Hamid MAHYOUNational Institute for Agronomic Research - Morocco

www.inra.org.ma

COP22 Side Event, 16 November 2016, Marrakesh, Morocco

Climate Risk Management: Experience of Morocco

In Morocco, agriculture is an important sector for the national economy.

Its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranges from 15 to 20% depending on the seasons.

Agriculture (including fishing) is the first sector provider of employment (38% of national employment and 75% of employment in rural areas).

The sector plays an important role in terms of food security and sustainable development.

In Morocco, as in most of the Mediterranean countries, the cereal system (i.e. cereals/livestock/olive tree) is predominant.

Climate information is a prerequisite for managing agricultural climate risks in Morocco.

3

Agriculture in Morocco: Main risks

Source: Min. of Agriculture

41

21

10 8 6 4 3 27

Chart Title

OthersHailFloodsFrostWater stressHigh temperatures

Hot windsPests and diseases

Meteorological drought

80%

- Humidity

- Pollution

- Fires

- Strong winds

- Cold

Climate services for the agricultural sector are in development since the beginning of the 1990s in Morocco, thanks to a strong collaboration between the Min. of Agriculture, the Met. Administration and European and international research and development institutions, since the 2000s.

Innovative tools (MOSAICC, CGMS) have been already developed in Morocco for impact assessment purposes and index-based crop insurance.

Scientific contribution

http://www.inra.org.ma/publications/ouvrages/prediction1113en.pdf http://www.inra.ma/docs/accagrimag/assagric/comp1liv1.pdf

Impact Factor: 8.145

Impact Factor: 3.36

Technological contribution

"Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change" (MOSAICC)http://www.changementclimatique.ma/ ;

Crop monitoring and forecasting system of Morocco (CGMS-Maroc) http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/.

MOSAICC : An integrated modelling system for CC impact assessement

www.changementclimatique.ma

The MOSAICC dissemination portal

Balaghi et al., 2016

Changement climatique / rendements blés (RCP8.5)

http://www.changementclimatique.ma/

2010 - 2039 2040 - 2069 2070 - 2099

The water balance for the MIROC-ESM (top), CanESM2 (middle) and MPI-ESM-LR (bottom) for the RCP4.5 (top of each GCM) and the RCP8.5 (bottom of each GCM) scenarios for the periods 2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100. The data were compared to the historical data of each GCM. Positive values indicate an increase in water availability compared to the 1971 – 2000 period, negative values a decrease.

www.changementclimatique.ma

MOSAICC project : Climate change impact assessment

Comparison of species distribution in the forest of Maâmora without disturbance, 2010/2090 (Model CanESM2)

www.changementclimatique.ma

MOSAICC project : Climate change impact assessment

CGMS-MAROC project : The official cereal yield forecasting system

Weather indicators: • Rainfall• T° max, T°min, T° avg• ET0• Rain/ET0• Radiation• Etc.

Vegetation indicators: • NDVI (SPOT & Proba-V)

Simulation model indicators: • Water limited yield biomass• Water limited yield storage• Relative soil moisture• Etc.

At grid level, and then aggregated at administrative levels (region, province, commune)

28 indices

CGMS-MAROC project : The official cereal yield forecasting system

www.cgms-maroc.ma

ACCAGRIMAG project : Index-based crop insurance

Balaghi et al., 2015

Bulletin dissemination

ConclusionThere is a need for more collaboration and capacity building, for addressing the wide

scope of climate services needs.There is a need for reinforcing the meteorological network to cope with spatial

climate variability in Morocco.The Moroccan experience could serve other countries in Africa (Triple A initiative).

http://www.changementclimatique.ma/

Demonstration

http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/geoext

http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/geoext/test.php

شكراMerci

Thank you