidenhead

Somerset Levels

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Impact of rainfall on earthworks…

Teignmouth, Devon 28th November 2013

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Impact on safety…

SAFETY

RISK

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Train borne - mitigation

• MPV and RHTT trains (main mitigation) which water jet ground-in leaf debris off the rails at 1,500 bar pressure. These are deployed across the country, already up and running

Autumn Management:

PDG > Phil Hufton1 May 2023 9

Seasonal Planning and Mitigation – Autumn and Winter

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Autumnal Weather Conditions• Despite all the prep, performance will depend on the weather. Wet,

windy/stormy days have a very high impact• New weather forecasting and EWATs in place to anticipate and

manage• severity of the season depends on how many of those we get

• So far the weather has been benign but the forecast is generally for an ‘active’ autumn

• Impact of storms is significant for performance as in autumn 2013

Autumn Management:

PDG > Phil Hufton1 May 2023 10

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Minute delay – storm events

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Winter Management PDG > Phil Hufton

1 May 2023 11

• Winter – Industry Ready• Good cross industry working with NTF and ATOC on winter preparedness• ‘Off the shelf’ winter timetables available if heavy snow is forecast -

developed between routes and TOCs• A well rehearsed and developed Extreme Weather Process with forecast

warning system• TOC preparation of their own fleet for heavy snow conditions

Severe Weather Warning Page

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Winter Management PDG > Phil Hufton

1 May 2023 12

• Seasonal fleet equipped and ready to run to de-ice conductor rails and plough snow

• Delivery Units prepared - equipment checks undertaken on infrastructure

• Station, depots and walk ways prepared for gritting and ice clearance

• Route proving locomotives

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Affects of changing weather patterns – Intensity & Frequency – Dawlish Sea Wall (Devon) 4th Feb 2014 – 40 m

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Lineside Neighbours

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Autumn Management: PDG > Robin Gisby

1 May 2023 16

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£14 Million to repair

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Measures introduced to mitigate the causes of disruption…

Snow and Ice Treatment Trains and Points Enhancement

Targeted tree clearance for resilience in high

winds

Improved drainage management

Coastal defence review

Earthworks remote monitoring

01/05/23

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Demountable Flood Defences

Mitigate the consequences of disruption…

Flood Hungary 2014 Large-scale pumps

High Marnham 2013

01/05/23

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Coastal Alerts Identify Vulnerable Earthworks

Improving weather forecasting accuracy

Flood Alerts at high risk sites

Mitigate the consequences of disruption…introduced to mitigate the consequences of disruption…

01/05/23

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Climate Change Predictions: Heat

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pera

ture

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nge

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) 2080s

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Kent

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Climate Change Predictions: (Winter) Rain

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The UK Climate Change Projections 2009 anticipates that, by 2080 under the medium emission scenarios, the UK climate will change as follows:

•Mean daily maximum temperatures (2080s relative to 1961-1990, medium emissions) are projected to increase across the UK. Increases in the summer average are up to 5.4ºC (2.2 to 9.5ºC) in parts of southern England

•Variations of summer and winter precipitations of between -40% and +33% respectively

Phase 1 – Examples of future climate change

• Sea level rise of between 12 and 76cm by 2095 (compared with a 1980-99 baseline)

• Changes in storm surge. For example in the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary, an increase in 50-yr surge return level of around 0.8mm per year

• Increase in the number of lightning days are projected for all four seasons across the whole of the UK

TRaCCA- Tomorrows Railway and Climate Change Adaptation

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What are we doing about the climate scenarios?T1009 = Tomorrow’s Railway and Climate Change Adaptation Programme

A RSSB funded research study sponsored by the Technical Strategy Leadership Group (TSLG)

T1009 explores the need to increase the resilience of the GB railway in response to anticipated changes in key climate variables

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Future climate change will impact the GB railway – as a whole system and its sub-systems

The rail industry has commissioned T1009 to improve industry understanding of these impacts and provide support tools for adaptation / resilience decisions

A system-wide approach is important when considering targeted and prioritised investments

T1009 is considering the whole GB railway system and its global supply chains

Even a small change in average temperatures will have a significant impact on the system

Some lessons – many – are relevant for the infrastructure ‘sector’ more widely

Why is this important?

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1. What is the projected climatic change in the UK over the next 50 years?

2. What are the likely impacts of climate change and extreme weather on the railway?

3. What actions can be taken by GB rail industry in response to these potential impacts?

4. What are the proposed future actions, including 'quick wins' which can be implemented over the next few years?

5. What are the requirements for additional decision support frameworks, processes, and tools, to permit cost-effective action to be taken?

Key questions that T1009 has been asked to clarify

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T1009 Programme

October 2015 April 2019

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There is a wide range of climate change and extreme weather related impacts that could potentially affect the GB railway system, its subsystems, and related assets.

Weather impact is currently estimated to cost the industry 1.6 million delay minutes a year, or about £50 million a year (source: Network Rail Analysis Report, September 2014).

Forecasting the next few days’ weather will be an increasing challenge.

Phase 1 - Impacts of Climate Change

Nature of climate change Possible impacts

High temperatures Rail buckling, excessive overhead line sag, passenger/worker discomfort

Low temperatures Damage, disruption, slips, trips and falls, reduced brake effectiveness from snow and ice falls

High precipitation events Earthworks failure and landslides, slips, trips and falls, bridge scour, floods

High sea levels and storm surge

Coastal erosion, damage to sea walls, earthwork failure)

High winds Damage to equipment and lineside fires

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Phase 2 Learning points Task 4 – The railway: a ‘System of Systems’, lead UCL/ Beckford Consulting

Illustrated schematically across seven areas

Includes ‘Supply Chain’ and ‘Governance’

Organisationally nested

Lower levels given the remit to act from higher levels

Different timescales can apply

Need ‘feedback’ between levels for optimal management

Informative and timely as a systems approach is advocated by UK Regulators’ Network among others

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Impacts and potential resilience measures

Temperature

Precipitation

Weather Events

Sea Level Rise

Extreme High

Rail buckling

Passenger Discomfort

Extreme Low

Ice build-on rolling stock

Freeze thaw at cuttings

Rapid Changes

Lineside electronic equipment affecting power, signalling,

telecomms

• Maintain tracks to more resistant specifications

• Clutter-free design for underside of vehicles

• De-icing measures used prior to entry into service

• Rock removal activity on a cyclic basis & Netting of rock cuttingsExtreme High

Flooding

Scour of Bridge Piers

Landslips

Extreme Winds

Catenary failure

Tree Fall Coastal Flooding

eg: Dawlish BUT DON”T FORGET WALES etc!!

Extreme Drought

Dessication of clay formations

Increased Humidity

Leaf contamination

Loss of braking mu

Loss of track circuits

Lightning

Interference with electronics

EMC

• Improve drainage

• Improve scour protection

• Vegetation management

• Protect vulnerable slopes

• Rebuild embankments

• Institute warning systems

• Vegetation management

• Adapt Rolling Stock

• Catenary maintenance

• Robust control systems

• Redundant power systems

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T1009 is delivering useful outputs for the rail industry. Organisations which have engaged the most are likely to benefit the most

System of systems approach confirms the importance of interdependencies and interfaces, some of which lie with organisations outside of the rail industry

Consensus from other countries and asset managers is that GB railway is an exemplar and is a leading example of good practice

A number of analogue countries have been identified:France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Denmark

There are no ‘silver bullets’ that other countries have!

Remaining challenge is how to make the information and research accessible to all

Summary